4 ms·

I know it was rediculous! Biden was leading Texas and then all of the sudden we're supposed to expect a surge of red votes and now Trump carried the state? But

I know it was rediculous! Biden was leading Texas and then all of the sudden we're supposed to expect a surge of red votes and now Trump carried the state? But in all seriousness. 1) "Decades" is 5 elections which is a sample size of garbage. 2) The election results haven't been actually reported on the same day for a long time. Absentee ballots aren't countable until after Election day in many states making it trivial to demonstrate that they haven't been counted until the next day meaning you can't have reported the exact results on the first night. Now, news media have been making predictions on who is going to win the election and they did refrain from doing that. But one big thing to remember is that states where Republicans determined the election process such as Arizona did not even count 100% of their ballots by Nov 12 (9 days after the 3rd, aka Election Day).

listenallyall 3y ago
[flagged]
- lesuorac 3y ago
  > Keep gaslighting, in all seriousness. You're the one thats willfully omitting the fact that it was well explained to the electorate _ahead_ of Election Day. The script was literally published in the news prior to november [1]. There will be a "Red Mirage" as Republicans outvote Democrats in in-person voting. Then the next day as states are allowed to count absentee ballots that lead will be eroded (and sometimes overturned). > Your second point is moot -- while election counts are not finalized and certified on election night It isn't though. This is how Florida got called for Gore. The result wasn't actually finalized when the call was made. The methods are exactly the same in 2020 as before; it's just when I've got 100 outstanding absentee ballots and I have 150 in-person votes for Trump and 140 for Biden there's no confidence in a claim that either will win. The other main issue is that the races were called typically with exit polling. Only 40% of the electorate voted not on election day for 2016 and that grew to 70% in 2020. Exit polling is not reliable when you're taking a biased sample of 1/3 of the population. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-mirage-explainer/explainer-red-mirage-blue-mirage-beware-of-early-u-s-election-wins-idUSKBN2771CL https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-mirage-expla...
- tptacek 3y ago
  This is false. 2004 wasn't called for Bush on election night; it was called the next day. Also: leave stuff like "keep gaslighting" out of your comments here.
  - listenallyall 3y ago
    What lesuorac did -- redefine the word "decades" in my comment to include just 5 elections (pretending that presidential races weren't "called" on election night back in the 1960's and earlier) -- is an example of that unnamed phenomenon. Doing it is ok, calling it out isn't? "distorting reality and forcing them to question their own judgment" https://www.newportinstitute.com/resources/mental-health/what_is_gaslighting_abuse/#:~:text=Gaslighting%20is%20a%20form%20of,their%20own%20judgment%20and%20intuition https://www.newportinstitute.com/resources/mental-health/wha....
    - tptacek 3y ago
      No, it's not OK. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
      - listenallyall 3y ago
        Again, I don't see you reprimanding lesuorac, who committed the initial violation: Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith. He deliberately reduced "decades" to 5 elections for the express purpose of weakening the argument and making it easier to criticize ("sample size of garbage").
        tptacek 3y ago
        I'm just a random commenter responding to a false statement you made that happened, also, to violate a clear guideline we have. I'm not an admin. I'm not reprimanding anybody.

listenallyall 3y ago

[flagged]

lesuorac 3y ago
> Keep gaslighting, in all seriousness. You're the one thats willfully omitting the fact that it was well explained to the electorate _ahead_ of Election Day. The script was literally published in the news prior to november [1]. There will be a "Red Mirage" as Republicans outvote Democrats in in-person voting. Then the next day as states are allowed to count absentee ballots that lead will be eroded (and sometimes overturned). > Your second point is moot -- while election counts are not finalized and certified on election night It isn't though. This is how Florida got called for Gore. The result wasn't actually finalized when the call was made. The methods are exactly the same in 2020 as before; it's just when I've got 100 outstanding absentee ballots and I have 150 in-person votes for Trump and 140 for Biden there's no confidence in a claim that either will win. The other main issue is that the races were called typically with exit polling. Only 40% of the electorate voted not on election day for 2016 and that grew to 70% in 2020. Exit polling is not reliable when you're taking a biased sample of 1/3 of the population. [1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-mirage-explainer/explainer-red-mirage-blue-mirage-beware-of-early-u-s-election-wins-idUSKBN2771CL https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-mirage-expla...
tptacek 3y ago
This is false. 2004 wasn't called for Bush on election night; it was called the next day. Also: leave stuff like "keep gaslighting" out of your comments here.
- listenallyall 3y ago
  What lesuorac did -- redefine the word "decades" in my comment to include just 5 elections (pretending that presidential races weren't "called" on election night back in the 1960's and earlier) -- is an example of that unnamed phenomenon. Doing it is ok, calling it out isn't? "distorting reality and forcing them to question their own judgment" https://www.newportinstitute.com/resources/mental-health/what_is_gaslighting_abuse/#:~:text=Gaslighting%20is%20a%20form%20of,their%20own%20judgment%20and%20intuition https://www.newportinstitute.com/resources/mental-health/wha....
  - tptacek 3y ago
    No, it's not OK. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
    - listenallyall 3y ago
      Again, I don't see you reprimanding lesuorac, who committed the initial violation: Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith. He deliberately reduced "decades" to 5 elections for the express purpose of weakening the argument and making it easier to criticize ("sample size of garbage").
      - tptacek 3y ago
        I'm just a random commenter responding to a false statement you made that happened, also, to violate a clear guideline we have. I'm not an admin. I'm not reprimanding anybody.