5 ms·

It's pretty frustrating how ridiculous people sound when dismissing LLMs. They barely even try to think about this stuff. First thought, best thought.

rank0 3y ago
You believe LLMs are capable of predicting financial markets? In his line of work, he’s absolutely right. Correlations change. Markets react to themselves. LLMs may have some place in analyzing prior data…but it can’t predict what interest rates will be, whether or not congress will increase taxes on stock buybacks, or anticipate an armed conflict with China. Let’s get real here FFS
- maxilevi 3y ago
  I agree but he wasn't talking about predicting financial markets, he was talking about global implications in industries like law and finance. And LLMs as a knowledge retrieval mechanism can already be pretty useful in those areas.
  - JohnFen 3y ago
    They can, yes. But the hype machine that's running overtime about LLMs is not making that case at all. It's all about how LLMs are some kind of miracle machine that will either solve or cause all of mankind's problems. The hype is insane and is absolutely harming the cause that the pro-AI crowd is trying to push forward. I wouldn't really mind this much aside from on grounds of taste, except that it's actively preventing people from actually understanding these technologies and being able to reach grounded conclusions about them.
    - than3 3y ago
      Well it most definitely will cause unrest/revolution if it stalls the economic cycle where people can't get food. That's happened enough times in recorded history to have a solid causal link. Which is already possible with current LLM capabilities; but since its decentralized won't be noticeable until its too late (like a dam breaking).
      - JimtheCoder 3y ago
        "Well it most definitely will cause unrest/revolution if it stalls the economic cycle where people can't get food. That's happened enough times in recorded history to have a solid causal link." Examples? Genuinely curious
        than3 3y ago
        More recently: https://www.csis.org/analysis/dangerously-hungry-link-between-food-insecurity-and-conflict https://www.csis.org/analysis/dangerously-hungry-link-betwee... https://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2022/07/12/food-insecurity-and-unrest-what-you-need-to-know/ https://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2022/07/12/food-insec... Less recently: https://law.uoregon.edu/sites/law2.uoregon.edu/files/fakhri_history_of_food_2020.pdf https://law.uoregon.edu/sites/law2.uoregon.edu/files/fakhri_... Boyd Orr also wrote on the subject and won the Nobel peace price in 1949 for his work.
      - JohnFen 3y ago
        Yes, this is the main, and major, problem I see with this tech (and to be fair, it's not so much a problem with the tech as it's a problem with how we as a society handle work and earning a living). At this point, that result is looking probable to me. I hope I'm wrong. But mainstream skepticism of LLMs largely revolves around absurd hype along the lines of "AI will be a malevolent superintelligence" (which is just the flip side of same absurd argument that many AI proponents engage in: "AI will be a beneficial superintelligence") which makes discussing more realistic risks and their possible solutions difficult if not impossible.
      - mrtranscendence 3y ago
        What, exactly, is already possible with current LLM capabilities? If you're implying they could replace workers, I don't think that will happen broadly. They're simply not that good yet, and it's unclear to me that they'll become that good in the next several years. And they definitely can't replace most jobs that involve any kind of manual labor.
        3y ago
- than3 3y ago
  I believe the large number of people using LLMs are capable of noticing when there is a hole in the market that is actively being used to steal people's retirement money. This announcement smacks of a fear trade to dissuade a lot of people from looking closer at things they shouldn't be looking closely at. Backtest Gamestop and FRC. You'll notice two different inconsistencies with the options, and market makers actions/reactions even before the first breaking news that FRC was in trouble, or the fake news where people posted edited video claiming a bank run was in progress (on a Sunday, where the FRC sign was reversed in the wrong direction for a glass reflection relative to the position the shot was being taken from). Lets definitely get real here. What happens when you create a lot of additional counterfeit shares in a market where the number of buyers or sellers on the ticker decides price action (up or down)... It goes down. Ask yourself how holding/writing options works when a company goes into receivership, and how it differs when you are a market maker instead of a individual. Do you really believe there is no preferential treatment where the entity deciding has a conflict of interest (because its on the hook if the market maker is on the hook). How is that not jumping on the bandwagon of potential price manipulation to bankrupt a company (any company)? Obviously do your own due dilligence. When they say its done on a case-by-case basis, and they have a vested interest in the outcome; shady stuff rarely ever gets punished; its how corruption and fraud work.
  - rank0 3y ago
    Anomaly detection has been around for a long time. You don’t need a chat based LLM to analyze data. The beauty of the markets is that you can put your money where your mouth is. If you believe there’s an inefficiency go fill it yourself and become rich.
pmart123 3y ago
Completely agree on his take. Generative AI perhaps might be good at certain, specific tasks in terms of pulling or summarizing information for an analyst, but it won't help predict markets. It'll be much better at helping aid in software where the problem is more deterministic.

rank0 3y ago

You believe LLMs are capable of predicting financial markets? In his line of work, he’s absolutely right. Correlations change. Markets react to themselves. LLMs may have some place in analyzing prior data…but it can’t predict what interest rates will be, whether or not congress will increase taxes on stock buybacks, or anticipate an armed conflict with China. Let’s get real here FFS

maxilevi 3y ago
I agree but he wasn't talking about predicting financial markets, he was talking about global implications in industries like law and finance. And LLMs as a knowledge retrieval mechanism can already be pretty useful in those areas.
- JohnFen 3y ago
  They can, yes. But the hype machine that's running overtime about LLMs is not making that case at all. It's all about how LLMs are some kind of miracle machine that will either solve or cause all of mankind's problems. The hype is insane and is absolutely harming the cause that the pro-AI crowd is trying to push forward. I wouldn't really mind this much aside from on grounds of taste, except that it's actively preventing people from actually understanding these technologies and being able to reach grounded conclusions about them.
  - than3 3y ago
    Well it most definitely will cause unrest/revolution if it stalls the economic cycle where people can't get food. That's happened enough times in recorded history to have a solid causal link. Which is already possible with current LLM capabilities; but since its decentralized won't be noticeable until its too late (like a dam breaking).
    - JimtheCoder 3y ago
      "Well it most definitely will cause unrest/revolution if it stalls the economic cycle where people can't get food. That's happened enough times in recorded history to have a solid causal link." Examples? Genuinely curious
      - than3 3y ago
        More recently: https://www.csis.org/analysis/dangerously-hungry-link-between-food-insecurity-and-conflict https://www.csis.org/analysis/dangerously-hungry-link-betwee... https://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2022/07/12/food-insecurity-and-unrest-what-you-need-to-know/ https://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2022/07/12/food-insec... Less recently: https://law.uoregon.edu/sites/law2.uoregon.edu/files/fakhri_history_of_food_2020.pdf https://law.uoregon.edu/sites/law2.uoregon.edu/files/fakhri_... Boyd Orr also wrote on the subject and won the Nobel peace price in 1949 for his work.
    - JohnFen 3y ago
      Yes, this is the main, and major, problem I see with this tech (and to be fair, it's not so much a problem with the tech as it's a problem with how we as a society handle work and earning a living). At this point, that result is looking probable to me. I hope I'm wrong. But mainstream skepticism of LLMs largely revolves around absurd hype along the lines of "AI will be a malevolent superintelligence" (which is just the flip side of same absurd argument that many AI proponents engage in: "AI will be a beneficial superintelligence") which makes discussing more realistic risks and their possible solutions difficult if not impossible.
    - mrtranscendence 3y ago
      What, exactly, is already possible with current LLM capabilities? If you're implying they could replace workers, I don't think that will happen broadly. They're simply not that good yet, and it's unclear to me that they'll become that good in the next several years. And they definitely can't replace most jobs that involve any kind of manual labor.
      - 3y ago
than3 3y ago
I believe the large number of people using LLMs are capable of noticing when there is a hole in the market that is actively being used to steal people's retirement money. This announcement smacks of a fear trade to dissuade a lot of people from looking closer at things they shouldn't be looking closely at. Backtest Gamestop and FRC. You'll notice two different inconsistencies with the options, and market makers actions/reactions even before the first breaking news that FRC was in trouble, or the fake news where people posted edited video claiming a bank run was in progress (on a Sunday, where the FRC sign was reversed in the wrong direction for a glass reflection relative to the position the shot was being taken from). Lets definitely get real here. What happens when you create a lot of additional counterfeit shares in a market where the number of buyers or sellers on the ticker decides price action (up or down)... It goes down. Ask yourself how holding/writing options works when a company goes into receivership, and how it differs when you are a market maker instead of a individual. Do you really believe there is no preferential treatment where the entity deciding has a conflict of interest (because its on the hook if the market maker is on the hook). How is that not jumping on the bandwagon of potential price manipulation to bankrupt a company (any company)? Obviously do your own due dilligence. When they say its done on a case-by-case basis, and they have a vested interest in the outcome; shady stuff rarely ever gets punished; its how corruption and fraud work.
- rank0 3y ago
  Anomaly detection has been around for a long time. You don’t need a chat based LLM to analyze data. The beauty of the markets is that you can put your money where your mouth is. If you believe there’s an inefficiency go fill it yourself and become rich.

pmart123 3y ago

Completely agree on his take. Generative AI perhaps might be good at certain, specific tasks in terms of pulling or summarizing information for an analyst, but it won't help predict markets. It'll be much better at helping aid in software where the problem is more deterministic.