6 ms·

I agree with you, but not in the longer term. Robots + AI = 80 person Standard Oil.

by 3pt14159 15y ago

mattadams 15y ago
Yeah, that is probably never going to happen or if it does it's so far out that it's not worth speculating on.
- 3pt14159 15y ago
  Think about the amount of data the 70 people at Dropbox move. A couple hundred years ago that would have taken every single literate person.
- jey 15y ago
  How do you justify that very strong assertion? What's your definition of "far out"? The past 100 years are a great example of how a lot of change can happen in a short amount of time.
- Qworg 15y ago
  There already are unmanned oil platforms. As communications and remote systems get better, I expect to see even more automation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normally_unmanned_installation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normally_unmanned_installation http://www.shell.com/home/content/innovation/meeting_demand/monotower/ http://www.shell.com/home/content/innovation/meeting_demand/...
  - mattadams 15y ago
    I'm aware that there are unmanned stations -- not only oil platforms but regular leases. I live in oil & natural gas country (Northern Alberta). What you don't see are the thousands and thousands of guys running around keeping it all ticking. There are some things that you can automate -- but a lot of things in the oil & gas industry cannot be automated. Specifically, the leg work required to get things started & keep them maintained. Automating those sorts of things requires a pretty advanced AI and I don't see that coming around the corner anytime soon.
    - rdl 15y ago
      You can make things simpler for dumber AIs (or dumber workers) by designing field-replaceable-units with that in mind. It is going to cost more/be less efficient, so as long as a human costs $300k/yr or less, no need, but when that isn't the case, you see "forklift upgrades", etc.
bdunbar 15y ago
I don't hold out a lot of hope for actual AI. AI has been promised 'real soon' as long as I've been doing computer stuff, haven't seen it yet. Automation can get us close. Already has, but this just moves the labor out of the field and into a cube. But (I think others have pointed out downthread by now) capital intensive projects are always going to need someone to go out and kick the tires, work a nut loose, apply some ingenuity. If you don't have those guys hanging around to kick the tires and whack a lug nut things will stop until you send a guy out to do that. The probes we have on Mars .. you can wait a few months for the guys at mission control to work out a problem. You can't do that with an oil well.

I agree with you, but not in the longer term. Robots + AI = 80 person Standard Oil.

mattadams 15y ago

Yeah, that is probably never going to happen or if it does it's so far out that it's not worth speculating on.

3pt14159 15y ago
Think about the amount of data the 70 people at Dropbox move. A couple hundred years ago that would have taken every single literate person.
jey 15y ago
How do you justify that very strong assertion? What's your definition of "far out"? The past 100 years are a great example of how a lot of change can happen in a short amount of time.
Qworg 15y ago
There already are unmanned oil platforms. As communications and remote systems get better, I expect to see even more automation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normally_unmanned_installation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normally_unmanned_installation http://www.shell.com/home/content/innovation/meeting_demand/monotower/ http://www.shell.com/home/content/innovation/meeting_demand/...
- mattadams 15y ago
  I'm aware that there are unmanned stations -- not only oil platforms but regular leases. I live in oil & natural gas country (Northern Alberta). What you don't see are the thousands and thousands of guys running around keeping it all ticking. There are some things that you can automate -- but a lot of things in the oil & gas industry cannot be automated. Specifically, the leg work required to get things started & keep them maintained. Automating those sorts of things requires a pretty advanced AI and I don't see that coming around the corner anytime soon.
  - rdl 15y ago
    You can make things simpler for dumber AIs (or dumber workers) by designing field-replaceable-units with that in mind. It is going to cost more/be less efficient, so as long as a human costs $300k/yr or less, no need, but when that isn't the case, you see "forklift upgrades", etc.

bdunbar 15y ago

I don't hold out a lot of hope for actual AI. AI has been promised 'real soon' as long as I've been doing computer stuff, haven't seen it yet. Automation can get us close. Already has, but this just moves the labor out of the field and into a cube. But (I think others have pointed out downthread by now) capital intensive projects are always going to need someone to go out and kick the tires, work a nut loose, apply some ingenuity. If you don't have those guys hanging around to kick the tires and whack a lug nut things will stop until you send a guy out to do that. The probes we have on Mars .. you can wait a few months for the guys at mission control to work out a problem. You can't do that with an oil well.