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LatAm has two issues. The first is demographics (and "demographics is destiny"). There is not an expected population boom the way you have in West Africa. The

LatAm has two issues. The first is demographics (and "demographics is destiny"). There is not an expected population boom the way you have in West Africa. There will be tons of growth (look at Mercado Libre, a 63 billion dollar company), but that growth will come from people coming online and spending online, without the tailwinds of a growing young population. The second issue with LatAm is that—for "startup" purposes—just two markets. Brazil and Mexico. Everything else doesn't really add up and requires lots of localization for very small markets. This is exacerbated in places like the Caribbean. So you end up having quite concentrated political/macro risk in two countries. There are VERY good reasons to invest in LatAm, but the best case scenario for LatAm is something like 2-3x South Korea, not China.

teachrdan 3y ago
> just two markets. Brazil and Mexico Naively, I'd expect Argentina + Chile to be essentially one giant local market, as they are united by language, geographic proximity and relative wealth. Why isn't that the case?
- el_nahual 3y ago
  a) Vastly different currencies/policy exposure. Argentina is an economic dumpster fire while Chile (and/or Uruguay) is kind of the "Singapore of south America." b) Even together they are tiny. Chile is 25% the GDP of Mexico, with a much higher GDP per capita. ie, Mexico is both much larger now and has much more headroom to grow.
- travisjungroth 3y ago
  Governments. Two sets of laws, two currencies, etc. This applies to every LATAM country. It’s just Brazil and Mexico are the biggest. It’s also bad because the governments are relatively bureaucratic and/or corrupt. So there are 650 million people, but it’s like the value is in a few dozen hard to open boxes.
- wslh 3y ago
  Impossible. The EU is more legally united after war that we are being all neighbors in peace. The fragility of the legal system in LATAM is a nightmare. It can change from day to night and the law is arbitrary. There is never a precise right or wrong. Chile is the most organized country but now the one with more potential.

teachrdan 3y ago

> just two markets. Brazil and Mexico Naively, I'd expect Argentina + Chile to be essentially one giant local market, as they are united by language, geographic proximity and relative wealth. Why isn't that the case?

el_nahual 3y ago
a) Vastly different currencies/policy exposure. Argentina is an economic dumpster fire while Chile (and/or Uruguay) is kind of the "Singapore of south America." b) Even together they are tiny. Chile is 25% the GDP of Mexico, with a much higher GDP per capita. ie, Mexico is both much larger now and has much more headroom to grow.
travisjungroth 3y ago
Governments. Two sets of laws, two currencies, etc. This applies to every LATAM country. It’s just Brazil and Mexico are the biggest. It’s also bad because the governments are relatively bureaucratic and/or corrupt. So there are 650 million people, but it’s like the value is in a few dozen hard to open boxes.
wslh 3y ago
Impossible. The EU is more legally united after war that we are being all neighbors in peace. The fragility of the legal system in LATAM is a nightmare. It can change from day to night and the law is arbitrary. There is never a precise right or wrong. Chile is the most organized country but now the one with more potential.