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The fact that we don't know some details doesn't mean that we can't make good predictions about _probabilities_. Yes, because there's plenty of datapoints to m

The fact that we don't know some details doesn't mean that we can't make good predictions about _probabilities_. Yes, because there's plenty of datapoints to make prediction by extrapolation. Just look at the progress between GPT-1, GPT-2, GPT-3 and GPT-4 and extrapolate to GPT-5, GPT-6 etc. There could be some roadblocks that would prevent further progress, but the default prediction should be that the trend continues. Metaculus has had predictions for various AI milestones for years and has been consistently too conservative for resolved questions. It now predicts 50% of the invention of full AGI by 2032 which by extension might also be too conservative.

danaris 3y ago
What is the probability that we will achieve FTL travel within the next 100 years? What is the probability that we will be visited openly by intelligent, friendly aliens within the next 50 years? What is the probability that we will develop a device that allows us to seamlessly and accurately converse with dogs and cats within the next 10 years? We can assign probabilities to any of these, but they will be based purely on speculation, because none of these things are known to be possible. Note, not "I can make an argument that they should be possible"; known, with a solid scientific basis and an understanding, at least among experts, of the basic steps needed to get there. On the other hand, "the probability that we will achieve commercially-viable nuclear fusion within 30 years" is a different kind of calculation to make: we understand the physics, we've got a pretty damn good idea of what advances we need to make it possible; the main problem is getting the money, time, and manpower (aka, money, money, and money) to create the materials and build the prototypes. AGI falls into the former category, not the latter.

danaris 3y ago

What is the probability that we will achieve FTL travel within the next 100 years? What is the probability that we will be visited openly by intelligent, friendly aliens within the next 50 years? What is the probability that we will develop a device that allows us to seamlessly and accurately converse with dogs and cats within the next 10 years? We can assign probabilities to any of these, but they will be based purely on speculation, because none of these things are known to be possible. Note, not "I can make an argument that they should be possible"; known, with a solid scientific basis and an understanding, at least among experts, of the basic steps needed to get there. On the other hand, "the probability that we will achieve commercially-viable nuclear fusion within 30 years" is a different kind of calculation to make: we understand the physics, we've got a pretty damn good idea of what advances we need to make it possible; the main problem is getting the money, time, and manpower (aka, money, money, and money) to create the materials and build the prototypes. AGI falls into the former category, not the latter.