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> For myself, LIDAR is actually the technology looking like it isn't panning out. It's not getting cheaper or more reliable. This is just plain wrong. Lidar is

by ra7 3y ago

> For myself, LIDAR is actually the technology looking like it isn't panning out. It's not getting cheaper or more reliable. This is just plain wrong. Lidar is getting cheaper by the year. They are now so cheap you’re starting see them in consumer vehicles from Volvo, Mercedes, Cadillac, Nio, XPeng, BYD, etc. Self driving companies have also slashed lidar costs drastically. Waymo, for example, had a 90% cost reduction for their 5th gen Lidar. This is the opposite of a technology “not panning out”. It’s looking like Tesla is the outlier here because they made a bad bet. > LIDAR autonomy isn't getting better nearly as fast as vision solutions are iterating. Lidar autonomy is the only one proven to work without a driver, so this is a very strange take. We’re seeing robotaxi companies starting to expand driverless operations to big cities. Vision solutions are the only ones that still do not have a single driverless mile. It seems like all your arguments fit into what you’re accusing others of — that you’re the one using lidar as a proxy for “not Tesla” and getting basic facts wrong.

ajross 3y ago
> They are now so cheap you’re starting see them in consumer vehicles from Volvo, Mercedes, Cadillac, Nio, XPeng, BYD, etc. I'm googling, and not finding a reference here. As far as I can tell not one of these manufacturers (or anyone else) is shipping a consumer vehicle with a LIDAR sensor. You're just citing press releases about plans, I guess? Look, the argument goes like this: 1. LIDAR gives somewhat better depth info, and slightly inferior vision. 2. Depth info from camera devices is proven sufficient. Again, Teslas don't hit stuff due to sensor failures, period (lots of nitpicking in this thread over that framing, here I'm being a bit more precise). 3. All the remaining hard problems are about recognition and decisionmaking, all of which gets sourced from vision data, not a point cloud. The conclusion being that LIDAR isn't worth it. It's not giving significant advantages. If you were designing an autonomy system from scratch today, you wouldn't bet it on LIDAR (especially as there's no proven off the shelf device!).
- ra7 3y ago
  > I'm googling, and not finding a reference here. As far as I can tell not one of these manufacturers (or anyone else) is shipping a consumer vehicle with a LIDAR sensor. You're just citing press releases about plans, I guess? XPeng P5, XPeng G9, Nio ET7 are all shipping with lidar. You'll also see them in many other models starting this year: Mercedes S-class/EQS w/ Drive Pilot, Volvo EX90, Volvo XC90, Audi A6L/A7L/A8L/Q8, Polestar 3, etc. The list is growing [1]. > 2. Depth info from camera devices is proven sufficient. Again, Teslas don't hit stuff due to sensor failures, period (lots of nitpicking in this thread over that framing, here I'm being a bit more precise). Teslas absolutely hit stuff. Plenty of examples in Reddit and YouTube about FSD hitting curbs, bollards and other things. We also don't know any accident numbers about Tesla because they actively hide it. They skirt CA DMV rules by not reporting it and have a very questionable methodology for what they consider an accident (they don't count it if airbags don't deploy). > 3. All the remaining hard problems are about recognition and decisionmaking, all of which gets sourced from vision data, not a point cloud. This is wrong, too. Object detection and decision making uses fused input from cameras, lidar and radar. They don't just use cameras. There's plenty of literature to look up on sensor fusion and how they're being used throughout the perception/behavior prediction stack. > The conclusion being that LIDAR isn't worth it. It's not giving significant advantages. Only if you lack the ability to do sensor fusion or if you have already falsely promised customers their cars are capable of fully autonomous driving and painted yourself into a corner. Only one company stands out here. [1] https://cnevpost.com/2023/04/21/shanghai-auto-show-nearly-40-models-with-lidars/ https://cnevpost.com/2023/04/21/shanghai-auto-show-nearly-40...
- AlotOfReading 3y ago
  You didn't look very hard. The Mercedes 2022+ EQS, S class, Volvo XC90... 1. It's not really a contest. Lidar is measurably better. 2. Error bars in perception tend to accumulate throughout the stack and manifest as serious errors like bad velocity estimates for stationary or slow moving vehicles. 3. LIDAR helps recognition too. Planning and pathing are both helped by LIDAR. Honestly, there aren't many other sensors on an AV with the same bang-for-the-buck as LIDAR. It's easily up there with cameras for "why would you even consider not having it?" for a modern driverless vehicle, which is why everyone operating driverless vehicles uses them (Waymo, Cruise, Mobileye, Baidu, etc).

by ra7 3y ago

ajross 3y ago

> They are now so cheap you’re starting see them in consumer vehicles from Volvo, Mercedes, Cadillac, Nio, XPeng, BYD, etc. I'm googling, and not finding a reference here. As far as I can tell not one of these manufacturers (or anyone else) is shipping a consumer vehicle with a LIDAR sensor. You're just citing press releases about plans, I guess? Look, the argument goes like this: 1. LIDAR gives somewhat better depth info, and slightly inferior vision. 2. Depth info from camera devices is proven sufficient. Again, Teslas don't hit stuff due to sensor failures, period (lots of nitpicking in this thread over that framing, here I'm being a bit more precise). 3. All the remaining hard problems are about recognition and decisionmaking, all of which gets sourced from vision data, not a point cloud. The conclusion being that LIDAR isn't worth it. It's not giving significant advantages. If you were designing an autonomy system from scratch today, you wouldn't bet it on LIDAR (especially as there's no proven off the shelf device!).

ra7 3y ago
> I'm googling, and not finding a reference here. As far as I can tell not one of these manufacturers (or anyone else) is shipping a consumer vehicle with a LIDAR sensor. You're just citing press releases about plans, I guess? XPeng P5, XPeng G9, Nio ET7 are all shipping with lidar. You'll also see them in many other models starting this year: Mercedes S-class/EQS w/ Drive Pilot, Volvo EX90, Volvo XC90, Audi A6L/A7L/A8L/Q8, Polestar 3, etc. The list is growing [1]. > 2. Depth info from camera devices is proven sufficient. Again, Teslas don't hit stuff due to sensor failures, period (lots of nitpicking in this thread over that framing, here I'm being a bit more precise). Teslas absolutely hit stuff. Plenty of examples in Reddit and YouTube about FSD hitting curbs, bollards and other things. We also don't know any accident numbers about Tesla because they actively hide it. They skirt CA DMV rules by not reporting it and have a very questionable methodology for what they consider an accident (they don't count it if airbags don't deploy). > 3. All the remaining hard problems are about recognition and decisionmaking, all of which gets sourced from vision data, not a point cloud. This is wrong, too. Object detection and decision making uses fused input from cameras, lidar and radar. They don't just use cameras. There's plenty of literature to look up on sensor fusion and how they're being used throughout the perception/behavior prediction stack. > The conclusion being that LIDAR isn't worth it. It's not giving significant advantages. Only if you lack the ability to do sensor fusion or if you have already falsely promised customers their cars are capable of fully autonomous driving and painted yourself into a corner. Only one company stands out here. [1] https://cnevpost.com/2023/04/21/shanghai-auto-show-nearly-40-models-with-lidars/ https://cnevpost.com/2023/04/21/shanghai-auto-show-nearly-40...
AlotOfReading 3y ago
You didn't look very hard. The Mercedes 2022+ EQS, S class, Volvo XC90... 1. It's not really a contest. Lidar is measurably better. 2. Error bars in perception tend to accumulate throughout the stack and manifest as serious errors like bad velocity estimates for stationary or slow moving vehicles. 3. LIDAR helps recognition too. Planning and pathing are both helped by LIDAR. Honestly, there aren't many other sensors on an AV with the same bang-for-the-buck as LIDAR. It's easily up there with cameras for "why would you even consider not having it?" for a modern driverless vehicle, which is why everyone operating driverless vehicles uses them (Waymo, Cruise, Mobileye, Baidu, etc).