That's not cynical - that's just realistic management. If you are current at headcount X and want to be at headcount Y by the end of the year, you don't let go

That's not cynical - that's just realistic management. If you are current at headcount X and want to be at headcount Y by the end of the year, you don't let go X-Y people: you need to take into account the expected voluntary attrition for the year as well as any critical hiring you may need to do.