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Who benefits the most from the collapse? Does it disturb Ukraine or Russian military the most? Who will achieve military goals because of this? Does it help U

by nicce 3y ago

Who benefits the most from the collapse? Does it disturb Ukraine or Russian military the most? Who will achieve military goals because of this? Does it help Ukraine in information warfare? (does it increase West participation to war)

KptMarchewa 3y ago
Not really benefits anyone's offensive or defensive plans. Maybe political but that's a stretch. No one comes out with prepared narrative too, which makes it look like an accident.
- nicce 3y ago
  It has already caused loud cry from EU politicans, before we even know the reason. President of the European Council: "The destruction of civilian infrastructure clearly qualifies as a war crime - and we will hold Russia and its proxies accountable." https://twitter.com/CharlesMichel/status/1665971118354710529 https://twitter.com/CharlesMichel/status/1665971118354710529
- lost_tourist 3y ago
  However it didn't blow itself up, someone did it.
Yizahi 3y ago
Obviously ruzzia benefits, by blocking western front in preparation of the Ukrainian advance.
- nicce 3y ago
  It blocks or slows only couple weeks at max. Not really a big gain. The river has 6 dams. Ukraine can control the upstream flow. It is estimated than in three days, the highest point in downstream is reached and then it will get lower. In the war which has lasted more than year, the benefit is meaningless. On the other hand, the flow flushes all the Russian defenses on the other side. And the source of drinkable water in Crimean is ruined.
  - candiodari 3y ago
    The Ukrainian president said earlier the Russian army mined the dam, to prevent the bridge being used by Ukrainian military. Perhaps it detonated, either by accident, as a reaction to an actual Ukranian attack over the bridge, or simply because of a very nervous Russian soldier. On the plus side, this should mean the damage should not be too bad, as Ukraine had time to prepare. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/21/zelenskiy-accuses-russia-plot-blow-up-nova-kakhovka-dam-ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/21/zelenskiy-accu...
    - nicce 3y ago
      On the other hand, also the Russian has claimed Ukraine on planning the for blowing the dam. https://www.voanews.com/a/latest-developments-in-ukraine-oct-21/6799245.html https://www.voanews.com/a/latest-developments-in-ukraine-oct... None of the parties have supporting evidence (not for mines as well). Both parties are in information warfare, and everything is used for their own benefits. Everything they say, should be taken with a grain of salt. Immediately, when the dam was exploded, Zelensky said that now the world must react, and drive Russians from Ukraine, from all the territory and corners they have taken. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1666050733773299714?cxt=HHwWhICxxZaUgJ8uAAAA https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1666050733773299714?c... https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1665952784665964545?cxt=HHwWgsCz6eTO054uAAAA https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1665952784665964545?c...
      - _kbh_ 3y ago
        Here's a video of a Russian soldier doing everything short of admitting they did it. https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1666003021925347328 https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1666003021925347328
        nicce 3y ago
        The problem is, that we don't have access to up-to-date Russian military records. Is he really Russian soldier? If he is, can we guarantee that the video is not digitally created (deep fake)? If we guarantee the both, what is the motivation for Russian soldier to say it and what situation led to this video? Do we know, that this soldier was indeed responsible to be close to the dam? It is so difficult to say what is true these days.
polotics 3y ago
It seems to be the Muscovites giving up on folding Ukraine into their empire, and going for scorched earth instead before withdrawal. Here's hoping Belgorod and Kursk can be liberated soon.
Balgair 3y ago
Current chatter that I'm seeing indicates that the local RF commander got scared and blew the dam. It may not have been commanded by higher ups. So, the only benefactor seems to have been the local RF, and even then only until someone can got over there to ream him. How good is this info? Probably not the best. But it fits fine enough with how poorly commanded RF has been throughout this war.
lamontcg 3y ago
> Who benefits the most from the collapse? Russia. Turns everything from Zaporizhzhia to the Black Sea into a boggy-ass mess of mud (draining the reservoir will leave mud, flooding the downstream will leave mud). Filling the reservoir before blowing it like they did only maximizes the amount of mud left. Lets Russia shift more forces north.

by nicce 3y ago

KptMarchewa 3y ago

Not really benefits anyone's offensive or defensive plans. Maybe political but that's a stretch. No one comes out with prepared narrative too, which makes it look like an accident.

nicce 3y ago
It has already caused loud cry from EU politicans, before we even know the reason. President of the European Council: "The destruction of civilian infrastructure clearly qualifies as a war crime - and we will hold Russia and its proxies accountable." https://twitter.com/CharlesMichel/status/1665971118354710529 https://twitter.com/CharlesMichel/status/1665971118354710529
lost_tourist 3y ago
However it didn't blow itself up, someone did it.

Yizahi 3y ago

Obviously ruzzia benefits, by blocking western front in preparation of the Ukrainian advance.

nicce 3y ago
It blocks or slows only couple weeks at max. Not really a big gain. The river has 6 dams. Ukraine can control the upstream flow. It is estimated than in three days, the highest point in downstream is reached and then it will get lower. In the war which has lasted more than year, the benefit is meaningless. On the other hand, the flow flushes all the Russian defenses on the other side. And the source of drinkable water in Crimean is ruined.
- candiodari 3y ago
  The Ukrainian president said earlier the Russian army mined the dam, to prevent the bridge being used by Ukrainian military. Perhaps it detonated, either by accident, as a reaction to an actual Ukranian attack over the bridge, or simply because of a very nervous Russian soldier. On the plus side, this should mean the damage should not be too bad, as Ukraine had time to prepare. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/21/zelenskiy-accuses-russia-plot-blow-up-nova-kakhovka-dam-ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/21/zelenskiy-accu...
  - nicce 3y ago
    On the other hand, also the Russian has claimed Ukraine on planning the for blowing the dam. https://www.voanews.com/a/latest-developments-in-ukraine-oct-21/6799245.html https://www.voanews.com/a/latest-developments-in-ukraine-oct... None of the parties have supporting evidence (not for mines as well). Both parties are in information warfare, and everything is used for their own benefits. Everything they say, should be taken with a grain of salt. Immediately, when the dam was exploded, Zelensky said that now the world must react, and drive Russians from Ukraine, from all the territory and corners they have taken. https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1666050733773299714?cxt=HHwWhICxxZaUgJ8uAAAA https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1666050733773299714?c... https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1665952784665964545?cxt=HHwWgsCz6eTO054uAAAA https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1665952784665964545?c...
    - _kbh_ 3y ago
      Here's a video of a Russian soldier doing everything short of admitting they did it. https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1666003021925347328 https://twitter.com/den_kazansky/status/1666003021925347328
      - nicce 3y ago
        The problem is, that we don't have access to up-to-date Russian military records. Is he really Russian soldier? If he is, can we guarantee that the video is not digitally created (deep fake)? If we guarantee the both, what is the motivation for Russian soldier to say it and what situation led to this video? Do we know, that this soldier was indeed responsible to be close to the dam? It is so difficult to say what is true these days.

polotics 3y ago

It seems to be the Muscovites giving up on folding Ukraine into their empire, and going for scorched earth instead before withdrawal. Here's hoping Belgorod and Kursk can be liberated soon.

Balgair 3y ago

Current chatter that I'm seeing indicates that the local RF commander got scared and blew the dam. It may not have been commanded by higher ups. So, the only benefactor seems to have been the local RF, and even then only until someone can got over there to ream him. How good is this info? Probably not the best. But it fits fine enough with how poorly commanded RF has been throughout this war.

lamontcg 3y ago

> Who benefits the most from the collapse? Russia. Turns everything from Zaporizhzhia to the Black Sea into a boggy-ass mess of mud (draining the reservoir will leave mud, flooding the downstream will leave mud). Filling the reservoir before blowing it like they did only maximizes the amount of mud left. Lets Russia shift more forces north.