4 ms·

> The introduction of Apple’s headset marks a major competitive threat." An idiot like me thinks the opposite: it validates the market and thus justifies furth

> The introduction of Apple’s headset marks a major competitive threat." An idiot like me thinks the opposite: it validates the market and thus justifies further spending to Facebook investors.

kaliqt 3y ago
It's both. Good if you use it, very bad if you ignore it.
sigmoid10 3y ago
I wouldn't say it validates the market. At least not the market Facebook is going for. The ultra high-end market might be ripe for disruption after so many big companies failed at producing a super expensive MR device, but rumors say Apple plans to ship as little as 200k units in the first year. The entire Quest line has already sold north of 20M units, with most of that coming from the entry level models Quest 1 and 2.
teachrdan 3y ago
This is the kind of thing a CEO says to fire up the troops. It is intended to encourage Meta employees to work harder on VR because now they're "threatened."
ravst3s 3y ago
Reality Labs is going to burn at least $16 bn in '23 and '24. Meta can't really spend much more money on this business. I think investors will mandate clarity on how the spending is bucketed and see a mix shift to HW rather than Metaverse SW. Financially, RL is the worst business on earth. No other business has lost this much money in such a short period of time.
- baby 3y ago
  > Financially, RL is the worst business on earth. No other business has lost this much money in such a short period of time. This is like saying, the US is the worst country on earth because of it's debt. The reality is, if you have money and you don't invest it, it loses value.
  - ravst3s 3y ago
    Of course the options for Meta are limited on what they could do with that cash. M&A is a non-starter, and there isn't much more they could do in FB/IG/WA. Meta already does share buybacks as well. However, the opportunity cost, such as offer cloud services or SaaS products, is what they've lost. I'm sure investors hope they become more rational in their RL capital allocation and investors would certainly prefer more share buybacks instead. Investing in RL is not a bad idea if it can drive significant top-line growth. However, unless RL turns into one of the best businesses on earth (like FoA), it will never delivered a positive ROI since its inception. US debt is similar in that it's invested capital, but it does provide a positive contribution to GDP. If the US stops growing, our debt will become a massive issue.
    - baby 3y ago
      I totally agree on the cloud service side though. I don't understand why they don't offer a competitor considering how good of a product they could create. When asked, Mark always says that a cloud platform wouldn't be related to their mission (connecting people).
rvz 3y ago
> it validates the market and thus justifies further spending to Facebook investors. Precisely. Apple has validated this product category and Meta has already established being a viable competitor in XR. Even if Apple prices it high, Meta is going to win on quantity and price, just like Google did for Android, and Microsoft did for Windows. Not even the Apple fanboys would buy this, unless they are developers or having this as a collectable who think that every product Apple releases is going to be an instant hit like the iPhone. I don't think it is this version of the Vision product line. It will probably be the third generation that comes in the slimmed down glasses form factor and slightly cheaper.

> The introduction of Apple’s headset marks a major competitive threat." An idiot like me thinks the opposite: it validates the market and thus justifies further spending to Facebook investors.

kaliqt 3y ago

It's both. Good if you use it, very bad if you ignore it.

sigmoid10 3y ago

I wouldn't say it validates the market. At least not the market Facebook is going for. The ultra high-end market might be ripe for disruption after so many big companies failed at producing a super expensive MR device, but rumors say Apple plans to ship as little as 200k units in the first year. The entire Quest line has already sold north of 20M units, with most of that coming from the entry level models Quest 1 and 2.

teachrdan 3y ago

This is the kind of thing a CEO says to fire up the troops. It is intended to encourage Meta employees to work harder on VR because now they're "threatened."

ravst3s 3y ago

Reality Labs is going to burn at least $16 bn in '23 and '24. Meta can't really spend much more money on this business. I think investors will mandate clarity on how the spending is bucketed and see a mix shift to HW rather than Metaverse SW. Financially, RL is the worst business on earth. No other business has lost this much money in such a short period of time.

baby 3y ago
> Financially, RL is the worst business on earth. No other business has lost this much money in such a short period of time. This is like saying, the US is the worst country on earth because of it's debt. The reality is, if you have money and you don't invest it, it loses value.
- ravst3s 3y ago
  Of course the options for Meta are limited on what they could do with that cash. M&A is a non-starter, and there isn't much more they could do in FB/IG/WA. Meta already does share buybacks as well. However, the opportunity cost, such as offer cloud services or SaaS products, is what they've lost. I'm sure investors hope they become more rational in their RL capital allocation and investors would certainly prefer more share buybacks instead. Investing in RL is not a bad idea if it can drive significant top-line growth. However, unless RL turns into one of the best businesses on earth (like FoA), it will never delivered a positive ROI since its inception. US debt is similar in that it's invested capital, but it does provide a positive contribution to GDP. If the US stops growing, our debt will become a massive issue.
  - baby 3y ago
    I totally agree on the cloud service side though. I don't understand why they don't offer a competitor considering how good of a product they could create. When asked, Mark always says that a cloud platform wouldn't be related to their mission (connecting people).

rvz 3y ago

> it validates the market and thus justifies further spending to Facebook investors. Precisely. Apple has validated this product category and Meta has already established being a viable competitor in XR. Even if Apple prices it high, Meta is going to win on quantity and price, just like Google did for Android, and Microsoft did for Windows. Not even the Apple fanboys would buy this, unless they are developers or having this as a collectable who think that every product Apple releases is going to be an instant hit like the iPhone. I don't think it is this version of the Vision product line. It will probably be the third generation that comes in the slimmed down glasses form factor and slightly cheaper.