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You're building a straw man argument against the pro-crypto side though. Not everyone there is a crypto0libertarian anrarcho-capitalist. There are a lot of peo

You're building a straw man argument against the pro-crypto side though. Not everyone there is a crypto0libertarian anrarcho-capitalist. There are a lot of people who are optimistic about the technology who also welcome regulation on the CEX side. I feel like most people in the pro-crypto camp also acknowledge that several of the ancillary components that make up the crypto ecosystem (such as wallet technology) are really problematic from a UX standpoint -- but also that they are fixable. That said, the whole global-reserve currency thing might be les of a straw man, as it correctly describes the views of a lot of Bitcoin maxis (who are delusional IMO). But we're talking about a broad technology with other use cases, and isn't accurate for everyone.

kkielhofner 3y ago
> but also that they are fixable Yet after 14 years they don't seem to ever actually get fixed - from just this week[0]. The fundamentals of crypto - irreversible, be your own bank, no margin of error, medieval castle level security practices/requirements, etc go against fundamental human nature. We forget things. We make mistakes. We're not capable of securing financial resources against an entire internet full of marauding bandits. How many CC charges are disputed daily? How many password resets do you think Bank of America does daily? Answer is: staggering numbers. Post-FTX many "crypto users" (read: have an account on a CEX) actually interacted with blockchain for the first time and transferred crypto to a wallet. Ledger wallet sales exploded. It didn't take long for them to deal with such tremendous incoming of people losing access, forgetting seeds, etc to implement a backup mechanism. It didn't go well[1]. [0] - https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/atomic-wallet-hacks-lead-to-over-35-million-in-crypto-stolen/ https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/atomic-wallet... [1] - https://decrypt.co/140317/ledger-crypto-wallet-under-fire-over-seed-phrase-recovery-service https://decrypt.co/140317/ledger-crypto-wallet-under-fire-ov...
- scyclow 3y ago
  True, Bitcoin has been around for about 14 years, but we're only a couple years into the current wave of consumer hardware wallets. And from a smart contract standpoint we're still seeing innovative for different ways to control the flow of assets. I don't think that the future of blockchain transactions necessarily needs to involve consumers interacting with the technology on such a low level. It's seems like there's plenty of room to build abstractions on top of it... which I'm sure the purists wouldn't like. But ultimately, I'd give it a few years to see what happens before writing it off.
  - kkielhofner 3y ago
    I don't dismiss it completely - for example, I have many friends who fled countries who would've been happy to be able to leave with something other than the clothes on their back. However, this is (fortunately) a very niche use case. 14 years is a very long time. I've been using Linux on the desktop since 1997. For probably 10 years there people were talking about it being "the year of the Linux desktop". 25 years later the Linux desktop has roughly 3% market share - it was extremely fringe in 1997 but it's still very fringe now. No reasonable person thinks it will ever materialize (let's call that cracking double digits) at this point. If it weren't for the pumpers, shills, bag holders, etc driven by greed (often desperation) and direct financial incentive the unsuitability of crypto for the general population would be as widely and universally agreed upon by now. The crypto ecosystem has also had the benefit of equating to "get rich quick" for many people along with investors, ICOs, etc pouring at least tens of billions of dollars into the ecosystem. Yet one look at a block explorer for any chain tells you very quickly that usage is abysmal. If you look at the resources poured into the space and real on chain transaction data crypto likely has the highest user acquisition cost of all time. I don't think it will ever die but if anything resembling widespread adoption hasn't happened by now it almost certainly isn't ever going to and this was my point: it's impossible to reach widespread adoption when the fundamental properties go against the most well established truths of humanity, society, and culture.
    - nostrademons 3y ago
      14 years in finance is tiny. The first modern corporations were formed in the 11th century. It took 500+ years to go from there to the British East India Company. It took a further 200 years to get the London and New York Stock Exchanges, another 100 years to get the American Exchange (formerly the "curb market", broker/dealers who had been kicked out of the NYSE), and then another 70 to get NASDAQ. I don't think we'll see widespread adoption of crypto this generation. It may be very important by the time my kids are retired, though. There are going to be many, many speculative bubbles and panics in the meantime. It took 200 years to go from the British East India Company to the London Stock Exchange, but there were 3 financial panics (Kipper Und Wipper, Tulip Mania, and the General Crisis of 1640) in just the 22 years between 1618 and 1640.

kkielhofner 3y ago

> but also that they are fixable Yet after 14 years they don't seem to ever actually get fixed - from just this week[0]. The fundamentals of crypto - irreversible, be your own bank, no margin of error, medieval castle level security practices/requirements, etc go against fundamental human nature. We forget things. We make mistakes. We're not capable of securing financial resources against an entire internet full of marauding bandits. How many CC charges are disputed daily? How many password resets do you think Bank of America does daily? Answer is: staggering numbers. Post-FTX many "crypto users" (read: have an account on a CEX) actually interacted with blockchain for the first time and transferred crypto to a wallet. Ledger wallet sales exploded. It didn't take long for them to deal with such tremendous incoming of people losing access, forgetting seeds, etc to implement a backup mechanism. It didn't go well[1]. [0] - https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/atomic-wallet-hacks-lead-to-over-35-million-in-crypto-stolen/ https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/atomic-wallet... [1] - https://decrypt.co/140317/ledger-crypto-wallet-under-fire-over-seed-phrase-recovery-service https://decrypt.co/140317/ledger-crypto-wallet-under-fire-ov...

scyclow 3y ago
True, Bitcoin has been around for about 14 years, but we're only a couple years into the current wave of consumer hardware wallets. And from a smart contract standpoint we're still seeing innovative for different ways to control the flow of assets. I don't think that the future of blockchain transactions necessarily needs to involve consumers interacting with the technology on such a low level. It's seems like there's plenty of room to build abstractions on top of it... which I'm sure the purists wouldn't like. But ultimately, I'd give it a few years to see what happens before writing it off.
- kkielhofner 3y ago
  I don't dismiss it completely - for example, I have many friends who fled countries who would've been happy to be able to leave with something other than the clothes on their back. However, this is (fortunately) a very niche use case. 14 years is a very long time. I've been using Linux on the desktop since 1997. For probably 10 years there people were talking about it being "the year of the Linux desktop". 25 years later the Linux desktop has roughly 3% market share - it was extremely fringe in 1997 but it's still very fringe now. No reasonable person thinks it will ever materialize (let's call that cracking double digits) at this point. If it weren't for the pumpers, shills, bag holders, etc driven by greed (often desperation) and direct financial incentive the unsuitability of crypto for the general population would be as widely and universally agreed upon by now. The crypto ecosystem has also had the benefit of equating to "get rich quick" for many people along with investors, ICOs, etc pouring at least tens of billions of dollars into the ecosystem. Yet one look at a block explorer for any chain tells you very quickly that usage is abysmal. If you look at the resources poured into the space and real on chain transaction data crypto likely has the highest user acquisition cost of all time. I don't think it will ever die but if anything resembling widespread adoption hasn't happened by now it almost certainly isn't ever going to and this was my point: it's impossible to reach widespread adoption when the fundamental properties go against the most well established truths of humanity, society, and culture.
  - nostrademons 3y ago
    14 years in finance is tiny. The first modern corporations were formed in the 11th century. It took 500+ years to go from there to the British East India Company. It took a further 200 years to get the London and New York Stock Exchanges, another 100 years to get the American Exchange (formerly the "curb market", broker/dealers who had been kicked out of the NYSE), and then another 70 to get NASDAQ. I don't think we'll see widespread adoption of crypto this generation. It may be very important by the time my kids are retired, though. There are going to be many, many speculative bubbles and panics in the meantime. It took 200 years to go from the British East India Company to the London Stock Exchange, but there were 3 financial panics (Kipper Und Wipper, Tulip Mania, and the General Crisis of 1640) in just the 22 years between 1618 and 1640.