3 ms·

Well nevermind the unknown unknowns. There are even known unknowns, like quantum gravity. Like yeah it's fun to speculate what will happen billions of years fro

by im3w1l 3y ago

Well nevermind the unknown unknowns. There are even known unknowns, like quantum gravity. Like yeah it's fun to speculate what will happen billions of years from now, but with many known gaps in physical theories, it's quite possible or even likely that our current prediction will have to undergo significant revision.

dredmorbius 3y ago
True (a known known), but ... ... one of my broader and highly significant points reponding to treprinum is that models of the future beyond our ability to actually witness them are a fraught epistemic space. Of the various definitions of "science" is Popper's notion of falsifiability. There are numerous criticisms of that criterion, and the one I'm highlighting here is that we cannot falsify that which we will never witness. It's tough enough to make a prediction about the next five minutes, tomorrow, week, month, or year. The span of a human lifetime (or adult awareness) spans roughly 50--100 years. The span of a given civilisation or culture anywhere from roughly a century to a few millennia. Of civilisation, ten millennia, of modern humans, roughly 100--200 millennia, of humans as a species, about 2 million years. You and I will in all probability not be here to witness what will occur in the year 2123 (and quite probably much sooner, even given a long life). There are predictions which exist for what will transpire in that timespan, but our touchstone for judging these is largely based on what we have observed in the past, in various domains (astronomy, geology, climate, biology, ecology, social sciences, history, humanities). But in the sense that we can make and test a prediction ... we're sort of up a creek. I'll go out on a limb (and emphasize the point again) that consistency is our only guide.

3 ms·

Well nevermind the unknown unknowns. There are even known unknowns, like quantum gravity. Like yeah it's fun to speculate what will happen billions of years fro

by im3w1l 3y ago

dredmorbius 3y ago
True (a known known), but ... ... one of my broader and highly significant points reponding to treprinum is that models of the future beyond our ability to actually witness them are a fraught epistemic space. Of the various definitions of "science" is Popper's notion of falsifiability. There are numerous criticisms of that criterion, and the one I'm highlighting here is that we cannot falsify that which we will never witness. It's tough enough to make a prediction about the next five minutes, tomorrow, week, month, or year. The span of a human lifetime (or adult awareness) spans roughly 50--100 years. The span of a given civilisation or culture anywhere from roughly a century to a few millennia. Of civilisation, ten millennia, of modern humans, roughly 100--200 millennia, of humans as a species, about 2 million years. You and I will in all probability not be here to witness what will occur in the year 2123 (and quite probably much sooner, even given a long life). There are predictions which exist for what will transpire in that timespan, but our touchstone for judging these is largely based on what we have observed in the past, in various domains (astronomy, geology, climate, biology, ecology, social sciences, history, humanities). But in the sense that we can make and test a prediction ... we're sort of up a creek. I'll go out on a limb (and emphasize the point again) that consistency is our only guide.