Okay, you're making a good enough case that the phone was a more proven segment in 2007 than VR is in 2023. I could nitpick some details (most notably that "[t]

Okay, you're making a good enough case that the phone was a more proven segment in 2007 than VR is in 2023. I could nitpick some details (most notably that "[t]here were popular, successful camera phones and smart phones even then" would probably have been on a scale similar to what Apple is hoping to accomplish with the Vision launch) but that NBC News article is a great citation. My interest in this vein of discussion is to make sure people realize just how game-changing the iPhone was; so much of what it accomplished looks obvious and inevitable in hindsight but really was new and magical in that keynote. Anyways, I think that if the Vision succeeds it'll take a path more like the Watch: - Expectations were sky high. People talked about how the iPhone cannibalized the iPod and were speculating how a watch might do the same, while noting that the iPhone was one of the most successful products of all time (in terms of revenue) and it was going to be a tough act to follow, particularly as the first big Tim Cook launch. - There wasn't a super obvious smartwatch market either. Everyone knew that health and fitness was a reason to get a Fitbit or Garmin but they were either specialized for limited use or cheap-looking. Apple shipped, figured out how people were using it, and iterated. The biggest difference is that their first-gen price was pretty reasonable, so it was easier to buy one impulsively. That won't be the case with Vision.