3 ms·

I don't think I'm confused. I'm merely extrapolating current trends. Are you hoping it's an s-curve or asserting it is?

• AnimalMuppet 3y ago
  It's always an s-curve eventually. The question is, how far off is the point where it quits being exponential? If it's far enough off, "it's an s-curve eventually" doesn't matter - or at least doesn't matter now.
• pyrale 3y ago
  It's an assertion. With power becoming cheaper and cheaper, incentive to invest in innovation gradually tapers off, and a technology becomes stable and mature. Another aspect within the power industry, as renewable production becomes less and less of a bottleneck and other problems such as grid management and storage become the key challenge to being able to enjoy stable power, investment will be redirected to these aspects of providing electricity. In Europe, we see countries reaching half their production in renewables, and already this creates challenges on the current electricity market structure. 10 years from now, at the current pace, pioneering countries will be past the point where production is the problem they need to solve. Countries coming after them will still drive some innovation, sure. We may also see faster-than-expected electrification. So in this horizon, hockeystick predictions might still hold. But the combination of these mechanism basically defeats the prospect of power becoming "too cheap to meter", or dirt-cheap.