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The path to many things are completely unknown but that doesn't make them likely to happen or worth worrying about. I still don't get it. We can't know if we'v

The path to many things are completely unknown but that doesn't make them likely to happen or worth worrying about. I still don't get it. We can't know if we've started the process to summon alien entities from another dimension through a rift in spacetime, either.

digging 3y ago
Yes, but we also don't have reason to believe summoning alien entities through any kind of rift is at all possible. According to known physics, it can't happen. On the other hand, we don't have any scientific reason to believe that superhuman AGI isn't possible. We know AI is possible, because we have it right now. What's preventing it from getting smarter than us? The human soul? To clarify, most believe we likely have started on the path to superhuman AGI. We just don't know how or when we'll reach an arbitrary threshold where it becomes dangerous. There are many finish lines and we can't see any of them, but we're running as fast as we can down the path of least resistance and hoping we don't cross a finish line we don't like.
- tome 3y ago
  > we don't have any scientific reason to believe that superhuman AGI isn't possible Sorry, what? According to which scientific theories is AGI possible, and what principles are those theories based on? What testable hypotheses say that it is, and which experimental evidence has been produced in favour of AGI being possible?
  - digging 3y ago
    We have no evidence one way or the other, but it's kind of insane to me to think that superhuman AGI is not possible. Human-level intelligence is possible. See: humans Do you think it's physically impossible to recreate human-level general intelligence artificially? Do you think it's physically impossible for any intelligence to be superhuman, even a natural intelligence? Unless you answered "yes" to either of the above, why shouldn't it be physically possible for humans to create superhuman AGI? Is there any physical law whatsoever that even hints that intelligence should be able to create AGI at its own level, but in no way more intelligent? I never said there was a physical theory that predicts superhuman AGI. But in contrast, there are other concepts such as time travel which are prohibited by certain theories we have. It seems very unlikely for time travel to be possible. Superhuman AGI is not prohibited from existence.
    - tome 3y ago
      > Do you think it's physically impossible to recreate human-level general intelligence artificially? I have no idea. I have no basis for concluding it's either possible or impossible. > Do you think it's physically impossible for any intelligence to be superhuman, even a natural intelligence? No, I think a godlike being could materialise an entity with superhuman intelligence, or natural selection could evolve one (perhaps even on earth -- perhaps it already has!). > Unless you answered "yes" to either of the above, why shouldn't it be physically possible for humans to create superhuman AGI? Even assuming I believe both the above are possible that doesn't mean I think it's possible they could occur on planet earth within any meaningful time frame. I also think that interstellar travel is compatible with the laws of physics but just because we've sent humans to the moon and robots to mars we have no idea whether interstellar travel is feasible or when it might occur. For me the response to the advent of GPT is like people saying "wow, we've sent men to walk on the moon -- if we keep going people will soon be visiting mars/alpha centauri!". There's no rational basis (scientific, logical, anything) for knowing whether AGI is more akin to mars in this analogy (and we're really quite close) or to alpha centauri (and we're nowhere near).
      - fsflover 3y ago
        >> Do you think it's physically impossible for any intelligence to be superhuman, even a natural intelligence? > No, I think a godlike being... Superhuman intelligence is a reality in many fields already: chess, Go, self-driving cars at certain conditions, calculations and many more. This is not necessary to have it for everything at all.
        tome 3y ago
        I'm not really sure what you're saying, but sure, we've had superhuman intelligences for at least 200 years, when Babbage invented the difference engine. If you're willing to count abaci we've had superhuman intelligences for thousands of years. You might object that the intelligence of an abacus is manifest not just in a device but in an amalgam of human and device. But isn't the same true for all computation that humanity has so far harnessed?

digging 3y ago

Yes, but we also don't have reason to believe summoning alien entities through any kind of rift is at all possible. According to known physics, it can't happen. On the other hand, we don't have any scientific reason to believe that superhuman AGI isn't possible. We know AI is possible, because we have it right now. What's preventing it from getting smarter than us? The human soul? To clarify, most believe we likely have started on the path to superhuman AGI. We just don't know how or when we'll reach an arbitrary threshold where it becomes dangerous. There are many finish lines and we can't see any of them, but we're running as fast as we can down the path of least resistance and hoping we don't cross a finish line we don't like.

tome 3y ago
> we don't have any scientific reason to believe that superhuman AGI isn't possible Sorry, what? According to which scientific theories is AGI possible, and what principles are those theories based on? What testable hypotheses say that it is, and which experimental evidence has been produced in favour of AGI being possible?
- digging 3y ago
  We have no evidence one way or the other, but it's kind of insane to me to think that superhuman AGI is not possible. Human-level intelligence is possible. See: humans Do you think it's physically impossible to recreate human-level general intelligence artificially? Do you think it's physically impossible for any intelligence to be superhuman, even a natural intelligence? Unless you answered "yes" to either of the above, why shouldn't it be physically possible for humans to create superhuman AGI? Is there any physical law whatsoever that even hints that intelligence should be able to create AGI at its own level, but in no way more intelligent? I never said there was a physical theory that predicts superhuman AGI. But in contrast, there are other concepts such as time travel which are prohibited by certain theories we have. It seems very unlikely for time travel to be possible. Superhuman AGI is not prohibited from existence.
  - tome 3y ago
    > Do you think it's physically impossible to recreate human-level general intelligence artificially? I have no idea. I have no basis for concluding it's either possible or impossible. > Do you think it's physically impossible for any intelligence to be superhuman, even a natural intelligence? No, I think a godlike being could materialise an entity with superhuman intelligence, or natural selection could evolve one (perhaps even on earth -- perhaps it already has!). > Unless you answered "yes" to either of the above, why shouldn't it be physically possible for humans to create superhuman AGI? Even assuming I believe both the above are possible that doesn't mean I think it's possible they could occur on planet earth within any meaningful time frame. I also think that interstellar travel is compatible with the laws of physics but just because we've sent humans to the moon and robots to mars we have no idea whether interstellar travel is feasible or when it might occur. For me the response to the advent of GPT is like people saying "wow, we've sent men to walk on the moon -- if we keep going people will soon be visiting mars/alpha centauri!". There's no rational basis (scientific, logical, anything) for knowing whether AGI is more akin to mars in this analogy (and we're really quite close) or to alpha centauri (and we're nowhere near).
    - fsflover 3y ago
      >> Do you think it's physically impossible for any intelligence to be superhuman, even a natural intelligence? > No, I think a godlike being... Superhuman intelligence is a reality in many fields already: chess, Go, self-driving cars at certain conditions, calculations and many more. This is not necessary to have it for everything at all.
      - tome 3y ago
        I'm not really sure what you're saying, but sure, we've had superhuman intelligences for at least 200 years, when Babbage invented the difference engine. If you're willing to count abaci we've had superhuman intelligences for thousands of years. You might object that the intelligence of an abacus is manifest not just in a device but in an amalgam of human and device. But isn't the same true for all computation that humanity has so far harnessed?