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I mean more the quality than the quantity. There's all sorts of hangups with things like ATACMS. All I'm saying is that I find this gradual escalation very un

I mean more the quality than the quantity. There's all sorts of hangups with things like ATACMS. All I'm saying is that I find this gradual escalation very unpleasant. If we side with Ukraine then let's end this as quickly and decisively as possible. Stretching this out to years of gradual escalation where during a given month we decide "Okay, maybe Ukraine now can have HIMARS, or better tanks, or better missiles" seems like the worst way to do things. I think long term the current strategy means more money, more dead people, less clear politics and worse PR.

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chmod600 3y ago
Gradual escalation could be good in the sense that there's no clear prompt for nuclear war.
- dale_glass 3y ago
  Yeah, I don't buy that. Part because I don't think Putin is suicidal, or that stupid. He was counting on reaping benefits from this. Nuclear doesn't lead to any kind of benefit. But besides that there are plenty weapons that aren't all that fancy and would have made a huge difference if they were there sooner. Think about the mess HIMARS would have made of that tank column stuck on the way to Kyiv.
  - agloe_dreams 3y ago
    > Part because I don't think Putin is suicidal, or that stupid. I would have agreed with this at the start of the war..but I have no idea what gain he can ever get here short of riding it out to 2025 and hoping that a change in politics in America will change the game for him. Even then, I would not be shocked to see the EU step up in their place. If Russia will overrun Ukraine, they will overrun anyone. They are not gaining meaningful ground and the west is further uniting; NATO is at their doorstop in Finland now, a massive failure, any surrender in Ukraine ends with Ukraine joining NATO. The EU needs Russia to know that the buck stops there. Rumors state Putin is surrounded by yes men and terrified. Media keeps hearing reports of cancer; he may be dying already. He has portrayed himself as brute and strong, gaining ground still has his legacy trashed for the cost, then goes out on that memory. Might I add that nobody actually knows his mental state. I would not be shocked to see a WMD outcome. There are rumors of chemical weapons being prepped. The only way Russia changes the tides is to cut Ukraine off at the top with Zelenskyy, there's only two ways they bring the fight to Kyiv.
    - datavirtue 3y ago
      Agreed. Their blue lives matter propaganda campaign was wildly successful.
ceejayoz 3y ago
> All I'm saying is that I find this gradual escalation very unpleasant. It seems to be highly effective at not giving Putin anything big enough to latch upon as a genuine red-line escalation.
rainworld 3y ago
If we side with Ukraine then let's end this as quickly and decisively as possible. And how exactly are you going to achieve that? The thing about war is that you can’t just decide to win, you actually have to do it. Stretching this out to years of gradual escalation This gradual escalation is at least as much to the “benefit” of Western audiences as it is to Russia. Just imagine telling people (Germans in particular) about German tanks in Ukraine against Russia at the beginning of 2022… Another psyop targeting Western audiences: the notion that Russia is losing[0], can’t or won’t retaliate, even that its strategic nuclear weapons won’t work, and in any case “MAD” will protect us. All these things are very wrong, no matter how mad that makes people here and elsewhere. [0]: Open your favourite satellite image service, visit an Ukrainian city, count the fresh graves, do the math. Kharkov alone easily has 13k KIAs buried or whatever’s the official count. Meanwhile: https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/04/14/bbc-news-russian-and-mediazona-confirm-over-20000-russian-soldiers-dead-in-ukraine-war-en-news https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/04/14/bbc-news-russian... I‘d say it’s something like 50k total but point is: not even close to what Ukraine has lost. And even if it were, that’s not how you win an existential conflict against a country five times your size. Finally, I don’t agree with everything but here‘s Mearsheimer with a good overview of the situation: https://youtu.be/v-rHBRwdql8?t=385 https://youtu.be/v-rHBRwdql8?t=385
- notahacker 3y ago
  Nice of the Russians to support the "Western psyop" by loudly infighting over the losses suffered and struggles to hold the only bit of territory they've managed to capture since their latest conscription waves, following the mass retreats of the autumn, presumably because their numerical advantage left them without any Ukranians to shoot at.
  - rainworld 3y ago
    Nice of the Russians to support the "Western psyop" Yes, but unironically. Decisions Were Made after the US and UK attacked (via Ukraine but fooling nobody) sites of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces at the beginning of December last year.[0][1] They got an immediate answer[2], and a couple more such messages later on, but what the Russians would have realized then (if not earlier) is that you most likely cannot reason with the ruling elites of the dying empire and its rabid little attack Beagle. Let’s hope they find a way still. following the mass retreats of the autumn Every drug peddler knows: Getting high on your own supply is the most dangerous thing. numerical advantage left them without any Ukranians to shoot at. Pretty bad taste, in light of the footage coming in from Zaporozhye rn. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyagilevo_and_Engels_air_bases_attacks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyagilevo_and_Engels_air_bases... [1]: Russia’s nuclear doctrine allows a nuclear response in such a case, for good reason. [2]: Just lol if you think this was an accident: https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/05/22/b-2-stealth-bombers-flying-again-air-force-still-mum-reason-grounding.html https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/05/22/b-2-stealth-b...
bryanlarsen 3y ago
Whether or not you think gradual escalation prevented nuclear escalation, it's pretty much done now. Given the US policy of not announcing shipments until they've been used in the field, I bet that ATACMS is currently en route to Ukraine. Storm Shadow and ATACMS are roughly equivalent and they already have Storm Shadow. F-16 and ATACMS were pretty much the last things on the Ukraine wish list, and they're now (probably) getting both.
- eastern 3y ago
  America's war goal is war. If Ukraine 'won' quickly, the next war may not be easy to find quickly. Better for everyone to keep this one going as long as possible.
  - datavirtue 3y ago
    Not sure why this was down voted. The incentives for our politicians to create wars are very strong. They can convince themselves and others of the verocity of their reasons but war is a benefit to them. All they have to do is signal a desire for conflict (or a response to conflict) and the campaign dollars pour in.

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chmod600 3y ago

Gradual escalation could be good in the sense that there's no clear prompt for nuclear war.

dale_glass 3y ago
Yeah, I don't buy that. Part because I don't think Putin is suicidal, or that stupid. He was counting on reaping benefits from this. Nuclear doesn't lead to any kind of benefit. But besides that there are plenty weapons that aren't all that fancy and would have made a huge difference if they were there sooner. Think about the mess HIMARS would have made of that tank column stuck on the way to Kyiv.
- agloe_dreams 3y ago
  > Part because I don't think Putin is suicidal, or that stupid. I would have agreed with this at the start of the war..but I have no idea what gain he can ever get here short of riding it out to 2025 and hoping that a change in politics in America will change the game for him. Even then, I would not be shocked to see the EU step up in their place. If Russia will overrun Ukraine, they will overrun anyone. They are not gaining meaningful ground and the west is further uniting; NATO is at their doorstop in Finland now, a massive failure, any surrender in Ukraine ends with Ukraine joining NATO. The EU needs Russia to know that the buck stops there. Rumors state Putin is surrounded by yes men and terrified. Media keeps hearing reports of cancer; he may be dying already. He has portrayed himself as brute and strong, gaining ground still has his legacy trashed for the cost, then goes out on that memory. Might I add that nobody actually knows his mental state. I would not be shocked to see a WMD outcome. There are rumors of chemical weapons being prepped. The only way Russia changes the tides is to cut Ukraine off at the top with Zelenskyy, there's only two ways they bring the fight to Kyiv.
  - datavirtue 3y ago
    Agreed. Their blue lives matter propaganda campaign was wildly successful.

ceejayoz 3y ago

> All I'm saying is that I find this gradual escalation very unpleasant. It seems to be highly effective at not giving Putin anything big enough to latch upon as a genuine red-line escalation.

rainworld 3y ago

If we side with Ukraine then let's end this as quickly and decisively as possible. And how exactly are you going to achieve that? The thing about war is that you can’t just decide to win, you actually have to do it. Stretching this out to years of gradual escalation This gradual escalation is at least as much to the “benefit” of Western audiences as it is to Russia. Just imagine telling people (Germans in particular) about German tanks in Ukraine against Russia at the beginning of 2022… Another psyop targeting Western audiences: the notion that Russia is losing[0], can’t or won’t retaliate, even that its strategic nuclear weapons won’t work, and in any case “MAD” will protect us. All these things are very wrong, no matter how mad that makes people here and elsewhere. [0]: Open your favourite satellite image service, visit an Ukrainian city, count the fresh graves, do the math. Kharkov alone easily has 13k KIAs buried or whatever’s the official count. Meanwhile: https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/04/14/bbc-news-russian-and-mediazona-confirm-over-20000-russian-soldiers-dead-in-ukraine-war-en-news https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/04/14/bbc-news-russian... I‘d say it’s something like 50k total but point is: not even close to what Ukraine has lost. And even if it were, that’s not how you win an existential conflict against a country five times your size. Finally, I don’t agree with everything but here‘s Mearsheimer with a good overview of the situation: https://youtu.be/v-rHBRwdql8?t=385 https://youtu.be/v-rHBRwdql8?t=385

notahacker 3y ago
Nice of the Russians to support the "Western psyop" by loudly infighting over the losses suffered and struggles to hold the only bit of territory they've managed to capture since their latest conscription waves, following the mass retreats of the autumn, presumably because their numerical advantage left them without any Ukranians to shoot at.
- rainworld 3y ago
  Nice of the Russians to support the "Western psyop" Yes, but unironically. Decisions Were Made after the US and UK attacked (via Ukraine but fooling nobody) sites of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces at the beginning of December last year.[0][1] They got an immediate answer[2], and a couple more such messages later on, but what the Russians would have realized then (if not earlier) is that you most likely cannot reason with the ruling elites of the dying empire and its rabid little attack Beagle. Let’s hope they find a way still. following the mass retreats of the autumn Every drug peddler knows: Getting high on your own supply is the most dangerous thing. numerical advantage left them without any Ukranians to shoot at. Pretty bad taste, in light of the footage coming in from Zaporozhye rn. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyagilevo_and_Engels_air_bases_attacks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyagilevo_and_Engels_air_bases... [1]: Russia’s nuclear doctrine allows a nuclear response in such a case, for good reason. [2]: Just lol if you think this was an accident: https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/05/22/b-2-stealth-bombers-flying-again-air-force-still-mum-reason-grounding.html https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/05/22/b-2-stealth-b...

bryanlarsen 3y ago

Whether or not you think gradual escalation prevented nuclear escalation, it's pretty much done now. Given the US policy of not announcing shipments until they've been used in the field, I bet that ATACMS is currently en route to Ukraine. Storm Shadow and ATACMS are roughly equivalent and they already have Storm Shadow. F-16 and ATACMS were pretty much the last things on the Ukraine wish list, and they're now (probably) getting both.

eastern 3y ago
America's war goal is war. If Ukraine 'won' quickly, the next war may not be easy to find quickly. Better for everyone to keep this one going as long as possible.
- datavirtue 3y ago
  Not sure why this was down voted. The incentives for our politicians to create wars are very strong. They can convince themselves and others of the verocity of their reasons but war is a benefit to them. All they have to do is signal a desire for conflict (or a response to conflict) and the campaign dollars pour in.