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> Caveat there is that the numbers are based on what US can observe through SWIFT trade, but Russia does most of its trade now in local currencies. So these num
by _kbh_ 3y ago
> Caveat there is that the numbers are based on what US can observe through SWIFT trade, but Russia does most of its trade now in local currencies. So these numbers claiming revenue is down 43% aren't actually showing the whole picture. However, as the article admits, even that is still pretty significant.
No it's not, the budget deficit information comes from Russia itself.
- yogthos 3y agoYou're making a conjecture between two separate things. The statement regarding revenue being down 43% is not related to the deficit statement from Russia.
- chrysler 3y agoIt's all a part of the same picture. Details and figures may vary a little based on which periods are used for reference, but the overall story remains the same. As of April, according to RU FinMin, income from oil&gas is down -52% YoY, expenditure up +26%, deficit at 30%. In a departure from the usual dry and humorless style of official press releases, they describe outlook as positive. And even these figures are artificially pumped by factors like the previously mentioned "trade in local currencies". India pays for oil in rupees, which are piling up in Indian banks because there is no use for them. Russia has no comparable demand for Indian goods, can't exhange rupees for other currencies, can't pay to third countries in rupees, and is unwilling to invest that money in India. Oil flows to India, nothing comes back. If this is how Russia "successfully skirts western sanctions", then may it continue for a long time.
- yogthos 3y agoI guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens won't we. Seems to me that the economic problems that Europe is seeing right now are far worse than ones in Russia. So, if things continue the way they are European economy can't last a long time.
- _kbh_ 3y ago> I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens won't we. Seems to me that the economic problems that Europe is seeing right now are far worse than ones in Russia. So, if things continue the way they are European economy can't last a long time. The Russians have a deficit of over 40 billion dollars, it doesn't look super rosy. Additionally they are losing a lot of people in the war and having countries cancel military equipment orders.