4 ms·

Good thing it doesn’t take 20 years to build a house or apartment building.

by TX81Z 3y ago

JimtheCoder 3y ago
Have you ever tried to build a house or apartment building in Canada?
xienze 3y ago
That's... not the key point to take away there. The point is, if the rate of new citizens (who need new housing, i.e. aren't living with a family member who already has existing housing) is greater than your rate of speed with which you can throw up new housing, you're gonna be in trouble. This is Canada right now. Their population is increasing at like 1-2% per year due to immigration. That's insane. People forget that construction projects aren't like AWS, you can't just spin them up and down in and instant and "poof", 500K houses, ready in a week. There's a significant amount of spin up time for this sort of stuff, nevermind the money required.
- KptMarchewa 3y ago
  Have you looked at how, for example US population has grown in the late 19th century? The rates have been extraordinarily greater than today.
  - xienze 3y ago
    The US would also take breaks where they greatly reduced immigration levels in order to let things "settle" a bit, instead of running it full throttle with no end in sight. AND of course, birth rates were significantly higher, which is what drove a lot of growth. Which can be accommodated much easier from a housing stock perspective, as mentioned earlier. The situation today isn't exactly the same.
    - KptMarchewa 3y ago
      Only "break" was a recent decade, with smallest increase of population in time. Up till 1860s US was growing at over 30% every decade, up till 1910 20%, and up till 2000 over 10%, with only exception being 1940s... due to known reasons. "Foreign born" percent of population was higher in the 1800s as well.
- TX81Z 3y ago
  There are whole towns in the United States that were built in a year during the baby boom. It is possible whether or not the government is willing to make it happen is a completely different issue.
  - xienze 3y ago
    > There are whole towns in the United States that were built in a year during the baby boom. It is possible whether or not the government is willing to make it happen is a completely different issue. Ultimately everything is a matter of willingness, but the world has also changed. More regulations, more bureaucracy, more money involved, more planning. It's the reason why we could definitely build the Hoover Dam again today, but definitely not in five years or for as little as we originally spent.
    - TX81Z 3y ago
      Precisely my point, it’s not an issue of physics, it’s politics.
boplicity 3y ago
Housing supply is actually a function of transportation. There's no point in adding housing, if people struggle to get where they need to go. So, Toronto is wisely adding new transit lines. For example, the new Eglinton LRT. Unfortunately, it is already years overdue, with no definitive plan to finish it. They started construction in 2015. When will it finish? Who knows. Maybe a decade after starting? This, of course, ties into the extremely difficult climate change situation. Transportation is a key emissions source, and without the ability to construct new subway lines, the transition away from carbon emissions gets that much more difficult Another key problem: They keep building towers in Toronto, but not adding services. For example, the Yonge/Eglinton area has exploded in growth. Every new building has a sign that says "there's no plan to accommodate elementary students here." No new parks either. Most of the development is very anti-family, with tiny units and as many 1 bedrooms/studios as possible. Plus, these towers are usually all glass, which is a terrible from an emissions perspective. Another example: They tried to start building "affordable" housing, funded by the government years ago. They still haven't broken ground. Anywhere. [1] Bad planning, short term thinking, etc. It all adds up to a huge mess, and very little progress on the real problems that should have long been solved. [1] https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2023/06/05/housing-eventually-why-torontos-rapid-homebuilding-program-has-yet-to-build-a-single-home.html https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2023/06/05/housing-eventual...

Good thing it doesn’t take 20 years to build a house or apartment building.

by TX81Z 3y ago

Good thing it doesn’t take 20 years to build a house or apartment building.

JimtheCoder 3y ago

Have you ever tried to build a house or apartment building in Canada?

xienze 3y ago

That's... not the key point to take away there. The point is, if the rate of new citizens (who need new housing, i.e. aren't living with a family member who already has existing housing) is greater than your rate of speed with which you can throw up new housing, you're gonna be in trouble. This is Canada right now. Their population is increasing at like 1-2% per year due to immigration. That's insane. People forget that construction projects aren't like AWS, you can't just spin them up and down in and instant and "poof", 500K houses, ready in a week. There's a significant amount of spin up time for this sort of stuff, nevermind the money required.

KptMarchewa 3y ago
Have you looked at how, for example US population has grown in the late 19th century? The rates have been extraordinarily greater than today.
- xienze 3y ago
  The US would also take breaks where they greatly reduced immigration levels in order to let things "settle" a bit, instead of running it full throttle with no end in sight. AND of course, birth rates were significantly higher, which is what drove a lot of growth. Which can be accommodated much easier from a housing stock perspective, as mentioned earlier. The situation today isn't exactly the same.
  - KptMarchewa 3y ago
    Only "break" was a recent decade, with smallest increase of population in time. Up till 1860s US was growing at over 30% every decade, up till 1910 20%, and up till 2000 over 10%, with only exception being 1940s... due to known reasons. "Foreign born" percent of population was higher in the 1800s as well.
TX81Z 3y ago
There are whole towns in the United States that were built in a year during the baby boom. It is possible whether or not the government is willing to make it happen is a completely different issue.
- xienze 3y ago
  > There are whole towns in the United States that were built in a year during the baby boom. It is possible whether or not the government is willing to make it happen is a completely different issue. Ultimately everything is a matter of willingness, but the world has also changed. More regulations, more bureaucracy, more money involved, more planning. It's the reason why we could definitely build the Hoover Dam again today, but definitely not in five years or for as little as we originally spent.
  - TX81Z 3y ago
    Precisely my point, it’s not an issue of physics, it’s politics.

boplicity 3y ago

Housing supply is actually a function of transportation. There's no point in adding housing, if people struggle to get where they need to go. So, Toronto is wisely adding new transit lines. For example, the new Eglinton LRT. Unfortunately, it is already years overdue, with no definitive plan to finish it. They started construction in 2015. When will it finish? Who knows. Maybe a decade after starting? This, of course, ties into the extremely difficult climate change situation. Transportation is a key emissions source, and without the ability to construct new subway lines, the transition away from carbon emissions gets that much more difficult Another key problem: They keep building towers in Toronto, but not adding services. For example, the Yonge/Eglinton area has exploded in growth. Every new building has a sign that says "there's no plan to accommodate elementary students here." No new parks either. Most of the development is very anti-family, with tiny units and as many 1 bedrooms/studios as possible. Plus, these towers are usually all glass, which is a terrible from an emissions perspective. Another example: They tried to start building "affordable" housing, funded by the government years ago. They still haven't broken ground. Anywhere. [1] Bad planning, short term thinking, etc. It all adds up to a huge mess, and very little progress on the real problems that should have long been solved. [1] https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2023/06/05/housing-eventually-why-torontos-rapid-homebuilding-program-has-yet-to-build-a-single-home.html https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2023/06/05/housing-eventual...