3 ms·

Apple's problem is that the "pro" version is not just twice as expensive as the "consumer" version needs to be in order to be a market success, it's ten times m

Apple's problem is that the "pro" version is not just twice as expensive as the "consumer" version needs to be in order to be a market success, it's ten times more expensive than the consumer version needs to be. edit: the fanatics are really out with the downvotes today

rsynnott 3y ago
I'd assume any credible consumer version will be a few years down the road, anyway.
- justin66 3y ago
  I think that's definitely true. To get to that point, Apple's multifaceted problem seems to be knocking a huge amount off the price of the thing while convincing a significant number of users to buy and actually use it (instead of putting it on a shelf after a few uses as so many Oculus users have done over the years), and also to convince a few excellent software developers to create worthwhile stuff for it. They can throw a ton of money at that problem, but I wonder how effective that can possibly be.
- WorldMaker 3y ago
  The Day One Disney+ and Disney interest in the keynote to me reads like Apple are hinting that they have a much more aggressive consumer timeline than "a few years down the road". I'm very curious what Apple is thinking/betting here.
DrammBA 3y ago
Is it really a problem if it works and people buy it?
- justin66 3y ago
  "People buy it" could mean a lot of things and I'm not sure what you mean. I don't think anyone is arguing that literally no people will buy it. "It works and people buy it" is a phrase that could be used to describe the Magic Leap One. In my comment I wrote "be a market success."
MagnumOpus 3y ago
People buy non-pro iPhones for $800 - 20% less than the Pro; they are willing to buy MacBook Air's for >$1000 or so, more than half the price of a Pro; if this is marketed as both a TV and computer monitor replacement, many will be willing to spend quadruple digits (or $45 a month for 24 months) even on next year's budget version.
zild3d 3y ago
That's not Apple's problem, that's the budget conscious consumer's problem
- prawn 3y ago
  I think you're right. There's a few opinions potentially clouded by "I'm jealous because I want this but can't afford it." If they were making a Quest 2 replacement, fine, talk about $500 pricepoints. If they can deliver a MacBook Pro replacement, then $2k+ is the ballpark.
alpaca128 3y ago
All non-budget smartphones of the last 5+ years were more expensive than what you imagine as consumer-compatible price.
esskay 3y ago
To go 10x lower we're at $339. Thats not happening, this thing has essentially a full blown macbook baked into it. Apple has never been interested in cheaping out, and in VR that's Meta's job - their Quest headsets are litterally using the cheapest possible ways of getting to its price point, and it shows. The consumer one will likely settle somewhere closer to $999 - matching the price of the cheapest macbook air. And it'll be a success at that price point, because by the time we get to that people will understand that it's not a quest with a mobile phone processor slapped inside, it's a laptop grade platform.
- justin66 3y ago
  > To go 10x lower we're at $339. Thats not happening, this thing has essentially a full blown macbook baked into it. The hardware could be a loss-leader if they intend to maintain their 30% commission on software purchases. Do we know if that's how it will work? (edit: but boy howdy, somebody would have to sell an awful lot of apps...) I guess we could debate what the exact multiple is by which this item is overpriced, but on a message board where people will leap to the defense of the $1000 Apple monitor stand (true story) I think I'll take a pass. The main point, I think, is that when the price right out of the gate is this exorbitant, a major tension exists between increasing user adoption and lowering prices via economies of scale.
basch 3y ago
Apple is best off with 4 tiers eventually. Vision Pro. Vision Classic. Vision Air. Vision S. (expensive, everyday, luxury slim, budget.) They can also make variants of those 4 using Nano and Max modifiers.

rsynnott 3y ago

I'd assume any credible consumer version will be a few years down the road, anyway.

justin66 3y ago
I think that's definitely true. To get to that point, Apple's multifaceted problem seems to be knocking a huge amount off the price of the thing while convincing a significant number of users to buy and actually use it (instead of putting it on a shelf after a few uses as so many Oculus users have done over the years), and also to convince a few excellent software developers to create worthwhile stuff for it. They can throw a ton of money at that problem, but I wonder how effective that can possibly be.
WorldMaker 3y ago
The Day One Disney+ and Disney interest in the keynote to me reads like Apple are hinting that they have a much more aggressive consumer timeline than "a few years down the road". I'm very curious what Apple is thinking/betting here.

DrammBA 3y ago

Is it really a problem if it works and people buy it?

justin66 3y ago
"People buy it" could mean a lot of things and I'm not sure what you mean. I don't think anyone is arguing that literally no people will buy it. "It works and people buy it" is a phrase that could be used to describe the Magic Leap One. In my comment I wrote "be a market success."

MagnumOpus 3y ago

People buy non-pro iPhones for $800 - 20% less than the Pro; they are willing to buy MacBook Air's for >$1000 or so, more than half the price of a Pro; if this is marketed as both a TV and computer monitor replacement, many will be willing to spend quadruple digits (or $45 a month for 24 months) even on next year's budget version.

zild3d 3y ago

That's not Apple's problem, that's the budget conscious consumer's problem

prawn 3y ago
I think you're right. There's a few opinions potentially clouded by "I'm jealous because I want this but can't afford it." If they were making a Quest 2 replacement, fine, talk about $500 pricepoints. If they can deliver a MacBook Pro replacement, then $2k+ is the ballpark.

alpaca128 3y ago

All non-budget smartphones of the last 5+ years were more expensive than what you imagine as consumer-compatible price.

esskay 3y ago

To go 10x lower we're at $339. Thats not happening, this thing has essentially a full blown macbook baked into it. Apple has never been interested in cheaping out, and in VR that's Meta's job - their Quest headsets are litterally using the cheapest possible ways of getting to its price point, and it shows. The consumer one will likely settle somewhere closer to $999 - matching the price of the cheapest macbook air. And it'll be a success at that price point, because by the time we get to that people will understand that it's not a quest with a mobile phone processor slapped inside, it's a laptop grade platform.

justin66 3y ago
> To go 10x lower we're at $339. Thats not happening, this thing has essentially a full blown macbook baked into it. The hardware could be a loss-leader if they intend to maintain their 30% commission on software purchases. Do we know if that's how it will work? (edit: but boy howdy, somebody would have to sell an awful lot of apps...) I guess we could debate what the exact multiple is by which this item is overpriced, but on a message board where people will leap to the defense of the $1000 Apple monitor stand (true story) I think I'll take a pass. The main point, I think, is that when the price right out of the gate is this exorbitant, a major tension exists between increasing user adoption and lowering prices via economies of scale.

basch 3y ago

Apple is best off with 4 tiers eventually. Vision Pro. Vision Classic. Vision Air. Vision S. (expensive, everyday, luxury slim, budget.) They can also make variants of those 4 using Nano and Max modifiers.