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> “Here’s the problem with large language models: they are built on the past, everything we do is about the future,” Griffin said. So Ken sees books and backte
by maxilevi 3y ago
> “Here’s the problem with large language models: they are built on the past, everything we do is about the future,” Griffin said.
So Ken sees books and backtesting trading strats as useless too?
I really expected more knowledgeable answers
- JimtheCoder 3y ago"So Ken sees books and backtesting trading strats as useless too?" You think Ken Griffin is reading books on how to make money in the market? Running a successful market maker? Maybe, but I doubt it. I think in the context of his business, he is probably right...
- maxilevi 3y agoNo, but I bet his quants backtest trading strategies. His argument for dismissing LLMs is nonsensical, just because something uses information from the past doesn't mean its useless. In fact, every tool we have can match that criticism in one way or another
- JimtheCoder 3y agoYes, but backtesting does not need an LLM...backtesting has been a thing for many, many years. Also, if you listen to any of his other speeches, or read the article, he does mention that they are using LLMs to port code from one language to another...so, he is not entirely dismissing LLMs.
- ryanklee 3y agoIt's pretty frustrating how ridiculous people sound when dismissing LLMs. They barely even try to think about this stuff. First thought, best thought.
- rank0 3y agoYou believe LLMs are capable of predicting financial markets? In his line of work, he’s absolutely right. Correlations change. Markets react to themselves. LLMs may have some place in analyzing prior data…but it can’t predict what interest rates will be, whether or not congress will increase taxes on stock buybacks, or anticipate an armed conflict with China. Let’s get real here FFS
- maxilevi 3y agoI agree but he wasn't talking about predicting financial markets, he was talking about global implications in industries like law and finance. And LLMs as a knowledge retrieval mechanism can already be pretty useful in those areas.
- JohnFen 3y agoThey can, yes. But the hype machine that's running overtime about LLMs is not making that case at all. It's all about how LLMs are some kind of miracle machine that will either solve or cause all of mankind's problems. The hype is insane and is absolutely harming the cause that the pro-AI crowd is trying to push forward. I wouldn't really mind this much aside from on grounds of taste, except that it's actively preventing people from actually understanding these technologies and being able to reach grounded conclusions about them.
- than3 3y agoWell it most definitely will cause unrest/revolution if it stalls the economic cycle where people can't get food. That's happened enough times in recorded history to have a solid causal link. Which is already possible with current LLM capabilities; but since its decentralized won't be noticeable until its too late (like a dam breaking).
- JimtheCoder 3y ago"Well it most definitely will cause unrest/revolution if it stalls the economic cycle where people can't get food. That's happened enough times in recorded history to have a solid causal link." Examples? Genuinely curious
- pmart123 3y agoCompletely agree on his take. Generative AI perhaps might be good at certain, specific tasks in terms of pulling or summarizing information for an analyst, but it won't help predict markets. It'll be much better at helping aid in software where the problem is more deterministic.