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Meanwhile in China: - exports plunge by 7.5% in May, far more than expected https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/07/chinas-exports-plunge-by-7point5percent-in-may-far-

Meanwhile in China: - exports plunge by 7.5% in May, far more than expected https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/07/chinas-exports-plunge-by-7point5percent-in-may-far-more-than-expected.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/07/chinas-exports-plunge-by-7po... - profit tumbles 18% in April https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-industrial-profits-tumble-4th-straight-month-april-2023-05-27/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-industrial-profits... - chip progress stagnating. Oppo chip design unit completely shut down https://techcrunch.com/2023/05/12/oppo-chip-disbands-phone-china/ https://techcrunch.com/2023/05/12/oppo-chip-disbands-phone-c.... Japan stops shipping semiconductor equipments to China https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Japan-chip-export-curb-to-China-will-take-effect-in-July https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Japan-c.... China is still stuck on 14nm chips. - multinationals moving supply chains out of China faster than ever. Tesla asks Chinese suppliers to build plants in Mexico (June '23) https://cnevpost.com/2023/06/08/tesla-asks-chinese-suppliers-plants-mexico-report/ https://cnevpost.com/2023/06/08/tesla-asks-chinese-suppliers.... BYD make EVs in Vietnam (May '23) https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinese-automaker-byd-make-evs-vietnam-2023-05-08/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chines.... On top of older news this year that Apple wants Foxconn to move out 50% of its production lines from China by 2025. And Dell's production completely out of China by 2027. China is no longer the "world's factory". It will stagnate for 10+ years, similar to Japan's lost decades, but with worser birth rate than Japan today. It reported 8M babies in 2022, low that was last reached in 1940s. We've never seen a large portion (25%+) of a large modern economy vanish in a span of a few years. (factories moving out, which decreases downstream economic activities such as real estate and retail).

AnimalMuppet 3y ago
8 million babies for a population of 1.2 billion? Woah. Back of the envelope, that's something like half replacement rate.
- marianatom 3y ago
  Yeah and that's not the crazy part. There's a 50% drop in marriage rate in 2023 compared to 2022.
  - spywaregorilla 3y ago
    Source? I see marriage rates falling by about 50% over the past decade. But this claim seems unlikely, or perhaps just badly skewed by the seasonality of things.
    - guardiangod 3y ago
      He is probably talking about the "520" Marriage Day. May 20 is a popular national marriage day (due to tradition) and many couples choose to get marry on that day in China. This year's 520 marriage rate is ~40% of last year's. https://xueqiu.com/5539280156/251074532 https://xueqiu.com/5539280156/251074532
- lotsofpulp 3y ago
  I cannot find a source for 8M babies. I see 9.56M births in 2022 for China: https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3207109/china-population-7-takeaways-2022-figures https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/320... https://www.statista.com/statistics/250650/number-of-births-in-china/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/250650/number-of-births-...
- guardiangod 3y ago
  Not sure where he got his stats from, but 9.56 million sounds about right. https://news.sina.cn/gn/2023-01-17/detail-imyanfvn6707213.d.html https://news.sina.cn/gn/2023-01-17/detail-imyanfvn6707213.d.... (Figure 3) 2017 - 17.23 million 2018 - 15.23 2019 - 14.65 2020 - 12.00 2021 - 10.62 2022 - 9.56 Note that this is official Chinese gov statistics. Their numbers are known to be untrustworthy.
  - AnimalMuppet 3y ago
    Falling in half in six years? Again, woah. Any idea what's driving that?
    - Aerbil313 3y ago
      Modernity. The Industrial Revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race…
      - uoaei 3y ago
        With a larger population combined with more of a chance of living past the age of 5, you need fewer births to get the same population growth rate globally. As the world population rapidly urbanizes we will settle into a new normal that will still approach Earth's carrying capacity faster than we can adequately react.
        Aerbil313 3y ago
        Human population has overshot in 1971[1], what are you talking about? Carrying capacity has long been exceeded, we’re living thanks to the phantom carrying capacity[2]. 1: https://medium.com/@CollapseSurvival/overshoot-why-its-already-too-late-to-save-civilization-e834cb4ec694 https://medium.com/@CollapseSurvival/overshoot-why-its-alrea... 2: https://www.resilience.org/stories/2005-03-06/dependence-phantom-carrying-capacity/ https://www.resilience.org/stories/2005-03-06/dependence-pha...
        3y ago
euroderf 3y ago
By your numbers and those of others, both Eastasia and Eurasia are taking it on the chin. Oceania suffers from sociopolitical rot but the economy is pretty lively.
mhuffman 3y ago
> China is no longer the "world's factory". It will stagnate for 10+ years, similar to Japan's lost decades, but with worser birth rate than Japan today. idk, Japan seems like it thought the party would go on forever, whereas China does seem to have clear eyes with it comes to world politics (eg. long-term investment in the rest of Asia and Africa). > We've never seen a large portion (25%+) of a large modern economy vanish in a span of a few years. Do you recall NAFTA? or the quick rise of China not long after? These are still studied as huge exogenous economic shocks in business schools!
- marianatom 3y ago
  > China does seem to have clear eyes with it comes to world politics You're hyping up Xi Jing Ping, who is considered an idiot in most elite circles including Putin, too much. One belt and one road is now considered a failure with Italy, the most prominent member, dropping out of it this year. Most of the countries that took on the debt are unable to pay it back, and China has had to forgive a lot of the loans recently. And no one has aligned US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, India, Australia, Nato quite like China in recent years. The most recent focus in G7 was squarely on China. > NAFTA with respect to NAFTA, US manufacturing only consisted of 15% US economy in 1994 https://www.stlouisfed.org/en/on-the-economy/2017/april/us-manufacturing-really-declining https://www.stlouisfed.org/en/on-the-economy/2017/april/us-m..., whereas Chinese manufacturing consisted 30% of China's economy today. Also, the difference is, the laborers in US manufacturing moved to other higher paying jobs, as a result, average income went from 25k to 30k in 2000. Whereas what we're seeing now with Chinese laborers is that they're moving back home to countryside to farm (< $1 a day)
  - mhuffman 3y ago
    >You're hyping up Xi Jing Ping, who is considered an idiot in most elite circles including Putin, too much. I don't really care what Putin says but I do think they are thinking more long-term. Only here and in Europe do people think in terms of election cycles. Don't get me wrong, I am not a Xi fanboy, and I definitely don't want to the US to be like China in general terms, but I just disagree with you. I think they know that the US-centric money flow was capricious and they have been long making plans for when it isn't what it was. >with respect to NAFTA, US manufacturing only consisted of 15% US economy in 1994 https://www.stlouisfed.org/en/on-the-economy/2017/april/us-m https://www.stlouisfed.org/en/on-the-economy/2017/april/us-m..., whereas Chinese manufacturing consisted 30% of China's economy today. Now, put those in real numbers and you will see the effect! Also, do you not think 15% of the world's biggest economy taking a fucking as being significant? We had to pivot to service industries after that! I can tell that you have a hard-held opinion on this and I am not fighting with you, I just think that your original post was not as nuanced as reality.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
pphysch 3y ago
Despite all these cherry-picked numbers, China's economy will grow by 4-6% this year vs. USA's 0-2%. https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-growth-gdp-china-economy-519a9c5 https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-growth-gdp-china-economy...
- marianatom 3y ago
  One government sponsored number, vs multiple numbers pointing to China's economic decline, which multinationals check in order to gauge the real health of China's economy. Multinationals know the real numbers, which is why they're all leaving. What other numbers don't lie? 20.4% youth unemployment rate https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/29/record-youth-unemployment-stokes-economic-worries-in-china-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/29/record-youth-unemployment-st.... 22% drop in daily home sales in 2023 vs 2022 https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/chinas-april-property-investment-sales-fall-at-faster-pace-on-subdued-demand https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/chinas-april-prop.... Yuan losing 7% value against dollar https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/investing/china-covid-yuan-usd-weakening-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/investing/china-covid-yuan-us.... and on and on.
  - pphysch 3y ago
    Those numbers are from the IMF and CBO, not CCP.
    - NLPaep 3y ago
      Where? The first link leads to here, and the second link is behind a paywall. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-q1-gdp-grew-45-yy-above-expectations-2023-04-18/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-q1-gdp-grew-45-yy-... >On a quarter-by-quarter basis, GDP grew 2.2% in January-March, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed, compared with expectations for a 2.2% increase and a revised 0.6% rise in the previous quarter.
  - hmm37 3y ago
    You do realize that the Yuan losing 7% against the dollar meant that export numbers looked like it dropped by a similar percentage in May right? The reports are all using USD to show such a huge drop. In reality if the reports were to use RMB, exports only dropped .8% meaning they are exporting roughly as much as before in raw numbers. Right now China isn't pouring money into industry because it frankly never needed it. With the opening, more money is now being pumped into reopening services in China, that's why when you look at the PMI for services it's much higher, because people are taking money out of industry (unless it's high tech oriented) and parking it in services. People aren't necessarily consuming more, but it doesn't mean they aren't using much more services than they previously were, and eating out more, etc. GDP doesn't only look at industrial output. BTW. All the other numbers you cited in the other articles were also provided by the Chinese government.

AnimalMuppet 3y ago

8 million babies for a population of 1.2 billion? Woah. Back of the envelope, that's something like half replacement rate.

marianatom 3y ago
Yeah and that's not the crazy part. There's a 50% drop in marriage rate in 2023 compared to 2022.
- spywaregorilla 3y ago
  Source? I see marriage rates falling by about 50% over the past decade. But this claim seems unlikely, or perhaps just badly skewed by the seasonality of things.
  - guardiangod 3y ago
    He is probably talking about the "520" Marriage Day. May 20 is a popular national marriage day (due to tradition) and many couples choose to get marry on that day in China. This year's 520 marriage rate is ~40% of last year's. https://xueqiu.com/5539280156/251074532 https://xueqiu.com/5539280156/251074532
lotsofpulp 3y ago
I cannot find a source for 8M babies. I see 9.56M births in 2022 for China: https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3207109/china-population-7-takeaways-2022-figures https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/320... https://www.statista.com/statistics/250650/number-of-births-in-china/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/250650/number-of-births-...
guardiangod 3y ago
Not sure where he got his stats from, but 9.56 million sounds about right. https://news.sina.cn/gn/2023-01-17/detail-imyanfvn6707213.d.html https://news.sina.cn/gn/2023-01-17/detail-imyanfvn6707213.d.... (Figure 3) 2017 - 17.23 million 2018 - 15.23 2019 - 14.65 2020 - 12.00 2021 - 10.62 2022 - 9.56 Note that this is official Chinese gov statistics. Their numbers are known to be untrustworthy.
- AnimalMuppet 3y ago
  Falling in half in six years? Again, woah. Any idea what's driving that?
  - Aerbil313 3y ago
    Modernity. The Industrial Revolution and its consequences have been a disaster for the human race…
    - uoaei 3y ago
      With a larger population combined with more of a chance of living past the age of 5, you need fewer births to get the same population growth rate globally. As the world population rapidly urbanizes we will settle into a new normal that will still approach Earth's carrying capacity faster than we can adequately react.
      - Aerbil313 3y ago
        Human population has overshot in 1971[1], what are you talking about? Carrying capacity has long been exceeded, we’re living thanks to the phantom carrying capacity[2]. 1: https://medium.com/@CollapseSurvival/overshoot-why-its-already-too-late-to-save-civilization-e834cb4ec694 https://medium.com/@CollapseSurvival/overshoot-why-its-alrea... 2: https://www.resilience.org/stories/2005-03-06/dependence-phantom-carrying-capacity/ https://www.resilience.org/stories/2005-03-06/dependence-pha...
        3y ago

euroderf 3y ago

By your numbers and those of others, both Eastasia and Eurasia are taking it on the chin. Oceania suffers from sociopolitical rot but the economy is pretty lively.

mhuffman 3y ago

> China is no longer the "world's factory". It will stagnate for 10+ years, similar to Japan's lost decades, but with worser birth rate than Japan today. idk, Japan seems like it thought the party would go on forever, whereas China does seem to have clear eyes with it comes to world politics (eg. long-term investment in the rest of Asia and Africa). > We've never seen a large portion (25%+) of a large modern economy vanish in a span of a few years. Do you recall NAFTA? or the quick rise of China not long after? These are still studied as huge exogenous economic shocks in business schools!

marianatom 3y ago
> China does seem to have clear eyes with it comes to world politics You're hyping up Xi Jing Ping, who is considered an idiot in most elite circles including Putin, too much. One belt and one road is now considered a failure with Italy, the most prominent member, dropping out of it this year. Most of the countries that took on the debt are unable to pay it back, and China has had to forgive a lot of the loans recently. And no one has aligned US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, India, Australia, Nato quite like China in recent years. The most recent focus in G7 was squarely on China. > NAFTA with respect to NAFTA, US manufacturing only consisted of 15% US economy in 1994 https://www.stlouisfed.org/en/on-the-economy/2017/april/us-manufacturing-really-declining https://www.stlouisfed.org/en/on-the-economy/2017/april/us-m..., whereas Chinese manufacturing consisted 30% of China's economy today. Also, the difference is, the laborers in US manufacturing moved to other higher paying jobs, as a result, average income went from 25k to 30k in 2000. Whereas what we're seeing now with Chinese laborers is that they're moving back home to countryside to farm (< $1 a day)
- mhuffman 3y ago
  >You're hyping up Xi Jing Ping, who is considered an idiot in most elite circles including Putin, too much. I don't really care what Putin says but I do think they are thinking more long-term. Only here and in Europe do people think in terms of election cycles. Don't get me wrong, I am not a Xi fanboy, and I definitely don't want to the US to be like China in general terms, but I just disagree with you. I think they know that the US-centric money flow was capricious and they have been long making plans for when it isn't what it was. >with respect to NAFTA, US manufacturing only consisted of 15% US economy in 1994 https://www.stlouisfed.org/en/on-the-economy/2017/april/us-m https://www.stlouisfed.org/en/on-the-economy/2017/april/us-m..., whereas Chinese manufacturing consisted 30% of China's economy today. Now, put those in real numbers and you will see the effect! Also, do you not think 15% of the world's biggest economy taking a fucking as being significant? We had to pivot to service industries after that! I can tell that you have a hard-held opinion on this and I am not fighting with you, I just think that your original post was not as nuanced as reality.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

pphysch 3y ago

Despite all these cherry-picked numbers, China's economy will grow by 4-6% this year vs. USA's 0-2%. https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-growth-gdp-china-economy-519a9c5 https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-growth-gdp-china-economy...

marianatom 3y ago
One government sponsored number, vs multiple numbers pointing to China's economic decline, which multinationals check in order to gauge the real health of China's economy. Multinationals know the real numbers, which is why they're all leaving. What other numbers don't lie? 20.4% youth unemployment rate https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/29/record-youth-unemployment-stokes-economic-worries-in-china-.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/29/record-youth-unemployment-st.... 22% drop in daily home sales in 2023 vs 2022 https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/chinas-april-property-investment-sales-fall-at-faster-pace-on-subdued-demand https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/chinas-april-prop.... Yuan losing 7% value against dollar https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/investing/china-covid-yuan-usd-weakening-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/13/investing/china-covid-yuan-us.... and on and on.
- pphysch 3y ago
  Those numbers are from the IMF and CBO, not CCP.
  - NLPaep 3y ago
    Where? The first link leads to here, and the second link is behind a paywall. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-q1-gdp-grew-45-yy-above-expectations-2023-04-18/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-q1-gdp-grew-45-yy-... >On a quarter-by-quarter basis, GDP grew 2.2% in January-March, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed, compared with expectations for a 2.2% increase and a revised 0.6% rise in the previous quarter.
- hmm37 3y ago
  You do realize that the Yuan losing 7% against the dollar meant that export numbers looked like it dropped by a similar percentage in May right? The reports are all using USD to show such a huge drop. In reality if the reports were to use RMB, exports only dropped .8% meaning they are exporting roughly as much as before in raw numbers. Right now China isn't pouring money into industry because it frankly never needed it. With the opening, more money is now being pumped into reopening services in China, that's why when you look at the PMI for services it's much higher, because people are taking money out of industry (unless it's high tech oriented) and parking it in services. People aren't necessarily consuming more, but it doesn't mean they aren't using much more services than they previously were, and eating out more, etc. GDP doesn't only look at industrial output. BTW. All the other numbers you cited in the other articles were also provided by the Chinese government.