Social stuff is best approached from a statistical confidence model that allows for "This might be the one in ten times my assumption is wrong." I wonder if/ho

Social stuff is best approached from a statistical confidence model that allows for "This might be the one in ten times my assumption is wrong." I wonder if/how they incorporate that. Because a lot of social drama comes from humans betting on the statistically likely thing in social situations and it being wrong rather than checking or hedging their bet. ("I shall assume the white male is in charge. Oops. Now I've offended the woman or person of color who is actually in charge.")