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> Yet labor markets are strong, with record low unemployment across the board. I wonder if the anecdata or the real data are right. You have to give it more ti

> Yet labor markets are strong, with record low unemployment across the board. I wonder if the anecdata or the real data are right. You have to give it more time. Even if this would lead to less employees needed, it will take a few years before the effects will be seen. It's a quite slow process: 1. A sufficiently large part of the work force has to learn it and start using it in an efficient manner. 2. It has to be noticed, measured and evaluated as being more efficient by management. 3. Management has to decide to lay off people instead of being happy with the improved efficiencies and possibly higher profits. 4. Lay-offs take time. From step 3 to actually taking action can take time, and from the actual notice to the person being in the job seeking market also often takes many months.

versteegen 3y ago
Those are only the first steps. Companies with a relatively inflexible amount of programming that they need doing might lay off staff, but it'll have neglible net effect while other companies want more work done faster. How much unmet need for software is there in the world? Probably an enormous amount. It's pretty easy to think of software you wished existed or wished had an extra ten thousand hours of improvements put into it. It could take decades before efficiency gains translate into reducing numbers of programmers in employment. ... Edit: I mean competent programmers in employment. Easy to imagine that when there are more highly productive programmers around there will be less need for the ones that are less so.
- namaria 3y ago
  Historically, when a resource becomes cheaper, its demand increases. AI, as a type of software, can, like software, make human labor more productive. I.e. it's output become cheaper. Efficiency gains don't create unemployment, they create economic growth. Corporate greed creates unemployment. McKinsey has created much pain. Are we defining Corporations as forms of AI? If not, AI (as software) causes the economy to grow and employment to increase.
  - JohnFen 3y ago
    > Efficiency gains don't create unemployment, they create economic growth. Stated as a blanket rule, this is simply untrue. As is its opposite. Reality is much more nuanced than that. For instance, even if things become less expensive, how much would that matter to people who have no income?
    - namaria 3y ago
      No, literally. That's a basic tenet of economics. Where does economic growth come from? Productivity gains. What are productivity gains? Better efficiency in using factors of production.

versteegen 3y ago

Those are only the first steps. Companies with a relatively inflexible amount of programming that they need doing might lay off staff, but it'll have neglible net effect while other companies want more work done faster. How much unmet need for software is there in the world? Probably an enormous amount. It's pretty easy to think of software you wished existed or wished had an extra ten thousand hours of improvements put into it. It could take decades before efficiency gains translate into reducing numbers of programmers in employment. ... Edit: I mean competent programmers in employment. Easy to imagine that when there are more highly productive programmers around there will be less need for the ones that are less so.

namaria 3y ago
Historically, when a resource becomes cheaper, its demand increases. AI, as a type of software, can, like software, make human labor more productive. I.e. it's output become cheaper. Efficiency gains don't create unemployment, they create economic growth. Corporate greed creates unemployment. McKinsey has created much pain. Are we defining Corporations as forms of AI? If not, AI (as software) causes the economy to grow and employment to increase.
- JohnFen 3y ago
  > Efficiency gains don't create unemployment, they create economic growth. Stated as a blanket rule, this is simply untrue. As is its opposite. Reality is much more nuanced than that. For instance, even if things become less expensive, how much would that matter to people who have no income?
  - namaria 3y ago
    No, literally. That's a basic tenet of economics. Where does economic growth come from? Productivity gains. What are productivity gains? Better efficiency in using factors of production.