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> But the fanfare surrounding the phasing-out of coal and oil needs to be tempered with some realism… grid instability… investment in fossil fuel supply will ri

> But the fanfare surrounding the phasing-out of coal and oil needs to be tempered with some realism… grid instability… investment in fossil fuel supply will rise by more than six percent… The article itself craps on solar.

ftth_finland 3y ago
How is this crapping on solar?
- ZeroGravitas 3y ago
  There's a paragraph about 2/3rds down that rolls out all the usual BS, and links to an article, by the same author, suggesting we need to slow down renewable rollout as it is "destabilising the grid".
  - not_a_shill 3y ago
    Can you please respond to this? I just want to make sure misinformation isn't being spread. >Just curious because this question is always posed when HN disagrees with something. Are the recent climate events actually statistically significant?
    - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
      Can you clarify what you are asking? If you mean: can we prove that man-made climate change is a factor in making some recent weather events (hurricanes, floods, wildfires, droughts etc.) worse, then yes: https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affect...
      - not_a_shill 3y ago
        The context is I was responding to this post you made >(2021) And I'm not sure if it's posted by someone who still agrees with that conclusion or someone who think things have moved fast enough in the last couple of years to make it seem silly in retrospect. So I guess what I really want to know is: 1) what changed within the last two years that would cause an accelerating amount of climate change 2) how confident are we in that answer 3) does that answer provide any predictive power going forward. Ie, should we expect the rate of change to keep increasing or hold steady? I don't need a link to any studies, I'll take your word for it. Edit: thanks for the response
        ZeroGravitas 3y ago
        1) we continue to emit more GHGs than we ever have before every single year. The "good" news in 2023 was that our yearly output didn't rise as much as we feared it would, but it still rose. 2) We're very confident in that answer 3) We hope that this year, we might actually stop increasing the amount of GHG emitted, potentially even outputting slightly less than the year before. If the rollout of renewables, EVs, carbon fees etc. continues as it is then we'll hopefully see this rate fall over time, like the glide paths proposed for net zero 2050. But at the moment it seems like that will lock in centuries of heating, if we don't start global scale GHG removal at some point, on top of complete replacement of fossil fuels, which is a necassary but not sufficient step.

ftth_finland 3y ago

How is this crapping on solar?

ZeroGravitas 3y ago
There's a paragraph about 2/3rds down that rolls out all the usual BS, and links to an article, by the same author, suggesting we need to slow down renewable rollout as it is "destabilising the grid".
- not_a_shill 3y ago
  Can you please respond to this? I just want to make sure misinformation isn't being spread. >Just curious because this question is always posed when HN disagrees with something. Are the recent climate events actually statistically significant?
  - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
    Can you clarify what you are asking? If you mean: can we prove that man-made climate change is a factor in making some recent weather events (hurricanes, floods, wildfires, droughts etc.) worse, then yes: https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affect...
    - not_a_shill 3y ago
      The context is I was responding to this post you made >(2021) And I'm not sure if it's posted by someone who still agrees with that conclusion or someone who think things have moved fast enough in the last couple of years to make it seem silly in retrospect. So I guess what I really want to know is: 1) what changed within the last two years that would cause an accelerating amount of climate change 2) how confident are we in that answer 3) does that answer provide any predictive power going forward. Ie, should we expect the rate of change to keep increasing or hold steady? I don't need a link to any studies, I'll take your word for it. Edit: thanks for the response
      - ZeroGravitas 3y ago
        1) we continue to emit more GHGs than we ever have before every single year. The "good" news in 2023 was that our yearly output didn't rise as much as we feared it would, but it still rose. 2) We're very confident in that answer 3) We hope that this year, we might actually stop increasing the amount of GHG emitted, potentially even outputting slightly less than the year before. If the rollout of renewables, EVs, carbon fees etc. continues as it is then we'll hopefully see this rate fall over time, like the glide paths proposed for net zero 2050. But at the moment it seems like that will lock in centuries of heating, if we don't start global scale GHG removal at some point, on top of complete replacement of fossil fuels, which is a necassary but not sufficient step.