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Autonomous flying seems like a much easier and more cost effective problem to solve, given there are orders of magnitude fewer contexts and obstacles. The smar

Autonomous flying seems like a much easier and more cost effective problem to solve, given there are orders of magnitude fewer contexts and obstacles. The smarter problem would be changing the controls/UX for cars to be more like a hoverboard or balance/attention and gesture based than twisting a wheel around, abstracting that to remote telemetry, and then work on using ML to replacing that remote driver. Autonomous vehicle companies have picked the unsolvable moonshot problem instead of improving the controls UX of driving to where it provides greater leverage to human ability. Make the driving experience more like a motorcycle, which is an extension of your body, instead of a mediated service where driving is reduced to a transaction. Self driving cars is the perfect example of sprawling corporate groupthink, where someone has a poorly formed idea and everyone aligns around managing a response to it instead of asking whether it's the right problem to solve. For example, I think the Apple version of a car wouldn't be self driving, it would be one that feels like it's controlled by thought. Maybe that's Musk's Neuralink play, and self driving was a distraction to set all auto industry competitors on a goose chase. If he's not that strategic, it could at least provide an out, where a gesture controlled Tesla would outperform.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
throw0101c 3y ago
> Autonomous flying seems like a much easier and more cost effective problem to solve, given there are orders of magnitude fewer contexts and obstacles. Not just flying, but (emergency) autolanding is now available: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoland#Emergency_autoland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoland#Emergency_autoland * https://skiesmag.com/features/virtual-co-pilot-garmin-autoland/ https://skiesmag.com/features/virtual-co-pilot-garmin-autola...
atlasunshrugged 3y ago
This is a super interesting comment but I want to make sure I really understand -- can you expand on how to enhance the driving experience (especially in "self-driving" vehicles)? Or is your point that self-driving vehicles is the wrong solution to a problem
pizzalife 3y ago
> The smarter problem would be changing the controls/UX for cars to be more like a hoverboard or balance/attention and gesture based than twisting a wheel around, abstracting that to remote telemetry, and then work on using ML to replacing that remote driver. I'm sorry, what? The difficulty of self-driving cars is not about controlling the actual vehicle in space, it's about the other dynamic agents involved and getting an accurate view of the physical world. The last line of your comment is just pure nonsense. Tesla's failed self-driving was a 5d chess move by Musk? Come on.
SoftTalker 3y ago
It's almost the old Boeing vs. Airbus differences in design philosophy. With a steering wheel, worst case if the power assist fails there is still a mechanical link that will allow you to control the car. If you changed that to an Airbus-like sidestick or some other kind of fully "by wire" control, then if the power assist fails you are at the mercy of physics. That would probably demand redundant systems or big increases in reliability, with attendant costs. Sometimes simple is better.
hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
> Autonomous vehicle companies have picked the unsolvable moonshot problem instead of improving the controls UX of driving to where it provides greater leverage to human ability. Make the driving experience more like a motorcycle, which is an extension of your body, instead of a mediated service where driving is reduced to a transaction. Who the hell would want this? My guess is that 99% of the people that would want this already do drive motorcycles, exactly for that reason. But for the vast majority of the rest of this, I don't want driving to "provide greater leverage to human ability". I just want it to get me from point A to point B, ideally without me thinking about it so I can do other things.
krisoft 3y ago
> The smarter problem would be changing the controls/UX for cars to be more like a hoverboard or balance/attention and gesture based than twisting a wheel around, abstracting that to remote telemetry, and then work on using ML to replacing that remote driver. Go ahead and do it then. Show them how it is done. :) > Self driving cars is the perfect example of sprawling corporate groupthink, where someone has a poorly formed idea and everyone aligns around managing a response to it instead of asking whether it's the right problem to solve. Or maybe people thought about the problem for more than hot second and come to a different conclusion than you do. Your comment makes it clear that you are thinking about the joy of driving. You are talking about motorbikes, and UX, and being one with the car. I'm happy for you for that, and I hope you will find a lot of joy doing that. That on the other hand is not the problem self-driving cars are out to change. Every single thing in a modern world have traveled a ton. Transportation of raw materials, transportation of parts, transportation of the finished product. Then on top of that people can't make up their mind if they want to be in A or in B and seems to change location all the time. This is economically significant. Driving for joy, is a cool hobby, but is a tiny sliver of the whole economy. People and companies working on self driving cars believe that the time has come when we have enough compute that we can automate the act of driving and be at least as safe as vehicle driven by a human. If they are right, and these autonomous systems can be cheaper than human drivers then those who can make such machines can capture a portion of all the wages of every activity served by a commercial driver today. > mediated service where driving is reduced to a transaction. Do you think CEO of Walmart cares about the user experience of driving when they hire a small army to drive supply trucks to supply their stores? It is already reduced to a transaction. Uber is extremely successful. Do you think people care about a car becoming an extension of their body when they hail one? Currently people who drive because they enjoy it, and people who drive because they have to are all jumbled into one mass. If we have commercially viable self driving systems you will see who is driving for the joy of it, and who is driving to get stuff or themselves from A to B. I suspect we will see that it will become just an other hobby. Like going skiing or horse riding. Many will enjoy it, there will be probably a whole cottage industry catering to those who would like to "become one with the machine" and etc.
- motohagiography 3y ago
dsr_ 3y ago
"Autonomous flying seems like a much easier and more cost effective problem to solve, given there are orders of magnitude fewer contexts and obstacles." That's not true: what there is, is 3.2 trillion vehicle-miles driven annually (in the US) vs 12.5 billion aircraft-miles flown -- a factor of 400 difference. Imagine the reduction of accident rates if, at any moment, there were 1/400 of the vehicles on the road, and every vehicle trip started with a checklist inspection by a pilot who had passed a physical exam in the last year?
- vkou 3y ago
  > and every vehicle trip started with a checklist inspection by a pilot who had passed a physical exam in the last year? Not to mention a slew of other requirements like 'Don't operate the vehicle with insufficient sleep', 'Don't operate the vehicle if you had even a drop of alcohol in the last 8/12 hours', etc..
contingencies 3y ago
I generally agree with your first paragraph, though flying can be very complex with things like falling tree limbs, gusty wind, undocumented aerial lines, bird strikes and hail - but not the second. Remote driver is a fundamentally broken paradigm owing to cost, latency and issues of network reliability.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

throw0101c 3y ago

> Autonomous flying seems like a much easier and more cost effective problem to solve, given there are orders of magnitude fewer contexts and obstacles. Not just flying, but (emergency) autolanding is now available: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoland#Emergency_autoland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoland#Emergency_autoland * https://skiesmag.com/features/virtual-co-pilot-garmin-autoland/ https://skiesmag.com/features/virtual-co-pilot-garmin-autola...

atlasunshrugged 3y ago

This is a super interesting comment but I want to make sure I really understand -- can you expand on how to enhance the driving experience (especially in "self-driving" vehicles)? Or is your point that self-driving vehicles is the wrong solution to a problem

pizzalife 3y ago

SoftTalker 3y ago

It's almost the old Boeing vs. Airbus differences in design philosophy. With a steering wheel, worst case if the power assist fails there is still a mechanical link that will allow you to control the car. If you changed that to an Airbus-like sidestick or some other kind of fully "by wire" control, then if the power assist fails you are at the mercy of physics. That would probably demand redundant systems or big increases in reliability, with attendant costs. Sometimes simple is better.

hn_throwaway_99 3y ago

> Autonomous vehicle companies have picked the unsolvable moonshot problem instead of improving the controls UX of driving to where it provides greater leverage to human ability. Make the driving experience more like a motorcycle, which is an extension of your body, instead of a mediated service where driving is reduced to a transaction. Who the hell would want this? My guess is that 99% of the people that would want this already do drive motorcycles, exactly for that reason. But for the vast majority of the rest of this, I don't want driving to "provide greater leverage to human ability". I just want it to get me from point A to point B, ideally without me thinking about it so I can do other things.

krisoft 3y ago

> The smarter problem would be changing the controls/UX for cars to be more like a hoverboard or balance/attention and gesture based than twisting a wheel around, abstracting that to remote telemetry, and then work on using ML to replacing that remote driver. Go ahead and do it then. Show them how it is done. :) > Self driving cars is the perfect example of sprawling corporate groupthink, where someone has a poorly formed idea and everyone aligns around managing a response to it instead of asking whether it's the right problem to solve. Or maybe people thought about the problem for more than hot second and come to a different conclusion than you do. Your comment makes it clear that you are thinking about the joy of driving. You are talking about motorbikes, and UX, and being one with the car. I'm happy for you for that, and I hope you will find a lot of joy doing that. That on the other hand is not the problem self-driving cars are out to change. Every single thing in a modern world have traveled a ton. Transportation of raw materials, transportation of parts, transportation of the finished product. Then on top of that people can't make up their mind if they want to be in A or in B and seems to change location all the time. This is economically significant. Driving for joy, is a cool hobby, but is a tiny sliver of the whole economy. People and companies working on self driving cars believe that the time has come when we have enough compute that we can automate the act of driving and be at least as safe as vehicle driven by a human. If they are right, and these autonomous systems can be cheaper than human drivers then those who can make such machines can capture a portion of all the wages of every activity served by a commercial driver today. > mediated service where driving is reduced to a transaction. Do you think CEO of Walmart cares about the user experience of driving when they hire a small army to drive supply trucks to supply their stores? It is already reduced to a transaction. Uber is extremely successful. Do you think people care about a car becoming an extension of their body when they hail one? Currently people who drive because they enjoy it, and people who drive because they have to are all jumbled into one mass. If we have commercially viable self driving systems you will see who is driving for the joy of it, and who is driving to get stuff or themselves from A to B. I suspect we will see that it will become just an other hobby. Like going skiing or horse riding. Many will enjoy it, there will be probably a whole cottage industry catering to those who would like to "become one with the machine" and etc.

motohagiography 3y ago

dsr_ 3y ago

"Autonomous flying seems like a much easier and more cost effective problem to solve, given there are orders of magnitude fewer contexts and obstacles." That's not true: what there is, is 3.2 trillion vehicle-miles driven annually (in the US) vs 12.5 billion aircraft-miles flown -- a factor of 400 difference. Imagine the reduction of accident rates if, at any moment, there were 1/400 of the vehicles on the road, and every vehicle trip started with a checklist inspection by a pilot who had passed a physical exam in the last year?

vkou 3y ago
> and every vehicle trip started with a checklist inspection by a pilot who had passed a physical exam in the last year? Not to mention a slew of other requirements like 'Don't operate the vehicle with insufficient sleep', 'Don't operate the vehicle if you had even a drop of alcohol in the last 8/12 hours', etc..

contingencies 3y ago

I generally agree with your first paragraph, though flying can be very complex with things like falling tree limbs, gusty wind, undocumented aerial lines, bird strikes and hail - but not the second. Remote driver is a fundamentally broken paradigm owing to cost, latency and issues of network reliability.