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The Pandemic Caused a Baby Boom in Red States and a Bust in Blue States

ggm 3y ago
It's careful not to make strong attribution to why. My gut feel from a great distance in time and place and income, is that without simple direct access to over the counter contraception close to time, and after the event, poorer economies see higher rates of unplanned pregnancy. The higher income states see higher rates of managed contraception longterm. So purely on income and access, under covid I could see people who relied on "just in time" contraception on a case-by-case "get lucky" basis had higher rates of birth than people who were achieving same/similar rates of contraception but from a planned longterm basis. I assume the levels of boredom in each economic/voter set are roughly equal. Kids be kids, no matter what.
- turrican 3y ago
  I don’t believe that this would explain the bust in blue states. If they were already on birth control pre-pandemic, shouldn’t their birth rates have stayed level or even gone slightly up with all the free time stuck at home? Instead they went down.
  - abeppu 3y ago
    But if you were in a blue state, taking the first lock-down really seriously, were you less likely to want to decide that that now was a good time to try to have a kid, when the world is in crisis and the hospitals might be scary to go to? Would you feel less like having sex even if you have a partner b/c you've both been in the house together for way too much time? Or because you're stressed from the world being upside-down? Or if you already had a child, were you more exhausted from trying to do both childcare and WFH? Would you be less likely to have a whirlwind encounter with a new partner that turns into an unexpected pregnancy b/c you're sheltering in place? I'm guessing we don't have data on any of these but I think the baby bust is entirely understandable if you're in an environment that's taking a global pandemic really seriously.
    - BadCookie 3y ago
      In particular, there were stories about pregnant women being especially vulnerable to severe Covid. Those stories probably got a lot more attention in blue states and instilled more fear accordingly (rightly or wrongly).
    - stn8188 3y ago
      This sounds like a very reasonable explanation. For fun, I explained the gist of the article to my wife and asked for her take. She attributes the rise in red states to "happy couples getting to spend more time together". We're a good example of that, our babies #4 and #5 were both born during the pandemic. In all honesty, I was WFH before covid but the time I get to spend with my family as a result is such a blessing. It's also no joke how much the healthcare "environment" changed... I make a point to go to every single prenatal and pediatric appointment. The only ultrasound I ever missed was due to hospital rules disallowing our children from accompanying us.
  - ggm 3y ago
    You're right that this can't explain the drop. It can only explain the relative rise in red, arguably, if they had less access to unplanned short term expedient contraception, as a routine form of contraception. You can't get the packet of condoms from the machine in the hotel lobby if you aren't in the hotel.
- hattmall 3y ago
  IMO it's nothing like that. There's no significant difference in availability of birth control in red vs blue states. It's that in red states the pandemic was an extended party and vacation with everyone having extra money. No entertainment places closed. There was no overall feeling of anxiety. Bars, Restaurants, vacation spots were more packed than ever. Young people partied, worked from home and got thousands and thousands of dollars in free money. Pretty much everyone I know that was in the category of "probably going to have kids at some point" went ahead and had kids. My close friends from high school to college in red states span a range of about 8 years and almost all had kids. All planned and on purpose because it really just felt like an ideal time. It was also a great hospital experience! No guests, labor and delivery was over staffed. Hospital, other than the barrier separated COVID area was completely empty. On the other hand I have friends in blue states and areas that literally stayed home for months. Some people didn't even go out to eat for a year. Schools were also closed for over a year in some blue states. Red States just had some schools close for like 2 months.
  - wrp 3y ago
    I don't know to what extent it explains the birth rate, but I can testify to the difference in public mood. I got around rural Red areas in 2020 and people in general seemed to be completely ignoring the pandemic. In fact, a lot of folks I dealt with were having a jolly time because their businesses were booming. In contrast, it would be the complete opposite when I hit a Blue pocket -- streets deserted, shops closed, people eyeing you warily in case you got too close.

ggm 3y ago

It's careful not to make strong attribution to why. My gut feel from a great distance in time and place and income, is that without simple direct access to over the counter contraception close to time, and after the event, poorer economies see higher rates of unplanned pregnancy. The higher income states see higher rates of managed contraception longterm. So purely on income and access, under covid I could see people who relied on "just in time" contraception on a case-by-case "get lucky" basis had higher rates of birth than people who were achieving same/similar rates of contraception but from a planned longterm basis. I assume the levels of boredom in each economic/voter set are roughly equal. Kids be kids, no matter what.

turrican 3y ago
I don’t believe that this would explain the bust in blue states. If they were already on birth control pre-pandemic, shouldn’t their birth rates have stayed level or even gone slightly up with all the free time stuck at home? Instead they went down.
- abeppu 3y ago
  But if you were in a blue state, taking the first lock-down really seriously, were you less likely to want to decide that that now was a good time to try to have a kid, when the world is in crisis and the hospitals might be scary to go to? Would you feel less like having sex even if you have a partner b/c you've both been in the house together for way too much time? Or because you're stressed from the world being upside-down? Or if you already had a child, were you more exhausted from trying to do both childcare and WFH? Would you be less likely to have a whirlwind encounter with a new partner that turns into an unexpected pregnancy b/c you're sheltering in place? I'm guessing we don't have data on any of these but I think the baby bust is entirely understandable if you're in an environment that's taking a global pandemic really seriously.
  - BadCookie 3y ago
    In particular, there were stories about pregnant women being especially vulnerable to severe Covid. Those stories probably got a lot more attention in blue states and instilled more fear accordingly (rightly or wrongly).
  - stn8188 3y ago
    This sounds like a very reasonable explanation. For fun, I explained the gist of the article to my wife and asked for her take. She attributes the rise in red states to "happy couples getting to spend more time together". We're a good example of that, our babies #4 and #5 were both born during the pandemic. In all honesty, I was WFH before covid but the time I get to spend with my family as a result is such a blessing. It's also no joke how much the healthcare "environment" changed... I make a point to go to every single prenatal and pediatric appointment. The only ultrasound I ever missed was due to hospital rules disallowing our children from accompanying us.
- ggm 3y ago
  You're right that this can't explain the drop. It can only explain the relative rise in red, arguably, if they had less access to unplanned short term expedient contraception, as a routine form of contraception. You can't get the packet of condoms from the machine in the hotel lobby if you aren't in the hotel.
hattmall 3y ago
IMO it's nothing like that. There's no significant difference in availability of birth control in red vs blue states. It's that in red states the pandemic was an extended party and vacation with everyone having extra money. No entertainment places closed. There was no overall feeling of anxiety. Bars, Restaurants, vacation spots were more packed than ever. Young people partied, worked from home and got thousands and thousands of dollars in free money. Pretty much everyone I know that was in the category of "probably going to have kids at some point" went ahead and had kids. My close friends from high school to college in red states span a range of about 8 years and almost all had kids. All planned and on purpose because it really just felt like an ideal time. It was also a great hospital experience! No guests, labor and delivery was over staffed. Hospital, other than the barrier separated COVID area was completely empty. On the other hand I have friends in blue states and areas that literally stayed home for months. Some people didn't even go out to eat for a year. Schools were also closed for over a year in some blue states. Red States just had some schools close for like 2 months.
- wrp 3y ago
  I don't know to what extent it explains the birth rate, but I can testify to the difference in public mood. I got around rural Red areas in 2020 and people in general seemed to be completely ignoring the pandemic. In fact, a lot of folks I dealt with were having a jolly time because their businesses were booming. In contrast, it would be the complete opposite when I hit a Blue pocket -- streets deserted, shops closed, people eyeing you warily in case you got too close.