I agree with the guess, that's likely to happen because a) if you're already using the official app you don't care about increased tracking or monetization and

I agree with the guess, that's likely to happen because a) if you're already using the official app you don't care about increased tracking or monetization and b) most are unaware of spez. The only bit I don't agree with is viable competitors, the problem is a little deeper, in that even if there was a viable competitor people still won't move because it's not an exact clone and continuation of their profile (follower numbers, interaction expectations, etc). The rest of your assumptions remain, but I think this is a bit important to talk about so we don't mislead people into creating clones that never take off when they could be creating something new that will take off.