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> Sam Abuelsamid, the industry analyst, told me that he “did some math” on Cruise’s plan to generate a billion dollars in revenue in 2025. He concluded that the
by tuatoru 3y ago
> Sam Abuelsamid, the industry analyst, told me that he “did some math” on Cruise’s plan to generate a billion dollars in revenue in 2025. He concluded that the goal was “actually probably achievable.” He estimates that the goal corresponds to a fleet of around 6,000 driverless vehicles
Let's plug in some reasonable guesses and see. 6000 vehicles x 10 trips/day average x $25/trip average x 250 days/year: $375M.
To an analyst that maybe be practically the same as a billion, but not to an accountant. And that's gross revenue. Take off all the car costs as well as the overhead.
(Remember: these vehicles can't cope with the busiest, most profitable locations for taxis.)
- carstenhag 3y agoWhy would a self-driving car only drive for 250 days? You have to consider maintenance/repairs, but that won't be 115 days. The 10 trip a day guess is probably also low, but seems okay as an average to me.
- ekianjo 3y agoWith 330 days a year it still brings you to half a billion, which is half of what's considered "achievable". This means they would need 20 trips per day on average, or higher pricing on average for each trip.
- tuatoru 3y agoBecause the demand is only there for 250 days.
- addisonl 3y agoBased on...your best guess?
- WheatMillington 3y agoI am puzzled by your assumptions. 10 rides per day? How many rides do you think a taxi/uber driver does in one SHIFT? 250 days - why? I would expect more like 95% uptime and 95% availability, for 329 days.
- dvh 3y agoYou don't have to estimate, use average income of taxi driver as that's what ai taxi will earn.
- carstenhag 3y agoOr even more. An AI taxi won't speed or nearly cause accidents due to braking way too late. Greetings from my recent Poland trip :D (But yeah, time will tell whether they will cause unnecessary accidents in other ways)