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> I was amazed when living in SF how many of the homeless are not locals. Not even Californians! Source? Because this seems to be banded around in comments wi

> I was amazed when living in SF how many of the homeless are not locals. Not even Californians! Source? Because this seems to be banded around in comments without anyone sourcing. I dropped this actual source [1] in another comment, that measures 13% of unsheltered homeless as coming from out of state for LA. [1] https://www.politifact.com/article/2018/jun/28/dispelling-myths-about-californias-homeless/ https://www.politifact.com/article/2018/jun/28/dispelling-my...

atdrummond 3y ago
I didn’t state any numbers. I don’t know. All I have is anecdotes from myself and others who work in this space. That said, you don’t think even 1 in 9 people being out of staters puts pressure on programs? That as more people see how you can migrate and live far more easily than in Midwestern/East Coast cities, that those numbers won’t increase? That there isn’t a negative psychic impact to homeless people who are actually trying to get out of the system having to live around many others who are content to collect their scrip? I’m skeptical the number is that low but even if it is, I don’t think it is the non-issue you think it is. I think it reveals quite a lot about the preferences of the homeless who both originate from within, and outside, California.
- mschuster91 3y ago
  Homeless people will always gravitate towards where sleeping rough is easier - no one wants to risk freezing to death.
- latency-guy2 3y ago
  > I don’t think it is the non-issue you think it is. Those words, phrases, and thoughts were never shared by the user. This is you inventing a person in your head, and you are arguing with that imaginary person.
nwienert 3y ago
On my street in the Mission there were mostly illegal immigrants living on the sidewalk in tents, they told me as much.
- junofan 3y ago
  Yeah you can just go talk to them to find out where your local homeless are coming from.
  - krainboltgreene 3y ago
    I'm glad HN has decided anecdotal evidence is more powerful than data. This is exactly what the tech sector needs to thrive.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - nwienert 3y ago
      It is more powerful. Data is often meaningless without interpretation, missing many dimensions, easily and often manipulated, funded by unknown desires and forces, and generally unreliable. Outside of the hardest of sciences it’s worse than worthless. Meanwhile a single sharp person who lives in a city and interacts with the right intersection of people will tell you closer to the truth than even the better quality studies or media outlets. To think otherwise is imo foolish.
      - krainboltgreene 3y ago
        You're right it's much better to rely on information that is expected to be meaningless, has zero dimensions, is guaranteed to be biased, has no backing, and is scientifically proven to be unreliable. Exactly what I expect from HN's crowd.
        nwienert 3y ago
        If your trust for first hand accounts from people you trust is meaningless, I feel sorry for you. And if you aren’t able to intuit their biases based on your history with them and take that into account, more so. That you seemingly missed the caveat that I mentioned about “hard sciences” also not a good sign.
zumu 3y ago
That source quotes a study from LA county (not SF) in 2018, which discloses no methodology. So not a bullet-proof statistic by any means.
ESTheComposer 3y ago
If I recall correctly, this source was criticized because their measurement for being "out of state" was that you haven't been in CA for 2 years or so. So if someone had come in 2+ years ago for the CA homeless benefits then they would be considered not out of state. EDIT: I might be thinking of a different study, because going to that link shows that 65% were in LA county for 20 years supposedly: https://www.lahsa.org/documents?id=2059-2018-greater-los-angeles-homeless-count-presentation.pdf https://www.lahsa.org/documents?id=2059-2018-greater-los-ang... I say supposedly because it doesn't mention how they got that information. If they used county records, it's a very different trust paradigm than if they just asked.
jahewson 3y ago
This is politics masquerading as facts.

atdrummond 3y ago

I didn’t state any numbers. I don’t know. All I have is anecdotes from myself and others who work in this space. That said, you don’t think even 1 in 9 people being out of staters puts pressure on programs? That as more people see how you can migrate and live far more easily than in Midwestern/East Coast cities, that those numbers won’t increase? That there isn’t a negative psychic impact to homeless people who are actually trying to get out of the system having to live around many others who are content to collect their scrip? I’m skeptical the number is that low but even if it is, I don’t think it is the non-issue you think it is. I think it reveals quite a lot about the preferences of the homeless who both originate from within, and outside, California.

mschuster91 3y ago
Homeless people will always gravitate towards where sleeping rough is easier - no one wants to risk freezing to death.
latency-guy2 3y ago
> I don’t think it is the non-issue you think it is. Those words, phrases, and thoughts were never shared by the user. This is you inventing a person in your head, and you are arguing with that imaginary person.

nwienert 3y ago

On my street in the Mission there were mostly illegal immigrants living on the sidewalk in tents, they told me as much.

junofan 3y ago
Yeah you can just go talk to them to find out where your local homeless are coming from.
- krainboltgreene 3y ago
  I'm glad HN has decided anecdotal evidence is more powerful than data. This is exactly what the tech sector needs to thrive.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - nwienert 3y ago
    It is more powerful. Data is often meaningless without interpretation, missing many dimensions, easily and often manipulated, funded by unknown desires and forces, and generally unreliable. Outside of the hardest of sciences it’s worse than worthless. Meanwhile a single sharp person who lives in a city and interacts with the right intersection of people will tell you closer to the truth than even the better quality studies or media outlets. To think otherwise is imo foolish.
    - krainboltgreene 3y ago
      You're right it's much better to rely on information that is expected to be meaningless, has zero dimensions, is guaranteed to be biased, has no backing, and is scientifically proven to be unreliable. Exactly what I expect from HN's crowd.
      - nwienert 3y ago
        If your trust for first hand accounts from people you trust is meaningless, I feel sorry for you. And if you aren’t able to intuit their biases based on your history with them and take that into account, more so. That you seemingly missed the caveat that I mentioned about “hard sciences” also not a good sign.

zumu 3y ago

That source quotes a study from LA county (not SF) in 2018, which discloses no methodology. So not a bullet-proof statistic by any means.

ESTheComposer 3y ago

If I recall correctly, this source was criticized because their measurement for being "out of state" was that you haven't been in CA for 2 years or so. So if someone had come in 2+ years ago for the CA homeless benefits then they would be considered not out of state. EDIT: I might be thinking of a different study, because going to that link shows that 65% were in LA county for 20 years supposedly: https://www.lahsa.org/documents?id=2059-2018-greater-los-angeles-homeless-count-presentation.pdf https://www.lahsa.org/documents?id=2059-2018-greater-los-ang... I say supposedly because it doesn't mention how they got that information. If they used county records, it's a very different trust paradigm than if they just asked.

jahewson 3y ago

This is politics masquerading as facts.