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Ukraine just started counterattack so this effectively blocks attack through Kherson region.

edrxty 3y ago
Following some of the threads, there's satellite evidence it may have just failed for mechanical reasons. If this was unintentional and they didn't abandon those positions downstream they're in for a bad time.
- dmix 3y ago
  The fact it's timed with the first day of the counter offensive and it's been long discussed as a very likely target for Russia that would be one hell of a coincidence.
  - edrxty 3y ago
    Yeah it's a bit of a weird one. https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1665915785707921408?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1665915785707921408%7Ctwgr%5E7a493051d37c7243ef5ac9514b7b4893228e90d5%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2023%2Fjun%2F06%2Frussia-ukraine-war-live-dam-near-kherson-blown-up-by-russian-forces-ukrainian-military-says https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1665915785707921408?ref_... Looks like the dam had been running extremely high so there's cause beyond just random chance, but even that high level could have been deliberate.
    - sgc 3y ago
      Regardless of what actually happened today, the high level was absolutely deliberate, it is just basic dam maintenance to let more water out when it fills. And that was absolutely reckless, contributing to certain deaths today. Of course, if you are planning on blowing the dam, that makes sense for maximum damage, but I speculate.
      - dmix 3y ago
        Maybe forcing a mechanical failure provides more plausible deniability than simply blowing it up? It also makes it easier to repair considering it's still a valuable source of water for Crimea.
        sgc 3y ago
        A hydrologist on twitter said that it would require far fewer explosives to blow it up when overfilled. If they were short on those, it would be another reason.
        fbdab103 3y ago
        Easier to repair? Did you see the pictures? Not an engineer, but that looks like they will have to tear down whatever is still standing and rebuild from scratch.
        dmix 3y ago
        Yeah after seeing the video I don't think it makes much difference if it was explosives or not. Nevermind :)
  - twelve40 3y ago
    It's been shelled for months probably by all parties at some point > Ukraine's Armed Forces (UAF) "developed a tactic to work around that limitation by conducting multiple precision strikes across the key Antonivskiy Bridge and the road that ran atop the Kakhovka Dam in such a way as to break the roadways in a line across them, rendering them unusable without actually destroying the bridges' infrastructure (or badly damaging the dam)," the think tank said. https://www.newsweek.com/us-himars-helped-ukraine-retake-kherson-russia-1759315 https://www.newsweek.com/us-himars-helped-ukraine-retake-khe...
    - dralley 3y ago
      That roadway was taken out 8 months ago.
    - KptMarchewa 3y ago
      Dam wasn't shelled, roadway was on the side pretty far from dam.
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - twelve40 3y ago
        Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages. The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offe...
        KptMarchewa 3y ago
        The dam is totally broken, not "raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages", besides there are no russian crossings now. There will be no crossings for months too as soil captures shit ton of water.
- cycomanic 3y ago
  Did you look at the video posted above? A big chunk of concrete like that doesn't just fail for mechanical reasons (what does that even mean?).
commandnotfound 3y ago
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deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

Following some of the threads, there's satellite evidence it may have just failed for mechanical reasons. If this was unintentional and they didn't abandon those positions downstream they're in for a bad time.

dmix 3y ago
The fact it's timed with the first day of the counter offensive and it's been long discussed as a very likely target for Russia that would be one hell of a coincidence.
- edrxty 3y ago
  Yeah it's a bit of a weird one. https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1665915785707921408?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1665915785707921408%7Ctwgr%5E7a493051d37c7243ef5ac9514b7b4893228e90d5%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2023%2Fjun%2F06%2Frussia-ukraine-war-live-dam-near-kherson-blown-up-by-russian-forces-ukrainian-military-says https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1665915785707921408?ref_... Looks like the dam had been running extremely high so there's cause beyond just random chance, but even that high level could have been deliberate.
  - sgc 3y ago
    Regardless of what actually happened today, the high level was absolutely deliberate, it is just basic dam maintenance to let more water out when it fills. And that was absolutely reckless, contributing to certain deaths today. Of course, if you are planning on blowing the dam, that makes sense for maximum damage, but I speculate.
    - dmix 3y ago
      Maybe forcing a mechanical failure provides more plausible deniability than simply blowing it up? It also makes it easier to repair considering it's still a valuable source of water for Crimea.
      - sgc 3y ago
        A hydrologist on twitter said that it would require far fewer explosives to blow it up when overfilled. If they were short on those, it would be another reason.
      - fbdab103 3y ago
        Easier to repair? Did you see the pictures? Not an engineer, but that looks like they will have to tear down whatever is still standing and rebuild from scratch.
        dmix 3y ago
        Yeah after seeing the video I don't think it makes much difference if it was explosives or not. Nevermind :)
- twelve40 3y ago
  It's been shelled for months probably by all parties at some point > Ukraine's Armed Forces (UAF) "developed a tactic to work around that limitation by conducting multiple precision strikes across the key Antonivskiy Bridge and the road that ran atop the Kakhovka Dam in such a way as to break the roadways in a line across them, rendering them unusable without actually destroying the bridges' infrastructure (or badly damaging the dam)," the think tank said. https://www.newsweek.com/us-himars-helped-ukraine-retake-kherson-russia-1759315 https://www.newsweek.com/us-himars-helped-ukraine-retake-khe...
  - dralley 3y ago
    That roadway was taken out 8 months ago.
  - KptMarchewa 3y ago
    Dam wasn't shelled, roadway was on the side pretty far from dam.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - twelve40 3y ago
      Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages. The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offensive-kharkiv-kherson-donetsk/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/29/ukraine-offe...
      - KptMarchewa 3y ago
        The dam is totally broken, not "raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages", besides there are no russian crossings now. There will be no crossings for months too as soil captures shit ton of water.
cycomanic 3y ago
Did you look at the video posted above? A big chunk of concrete like that doesn't just fail for mechanical reasons (what does that even mean?).

commandnotfound 3y ago

[flagged]

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]