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> they’re already testing it in Phoenix and San Francisco It's not dead, it's just extremely niche. Try testing in the sticks in country roads in England. Most
by tomxor 3y ago
> they’re already testing it in Phoenix and San Francisco
It's not dead, it's just extremely niche. Try testing in the sticks in country roads in England. Most people from the US who try that for the first time are terrified, and that's not even the worst of it, roads world wide are complex, diverse and require immense adaptability and negotiation. Negotiation of large, well defined city roads is only progress towards that niche not arbitrary self driving ability.
- local_crmdgeon 3y agoThe % of total English driving that occurs on country roads is miniscule. That's the niche* usecase. The vast majority of driving occurs in sub/urban areas. The rate of driving even within the city of London/Manchester/Cambridge is dropping like a rock. If you solve the 80% of that use case, you still have most of the thing, and that seems close.
- acdha 3y agoThe problem is that these systems can't handle a ton of “edge” cases which are actually fairly common — they work in the best case scenarios when conditions are normal, weather is decent, other drivers are behaving, etc. That could, as you point out, still replace a LOT of human driving time but there are two challenges: the first is that you don't know when road or weather conditions will change unexpectedly and require human intervention, and the second is that there's a fair cost to having these systems. That extra cost is easy to justify when the pitch is “you get a robot chauffeur and can watch a movie or sleep” but not when it's “you need to be ready to step in at a moment's notice because we just encountered inconsistent markings, road work, or a spill”. I am expecting something like the automatic convoying some of the trucking companies have been experimenting with to be more successful since they avoid the tedium aspects (they're already paying a driver to handle everything), don't drive in terrible conditions or unusual roadways, and since they get heavy utilization of the vehicles there isn't the problem of paying even more for something which already sits idle 95% of the time.
- storkhm 3y agoI will believe self driving long haul trucking when I see it. I imagine it is a bit of a pipe dream. When it goes wrong it is going to go horribly wrong, most likely at very high speeds and the liability will all be on the trucking company.
- fallingknife 3y agoWhat makes country roads in England so terrifying to US drivers (other than the obvious left vs right issue which would apply to cities too)?
- dghlsakjg 3y agoCountry roads in England are generally less than two lanes wide, and have a ton of blind curves. Oncoming passes must be coordinated carefully
- tomxor 3y agoYeah, even with the larger lanes you have to get used to judging minimal clearance often without a centre line which may be intentionally left out to encourage common sense negotiation. That's before we even get into City parking where you have to be good at squeezing into improbably sized spaces on narrow Victorian streets. There are also some newly developed areas in the middle of some cities where the roads are pristine, well marked, with generous and consistent lane widths, those look closer to something like Phoenix (except not a giant grid), but that's uncommon, most areas are a patchwork due to the way everything has evolved slowly over time.
- dghlsakjg 3y agoThe same is true in the US. They are trying in new, car-centric cities where the weather is almost always clear and sunny. There’s a reason that they aren’t doing this where it snows, or in cities that aren’t giant car-first grids.