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The trend lines for this have been obvious for a decade or more for anyone who has paid even cursory attention to the energy industry. The comment section under

The trend lines for this have been obvious for a decade or more for anyone who has paid even cursory attention to the energy industry. The comment section under this post will be full of the same skepticism that always accompanies these announcements, and solar will keep chugging along regardless.

Raztuf 3y ago
I am interested to learn more about the subject, even in more technical details. Do you have any source suggestions ?
- laratiede 3y ago
  Read any book by Vaclav Smil if you want to understand the space of energy and not live in fantasy land. There is no way solar is going to overtake everything by 2027. I wish that was the case, it would be awesome but that is just not going to happen. This fantasy land stuff is so counterproductive because when it doesn't happen it causes people to question the entire idea. How the World Really Works is Smil's book to counter fantasy land stuff like this article but the problem is there is a true believer contingent that that is just not interested in the real world. Anyone who thinks otherwise is simply uneducated, ignorant or a true believer themselves. The fundamental problem is reflected in Smil's writing. The space of energy is incredibly complex and an incredibly dry read. It couldn't lend itself less to news articles and social media posts. So we end up with this ridiculous two sided argument between climate change denial morons and climate fanatics who think solar is going to overtake everything by 2027 and to think otherwise is to be one of the climate change denial morons. It is fucking pathetic.
  - pjc50 3y ago
    Do you have any source suggestions that come without a side order of insults?
  - suoduandao2 3y ago
    First time I’ve heard the 2027 number. Given current fossil reserves 2127 would probably be early enough for civilization to pull through. Considering the overall tone of your comment 2027 comes across like a favourite straw man.
gonzo41 3y ago
Every roof in a city, All bus shelters, car parks with shade roofs. Ive often wondered why there's not solar snaking down the highways. There's so much unused land between roads just waiting for panels.
- jackmott42 3y ago
  As grids reach higher and higher % of renewables you need more and more storage or more and more peaking plants. You could very easily just crank out solar panels but building the storage gets to be apollo program scale projects as % solar gets very high. Just a few tesla mega packs isn't enough if you are over 50%. You need entire lakes. And we should be doing those programs!
  - pjc50 3y ago
    Sure, but the interim solution of "just deploy more panels and turn down/off the existing fossil fuel plants during the day" is working pretty well. I suppose once we start seeing significant periods of negative or zero pricing the storage will start happening.
    - ftth_finland 3y ago
      As noted, that only works in the short term. Once base load and/or peaker plants become unprofitable, you either lose those or end up paying for them to idle. Neither outcome is very desirable. Energy storage is unlikely to come to the rescue in time.
  - xbmcuser 3y ago
    As new safer battery tech like sodium ion gets cheaper. I think we are looking at all homes having batteries that can store and run 24-36 hours rather than large scale batteries. As batteries get cheaper and more solar is added power companies are likely to start offering people better rates for electricity if they are willing to install a grid controlled battery in their garage as the power companies can use the cheaper solar electricity for arbitrage instead of running peaker plants.

Raztuf 3y ago

I am interested to learn more about the subject, even in more technical details. Do you have any source suggestions ?

laratiede 3y ago
Read any book by Vaclav Smil if you want to understand the space of energy and not live in fantasy land. There is no way solar is going to overtake everything by 2027. I wish that was the case, it would be awesome but that is just not going to happen. This fantasy land stuff is so counterproductive because when it doesn't happen it causes people to question the entire idea. How the World Really Works is Smil's book to counter fantasy land stuff like this article but the problem is there is a true believer contingent that that is just not interested in the real world. Anyone who thinks otherwise is simply uneducated, ignorant or a true believer themselves. The fundamental problem is reflected in Smil's writing. The space of energy is incredibly complex and an incredibly dry read. It couldn't lend itself less to news articles and social media posts. So we end up with this ridiculous two sided argument between climate change denial morons and climate fanatics who think solar is going to overtake everything by 2027 and to think otherwise is to be one of the climate change denial morons. It is fucking pathetic.
- pjc50 3y ago
  Do you have any source suggestions that come without a side order of insults?
- suoduandao2 3y ago
  First time I’ve heard the 2027 number. Given current fossil reserves 2127 would probably be early enough for civilization to pull through. Considering the overall tone of your comment 2027 comes across like a favourite straw man.

gonzo41 3y ago

Every roof in a city, All bus shelters, car parks with shade roofs. Ive often wondered why there's not solar snaking down the highways. There's so much unused land between roads just waiting for panels.

jackmott42 3y ago
As grids reach higher and higher % of renewables you need more and more storage or more and more peaking plants. You could very easily just crank out solar panels but building the storage gets to be apollo program scale projects as % solar gets very high. Just a few tesla mega packs isn't enough if you are over 50%. You need entire lakes. And we should be doing those programs!
- pjc50 3y ago
  Sure, but the interim solution of "just deploy more panels and turn down/off the existing fossil fuel plants during the day" is working pretty well. I suppose once we start seeing significant periods of negative or zero pricing the storage will start happening.
  - ftth_finland 3y ago
    As noted, that only works in the short term. Once base load and/or peaker plants become unprofitable, you either lose those or end up paying for them to idle. Neither outcome is very desirable. Energy storage is unlikely to come to the rescue in time.
- xbmcuser 3y ago
  As new safer battery tech like sodium ion gets cheaper. I think we are looking at all homes having batteries that can store and run 24-36 hours rather than large scale batteries. As batteries get cheaper and more solar is added power companies are likely to start offering people better rates for electricity if they are willing to install a grid controlled battery in their garage as the power companies can use the cheaper solar electricity for arbitrage instead of running peaker plants.