4 ms·

Sounds like a great theory, TBH! Seems like you can make a lot of money that way, not sure why I should view it as a bad thing.

vikramkr 3y ago
Why does it sounds like you can make a lot of money that way? Bring reliant on someone else being willing to pay more on the basis that they'll find someone else later to pay even more doesn't create a stable foundation
gemstones 3y ago
It really depends on the timescale, right? There are a couple of extremes. One extreme: At some point far in the future, perhaps dollars aren't a thing anymore - the last people holding dollars are the greater fool. (Note I still hold dollars and ETFs and conventionally safe investments, that's not a knock on the dollar.) But over a long enough timespan, there's a greater fool. There are just a lot of people along the way who got a lot of value out of dollars. Another extreme: There are things like beanie babies where there is a very short amount of time to find a buyer, and the last one to buy the beanie baby before the fad stops is the greater fool. This is over a much shorter timescale, and there are only a few people who get a lot of value out of beanie babies. Crypto is somewhere in between. I think the black market use case means crypto is closer to the dollar side of the spectrum than the beanie baby side of the spectrum. I think there's a decent chance there is always a greater fool in decades, well long enough for me to get out while I've gotten value out of it.
EdwardDiego 3y ago
Sucks when you're the last and greatest fool though.
- gemstones 3y ago
  For sure, but I'm not sure how that's any different from any other particularly risky investment. If you're not comfortable with that risk, put your savings in T-Bills.
  - polygamous_bat 3y ago
    That sounds like a slippery slope fallacy: "if you are not comfortable with a crazy amount of risk, buy the safest thing in existence." Why? What happened to everything in between?
  - EdwardDiego 3y ago
    Most risky investments don't "look deep into your heart and assign you risk based on the order in which you joined".

vikramkr 3y ago

Why does it sounds like you can make a lot of money that way? Bring reliant on someone else being willing to pay more on the basis that they'll find someone else later to pay even more doesn't create a stable foundation

gemstones 3y ago

It really depends on the timescale, right? There are a couple of extremes. One extreme: At some point far in the future, perhaps dollars aren't a thing anymore - the last people holding dollars are the greater fool. (Note I still hold dollars and ETFs and conventionally safe investments, that's not a knock on the dollar.) But over a long enough timespan, there's a greater fool. There are just a lot of people along the way who got a lot of value out of dollars. Another extreme: There are things like beanie babies where there is a very short amount of time to find a buyer, and the last one to buy the beanie baby before the fad stops is the greater fool. This is over a much shorter timescale, and there are only a few people who get a lot of value out of beanie babies. Crypto is somewhere in between. I think the black market use case means crypto is closer to the dollar side of the spectrum than the beanie baby side of the spectrum. I think there's a decent chance there is always a greater fool in decades, well long enough for me to get out while I've gotten value out of it.

EdwardDiego 3y ago

Sucks when you're the last and greatest fool though.

gemstones 3y ago
For sure, but I'm not sure how that's any different from any other particularly risky investment. If you're not comfortable with that risk, put your savings in T-Bills.
- polygamous_bat 3y ago
  That sounds like a slippery slope fallacy: "if you are not comfortable with a crazy amount of risk, buy the safest thing in existence." Why? What happened to everything in between?
- EdwardDiego 3y ago
  Most risky investments don't "look deep into your heart and assign you risk based on the order in which you joined".