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It's just crazy because you can get to driving great 99.99999% of the time very very quickly. The unceasing attention & ability to keep track of known unknowns

It's just crazy because you can get to driving great 99.99999% of the time very very quickly. The unceasing attention & ability to keep track of known unknowns is a huge superpower versus humans. But all the other cases, that wild element of reality, is so endlessly widely puzzling.

monero-xmr 3y ago
The amount of engineering, testing, rigor, and so on for a rover on Mars is stunning. And they are working with much more constrained environments without human actors. Society won’t accept robots that kill people. You can bring out statistics until you are blue in the face, but a major reason car accidents are tolerated is that a person can be convicted if they break the law. A faceless AI that hides behind insurance won’t cut it. Enthusiasts of self-driving cars can be hyper-logical about statistics, safety analyses, etc. while simultaneously ignoring all the other areas of political life that are based on emotion rather than rational logic. If we can’t convince huge fractions of society about basic truths - pick whatever truths you are passionate about that half the country disbelieves - why do you think society will accept robot cars that cause accidents (even 1)? It’s not going to happen.
- hamilyon2 3y ago
  Exactly this, or something very close to this already happened in history. There was a time it was legal for pedestrians to just walk on the road. Now it is illegal and nobody blames "killer bolt" or it's operator if this person is hurt. Society adapted around technology, not the other way around. The other example is of course railroads and trains. People literally made laws and diminish freedoms of people to allow giant polluting noisy hazardous carriages do their thing and punish anyone who impeded them harshly. No reason to think it can't happen third time. We just adapt roads, laws and customs to tell people e.g. "if a purple vehicle on purple road kills you, it is 100% your fault because this law says so". And other nations will have to accept it too because nobody wants to be outcompeted.
- d0mine 3y ago
  "Despite claims to the contrary, self-driving cars currently have a _higher_ rate of accidents than human-driven cars, but the injuries are less severe. On average, there are 9.1 self-driving car accidents per million miles driven, while the same rate is 4.1 crashes per million miles for regular vehicles." https://www.natlawreview.com/article/dangers-driverless-cars#:~:text=Despite%20claims%20to%20the%20contrary,million%20miles%20for%20regular%20vehicles https://www.natlawreview.com/article/dangers-driverless-cars.... I didn't know that statistics for self-driving car is that good (just 2x worse than humans). Last time I've checked, it was an order of magnitude worse. Perhaps, the statistics is for ideal conditions.

monero-xmr 3y ago

The amount of engineering, testing, rigor, and so on for a rover on Mars is stunning. And they are working with much more constrained environments without human actors. Society won’t accept robots that kill people. You can bring out statistics until you are blue in the face, but a major reason car accidents are tolerated is that a person can be convicted if they break the law. A faceless AI that hides behind insurance won’t cut it. Enthusiasts of self-driving cars can be hyper-logical about statistics, safety analyses, etc. while simultaneously ignoring all the other areas of political life that are based on emotion rather than rational logic. If we can’t convince huge fractions of society about basic truths - pick whatever truths you are passionate about that half the country disbelieves - why do you think society will accept robot cars that cause accidents (even 1)? It’s not going to happen.

hamilyon2 3y ago
Exactly this, or something very close to this already happened in history. There was a time it was legal for pedestrians to just walk on the road. Now it is illegal and nobody blames "killer bolt" or it's operator if this person is hurt. Society adapted around technology, not the other way around. The other example is of course railroads and trains. People literally made laws and diminish freedoms of people to allow giant polluting noisy hazardous carriages do their thing and punish anyone who impeded them harshly. No reason to think it can't happen third time. We just adapt roads, laws and customs to tell people e.g. "if a purple vehicle on purple road kills you, it is 100% your fault because this law says so". And other nations will have to accept it too because nobody wants to be outcompeted.
d0mine 3y ago
"Despite claims to the contrary, self-driving cars currently have a _higher_ rate of accidents than human-driven cars, but the injuries are less severe. On average, there are 9.1 self-driving car accidents per million miles driven, while the same rate is 4.1 crashes per million miles for regular vehicles." https://www.natlawreview.com/article/dangers-driverless-cars#:~:text=Despite%20claims%20to%20the%20contrary,million%20miles%20for%20regular%20vehicles https://www.natlawreview.com/article/dangers-driverless-cars.... I didn't know that statistics for self-driving car is that good (just 2x worse than humans). Last time I've checked, it was an order of magnitude worse. Perhaps, the statistics is for ideal conditions.