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No one will create the killer app because they won't have enough people to buy it. They aren't going to sell 100 million of these things. They will sell 1 milli
by dumbfounder 3y ago
No one will create the killer app because they won't have enough people to buy it. They aren't going to sell 100 million of these things. They will sell 1 million to prosumers. But you can't make a killer high-end game on a completely new system with completely new features with such a limited market, they would need to sell it everyone to make money. That's the real problem with AR/VR. You need critical mass in the number of users to justify people building mass-market appeal games and apps. The goggles need to not have a cord, be 1/3 as heavy, and 1/4 the price, and then we will get mass adoption. My gut says we are 3 generations away. But it will happen.
- wangii 3y agokiller app sells systems, not the other way around.
- dumbfounder 3y agoThat’s exactly what I said in a different way. No one will make the killer app because it isn’t economical to do so.
- terafo 3y agoYes, they are going to sell 1 million. In this generation. Next generation will have non pro model. You can sell ten millions of that. It is not going to kill phones, but it will absolutely slaughter laptops. This generation is basically just devkits.
- SkyPuncher 3y agoI don't think it's hit people (including me) that this is not just a headset. It's a full-blown computer. You can take just the device and a keyboard with you to work anywhere.
- svnt 3y agoYou won’t need a keyboard.
- dbmnt 3y agoEventually, maybe. In the keynote, there was a vague outline of a virtual keyboard, but (unless I missed it) we never saw that virtual keyboard in use. Instead, the demo pivoted to using a paired Magic Keyboard.
- kaba0 3y agoYou do. I’m 100% sure that flickering your fingers in the air simple (besides looking like an absolute moron) doesn’t have enough information to accurately type. Also, your arms will fatigue immediately.
- svnt 3y agoIf you can position things in AR, you can put keyboard keys down on wood grain and the device can tell where your fingers land. If you can escape the skeuomorphic trap, many things are possible. A mechanical keyboard is certainly not the universally optimal means of character entry. Maybe not in this rev, probably not at launch based on the video, but keyboards as we know them are due for an overhaul.
- kaba0 3y ago> A mechanical keyboard is certainly not the universally optimal means of character entry. Funnily enough, I think that this is basically the ultimate limit of touch based systems — humans rely very much on touch, and touch screens’ smooth surface removes every physical hint from the system. Just remember back to how we could compose a whole message blindly in our pockets with feature phones, yet I can’t write a sentence correctly nowadays without constantly looking at the screen. Now you would even take away that? Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think that the keyboard layout or anything is the optimum, but it is sure as hell closer to it than randomly hitting the table. The mechanical part is funnily being the key part.
- chaostheory 3y agoApple isn’t the only one with an XR device. Devs can still hone their ideas now that they have UX direction. The Apple AR SDK has been out for years now too. The first iPhone also only had 1.4 million in sales. I’m not even sure the App Store was even out until the 2nd Gen.
- ppsreejith 3y agoThe original iPhone sold some 6 million units from what I can google. Steve Jobs himself said 200 days after the launch of the first iPhone that they sold 4 million units. Source: https://www.macworld.com/article/188823/liveupdate-17.html https://www.macworld.com/article/188823/liveupdate-17.html
- chaostheory 3y agoYou’re right.