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> Since the Brexit vote and the subsequent collapse of the pound Is there any kind of agreed definition of "collapse"? Currencies rise, currencies fall. Th

> Since the Brexit vote and the subsequent collapse of the pound Is there any kind of agreed definition of "collapse"? Currencies rise, currencies fall. The GBPEUR rate today (1.15) appears to be almost exactly the same as it was in early July 2013, almost ten whole years ago.

nmcfarl 3y ago
The GBP USD rate went from 1.6245 on Jan 1 2013 to 1.25 today - which is a drop. Perhaps this is what is being focused on. But your comment is dead on - this doesn’t feel like a collapse it feels like currency fluctuations, at least from the outside.
- purpleflame1257 3y ago
  Some amount of that is also due to the strength of the USD. The Euro was trading higher then as well.
  - twixfel 3y ago
    That came after the brexit vote. We are talking about the crash in the value after the Brexit vote.
    - purpleflame1257 3y ago
      The ancestor comments was giving the GBP/USD rate in 2013. At that time the Euro was worth about 1.30. Now it is about 1.05 My claim is therefore that the "collapse" in the value of the pound is actually instead a rise in the value of the dollar.
    - philwelch 3y ago
      I think the better question is, why are we talking about a short term fluctuation that happened years ago and has since corrected itself?
NeoTar 3y ago
Looking immediately before the referendum vote and afterwards, the pound fell from 1.3039 to 1.1639 over two weeks - a loss of ten percent which can pretty much directly be attributed to the vote. When this article was written in January 2017, the pound was at about 1.15, which would have been down from 1.35 a year before - a loss of around 15 percent. Looking over a broader time-range, before the financial crisis in 2008, the pound was roughly stable at around 1.45 EUR. This fell during the recession years, but was reaching 1.40 levels again in 2015. Since the referendum it has consistently been between roughly 1.20 and 1.10. So, in summary - there was a fall (not sure I'd necessarily say a collapse) in the value of the pound as a direct response to the Brexit referendum. However the pound had been low (c. 1.15) in value since 2007, apart from a bump in mid-2014 to mid-2016
- logifail 3y ago
  > Looking immediately before the referendum vote and afterwards Umm, Cameron announced that he would propose to hold a referendum on EU membership if his party won the next general election way back in January 2013 [0] The GBPEUR midrate at the end of that month was 1.167 [1] Doesn't look quite as much of a story if one were to write about the British pound "plunging" from 1.167 when the possibility of a Brexit was first mentioned to, umm, 1.15 the day after the vote, does it? BTW, I fully appreciate that the immediate movement due to the outcome of the vote was large, but there were a lot of expectations baked in, Cameron also promptly resigned after "losing" the vote, and political shocks like those aren't necessarily what you look for if you're hoping for a strong currency! [0] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/jan/23/david-cameron-eu-speech-referendum https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/jan/23/david-camer... [1] https://www.xe.com/currencytables/?from=GBP&date=2013-01-31 https://www.xe.com/currencytables/?from=GBP&date=2013-01-31
Lastodon 3y ago
Not exactly a collapse, and a fall was always going to be the case; Brussels was always going to absolutely murder the first country to leave, as an example to the other states.
LatteLazy 3y ago
Are you missing a figure my friend? The lowest rate I see in July 2013 is 1.48 (NOT 1.148). Todays rate is 1.24. Down 17%? The usual rate was somewhere around 1.6 pre-Brexit, down ~25%. I think that's a bigger shift than ever seen outside of (other) catastrophes... https://www.dailyfx.com/gbp-usd https://www.dailyfx.com/gbp-usd
- logifail 3y ago
  > Are you missing a figure my friend? We're talking about two different currency pairs, I quoted GBP EUR rates, you're referencing GBP USD rates... ?

nmcfarl 3y ago

The GBP USD rate went from 1.6245 on Jan 1 2013 to 1.25 today - which is a drop. Perhaps this is what is being focused on. But your comment is dead on - this doesn’t feel like a collapse it feels like currency fluctuations, at least from the outside.

purpleflame1257 3y ago
Some amount of that is also due to the strength of the USD. The Euro was trading higher then as well.
- twixfel 3y ago
  That came after the brexit vote. We are talking about the crash in the value after the Brexit vote.
  - purpleflame1257 3y ago
    The ancestor comments was giving the GBP/USD rate in 2013. At that time the Euro was worth about 1.30. Now it is about 1.05 My claim is therefore that the "collapse" in the value of the pound is actually instead a rise in the value of the dollar.
  - philwelch 3y ago
    I think the better question is, why are we talking about a short term fluctuation that happened years ago and has since corrected itself?

NeoTar 3y ago

Looking immediately before the referendum vote and afterwards, the pound fell from 1.3039 to 1.1639 over two weeks - a loss of ten percent which can pretty much directly be attributed to the vote. When this article was written in January 2017, the pound was at about 1.15, which would have been down from 1.35 a year before - a loss of around 15 percent. Looking over a broader time-range, before the financial crisis in 2008, the pound was roughly stable at around 1.45 EUR. This fell during the recession years, but was reaching 1.40 levels again in 2015. Since the referendum it has consistently been between roughly 1.20 and 1.10. So, in summary - there was a fall (not sure I'd necessarily say a collapse) in the value of the pound as a direct response to the Brexit referendum. However the pound had been low (c. 1.15) in value since 2007, apart from a bump in mid-2014 to mid-2016

logifail 3y ago
> Looking immediately before the referendum vote and afterwards Umm, Cameron announced that he would propose to hold a referendum on EU membership if his party won the next general election way back in January 2013 [0] The GBPEUR midrate at the end of that month was 1.167 [1] Doesn't look quite as much of a story if one were to write about the British pound "plunging" from 1.167 when the possibility of a Brexit was first mentioned to, umm, 1.15 the day after the vote, does it? BTW, I fully appreciate that the immediate movement due to the outcome of the vote was large, but there were a lot of expectations baked in, Cameron also promptly resigned after "losing" the vote, and political shocks like those aren't necessarily what you look for if you're hoping for a strong currency! [0] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/jan/23/david-cameron-eu-speech-referendum https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/jan/23/david-camer... [1] https://www.xe.com/currencytables/?from=GBP&date=2013-01-31 https://www.xe.com/currencytables/?from=GBP&date=2013-01-31

Lastodon 3y ago

Not exactly a collapse, and a fall was always going to be the case; Brussels was always going to absolutely murder the first country to leave, as an example to the other states.

LatteLazy 3y ago

Are you missing a figure my friend? The lowest rate I see in July 2013 is 1.48 (NOT 1.148). Todays rate is 1.24. Down 17%? The usual rate was somewhere around 1.6 pre-Brexit, down ~25%. I think that's a bigger shift than ever seen outside of (other) catastrophes... https://www.dailyfx.com/gbp-usd https://www.dailyfx.com/gbp-usd

logifail 3y ago
> Are you missing a figure my friend? We're talking about two different currency pairs, I quoted GBP EUR rates, you're referencing GBP USD rates... ?