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Steve Ballmer laughing at the iPhone as "the world's most expensive phone" type of moment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U https://www.youtube.com/w

by ozten 3y ago

Steve Ballmer laughing at the iPhone as "the world's most expensive phone" type of moment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U

scj 3y ago
I keep thinking about the Newton as a distant ancestor of the iPhone. The germ of the idea was there, but the use cases and tech (specifically networking) weren't even close. How close to prime time is AR? It's hard to judge that without hands on experience. Close or not, unlike the mid-90s, Apple can likely afford to burn money for a while on a big gamble. Trying to open up a new product category that plays to Apple's strengths is probably the correct strategy, so long as there isn't a better viable product. I doubt this will storm the world the same way the iPhone did, so it'll likely be a while before it can be judged as a success or failure.
- ozten 3y ago
  I don't think MixedReality will ever go mainstream, but I think it will have a long tail of niches that it is extremely successful in (Training, 3D Design, Gaming, exercise, etc). For general productivity, I feel that the laptop and external monitor is the sweet spot for the peak of computing. All other optimizations have given diminishing returns. For consumption, the mobile phone is the sweet spot. I put up with a lot of jank and discomfort with my VR headset, because the feeling of Presence is so transformative in gaming, exercise, and entertainment for me. I don't think the majority of people will choose that trade-off on a regular basis, especially in social environments.
chrisco255 3y ago
This is a pretty lazy analogy. Mobile phones were already carried by a large majority of adults when the iPhone came out. The iPhone didn't prove that everyone needed a cell phone, or even that smart phones / camera phones were a valid market (remember Blackberry? Palm Treo? Windows Mobile? Sidekick?) it just made a much better phone and mobile OS than anyone else had up to that point. And it introduced a number of killer features that were immediately apparent: -GPS for navigation (almost immediately made Tom Toms in cars obsolete) with Google Maps -Pinch to zoom for the pre-responsive mobile web, with full HTML websites on device -Glass touch haptics with gestures: pinch, double tap, swipe up/down/right/left, etc -Unlimited data back when it was unheard of -Unlimited text messaging back when it was rare -Solid camera experience with both front and back facing camera -Complete iPod replacement with built-in iTunes, a killer app at the time with no peer -Visual voicemail -A usable touch screen keyboard, with intuitive multi-touch controls -HTML email -YouTube app built-in -Accelerometer for orientation-based controls -Proximity and ambient light sensors -Apps, apps, apps. Although App Store wasn't immediately ready for 1st gen iPhone, it was apparent that apps were coming and that they would be amazing, with plenty of built-in 1st and 3rd party apps at launch. Every other mobile phone that implemented apps up to that point did so with a ton of red tape and licensing fees When the iPhone was announced by Jobs in 2007, it was 5 years ahead of any other phone on the market. The Vision Pro, on the other hand, pitches itself as a $3500 monitor replacement, I guess? It doesn't even have one killer app. You could feel the hype and excitement for the original iPhone on day one. Maybe Vision Pro will evolve into something killer in the 2nd or 3rd generation offering. But as it stands, I'm not seeing the vision.
- ozten 3y ago
  The Varjo VR headset is the leader in Enterprise training and design. The headset cost more than $6,000 per unit plus it has an annual subscription fee more than $1500. The Vision Pro is a direct competitor to the Varjo. Early reports are that it is better. It comes in at half the price and no subscription fees. The Vario is what some Apple employees used as devkits during the software development phase. Apple is masterful at bringing the public along slowly with an easy to digest narrative. They don't tell the whole story right up front, because people need the breadcrumbs and onboarding.
  - chrisco255 3y ago
    Got to be honest, I have never even heard of the Varjo. Nor have I ever even heard of anyone needing or using a VR headset in an enterprise setting, except for gimicky demos.
- Brendinooo 3y ago
  I spent too long tracking down a figure and didn't come up with anything definitive, but > smart phones / camera phones were a valid market feels revisionist. Something like 70% of Americans had a feature phone in 2007 but smartphone market share was probably in the single digits before the iPhone launched. I had a Palm m100 back in the day; PDAs and early smartphones weren't all that great, and it wasn't obvious to laymen that the hardware and software would scale down enough and be combined with a compelling enough interaction model to create something useful for the masses. You're right that the iPhone demo had some killer features apparent. Jobs had three tentpoles: better iPod, a phone, a good internet machine. Cook mimicked this for the Watch keynote: a timepiece, a new way to communicate, a health and fitness device. But for the latter, it wasn't apparent just how much the health and fitness stuff would become a part of the story, nor was it apparent that people ended up liking the Watch for keeping their phone out of their hands or being able to accessorize. I don't think the Vision Pro reveal was as effective, but the tentpoles seem to be immersive media consumption (with movies and photos as a 1a and 1b), monitor replacement, and better FaceTime meetings. The last one seems particularly suspect, but the first two are pretty strong.

by ozten 3y ago

Steve Ballmer laughing at the iPhone as "the world's most expensive phone" type of moment https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U

scj 3y ago

I keep thinking about the Newton as a distant ancestor of the iPhone. The germ of the idea was there, but the use cases and tech (specifically networking) weren't even close. How close to prime time is AR? It's hard to judge that without hands on experience. Close or not, unlike the mid-90s, Apple can likely afford to burn money for a while on a big gamble. Trying to open up a new product category that plays to Apple's strengths is probably the correct strategy, so long as there isn't a better viable product. I doubt this will storm the world the same way the iPhone did, so it'll likely be a while before it can be judged as a success or failure.

ozten 3y ago
I don't think MixedReality will ever go mainstream, but I think it will have a long tail of niches that it is extremely successful in (Training, 3D Design, Gaming, exercise, etc). For general productivity, I feel that the laptop and external monitor is the sweet spot for the peak of computing. All other optimizations have given diminishing returns. For consumption, the mobile phone is the sweet spot. I put up with a lot of jank and discomfort with my VR headset, because the feeling of Presence is so transformative in gaming, exercise, and entertainment for me. I don't think the majority of people will choose that trade-off on a regular basis, especially in social environments.

chrisco255 3y ago

This is a pretty lazy analogy. Mobile phones were already carried by a large majority of adults when the iPhone came out. The iPhone didn't prove that everyone needed a cell phone, or even that smart phones / camera phones were a valid market (remember Blackberry? Palm Treo? Windows Mobile? Sidekick?) it just made a much better phone and mobile OS than anyone else had up to that point. And it introduced a number of killer features that were immediately apparent: -GPS for navigation (almost immediately made Tom Toms in cars obsolete) with Google Maps -Pinch to zoom for the pre-responsive mobile web, with full HTML websites on device -Glass touch haptics with gestures: pinch, double tap, swipe up/down/right/left, etc -Unlimited data back when it was unheard of -Unlimited text messaging back when it was rare -Solid camera experience with both front and back facing camera -Complete iPod replacement with built-in iTunes, a killer app at the time with no peer -Visual voicemail -A usable touch screen keyboard, with intuitive multi-touch controls -HTML email -YouTube app built-in -Accelerometer for orientation-based controls -Proximity and ambient light sensors -Apps, apps, apps. Although App Store wasn't immediately ready for 1st gen iPhone, it was apparent that apps were coming and that they would be amazing, with plenty of built-in 1st and 3rd party apps at launch. Every other mobile phone that implemented apps up to that point did so with a ton of red tape and licensing fees When the iPhone was announced by Jobs in 2007, it was 5 years ahead of any other phone on the market. The Vision Pro, on the other hand, pitches itself as a $3500 monitor replacement, I guess? It doesn't even have one killer app. You could feel the hype and excitement for the original iPhone on day one. Maybe Vision Pro will evolve into something killer in the 2nd or 3rd generation offering. But as it stands, I'm not seeing the vision.

ozten 3y ago
The Varjo VR headset is the leader in Enterprise training and design. The headset cost more than $6,000 per unit plus it has an annual subscription fee more than $1500. The Vision Pro is a direct competitor to the Varjo. Early reports are that it is better. It comes in at half the price and no subscription fees. The Vario is what some Apple employees used as devkits during the software development phase. Apple is masterful at bringing the public along slowly with an easy to digest narrative. They don't tell the whole story right up front, because people need the breadcrumbs and onboarding.
- chrisco255 3y ago
  Got to be honest, I have never even heard of the Varjo. Nor have I ever even heard of anyone needing or using a VR headset in an enterprise setting, except for gimicky demos.
Brendinooo 3y ago
I spent too long tracking down a figure and didn't come up with anything definitive, but > smart phones / camera phones were a valid market feels revisionist. Something like 70% of Americans had a feature phone in 2007 but smartphone market share was probably in the single digits before the iPhone launched. I had a Palm m100 back in the day; PDAs and early smartphones weren't all that great, and it wasn't obvious to laymen that the hardware and software would scale down enough and be combined with a compelling enough interaction model to create something useful for the masses. You're right that the iPhone demo had some killer features apparent. Jobs had three tentpoles: better iPod, a phone, a good internet machine. Cook mimicked this for the Watch keynote: a timepiece, a new way to communicate, a health and fitness device. But for the latter, it wasn't apparent just how much the health and fitness stuff would become a part of the story, nor was it apparent that people ended up liking the Watch for keeping their phone out of their hands or being able to accessorize. I don't think the Vision Pro reveal was as effective, but the tentpoles seem to be immersive media consumption (with movies and photos as a 1a and 1b), monitor replacement, and better FaceTime meetings. The last one seems particularly suspect, but the first two are pretty strong.