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Not nearly as sharply as people claim, what's happening in practice is that Europe is just buying repackaged Russian fossil fuels through resellers. I find it a

Not nearly as sharply as people claim, what's happening in practice is that Europe is just buying repackaged Russian fossil fuels through resellers. I find it amazing that people can't understand that you can't just make huge volumes of oil and gas appear out of thin air. Europe would have to drastically change its whole energy infrastructure to become actually independent of Russian energy. This will be a decades long project of creating alternative energy production.

The_Colonel 3y ago
Not all. Russia doesn't have any other customers for gas which it used to sell to Europe because of the lack of pipelines leading elsewhere. Its LNG capacity is very limited. Keep also in mind that Russia's gas has never actually been sanctioned and Europe is willing to buy it in the short term. > This will be a decades long project of creating alternative energy production. It will take years, yes. Europe kind of ignored this problem, now it will have to pay to get out of it. There's no other way, though.
- yogthos 3y ago
  Russia is already building pipelines to China on a massive scale https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/russia-to-invest-almost-100bn-in-gas-pipelines-to-china/ https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/russia-to-invest-al... So, by the time Europe actually manages to wean itself off from Russian gas, there will be infrastructure for Russia to direct gas to China and other countries. I certainly agree that Europe has no other choice at this point. How Europe manages its energy transition is a big question though since energy is needed to build out the alternative infrastructure.
  - The_Colonel 3y ago
    First, China has always paid significantly less than Europe for Russian gas. Now, it looks like Russia is going to spend $100 billion on the pipeline to sell its gas cheaply. But wait, China isn't that eager to commit to the project: https://www.ft.com/content/541f8bcb-118a-419e-869f-3273fcc9ce92 https://www.ft.com/content/541f8bcb-118a-419e-869f-3273fcc9c... Maybe China is trying to bargain even better price? China can, after all, buy energy from other sellers, but Russia has nowhere else to sell its gas.
    - yogthos 3y ago
      The simple fact here is that China will want to secure resources from Russia that will not be affected by western sanctions going forward. Russia will sell gas and oil to China at a discount, but at the end of the day Russia gets to offload its resources and China secures its energy. Meanwhile, Europe is stuck buying LNG on the spot market at a far higher rate than it was getting via pipelines from Russia. I wonder who the bigger loser in all this is... The whole context here is whether Russia is suffering economically as a result more than Europe. Given that Germany is already in a recession, it's pretty clear what the answer is.
      - The_Colonel 3y ago
        > The simple fact here is that China will want to secure resources from Russia that will not be affected by western sanctions going forward. Now, that's not a simple fact. A simple fact is that China still didn't commit to the project. > but at the end of the day Russia gets to offload its resources Don't you think that the price is an important part here? If Russia "offloads" its resources at prices near break even, then the whole situation is a strategic loss. > The whole context here is whether Russia is suffering economically as a result more than Europe. Given that Germany is already in a recession, it's pretty clear what the answer is. Even the poor data we have points to Russia being the bigger loser.
        yogthos 3y ago
        > Now, that's not a simple fact. A simple fact is that China still didn't commit to the project. Large scale projects take time to negotiate, the fact that you're desperate to make something more out of it says volumes. > Don't you think that the price is an important part here? If Russia "offloads" its resources at prices near break even, then the whole situation is a strategic loss. Except they're not selling at break even prices, this is just the fairy tale you keep repeating here. > Even the poor data we have points to Russia being the bigger loser. It doesn't show anything of the sort as numerous articles I've provided clearly state. However, you're clearly just going to repeat this like a broken record so I don't see any point continuing this discussion. We'll see who's right soon enough.

The_Colonel 3y ago

Not all. Russia doesn't have any other customers for gas which it used to sell to Europe because of the lack of pipelines leading elsewhere. Its LNG capacity is very limited. Keep also in mind that Russia's gas has never actually been sanctioned and Europe is willing to buy it in the short term. > This will be a decades long project of creating alternative energy production. It will take years, yes. Europe kind of ignored this problem, now it will have to pay to get out of it. There's no other way, though.

yogthos 3y ago
Russia is already building pipelines to China on a massive scale https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/russia-to-invest-almost-100bn-in-gas-pipelines-to-china/ https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/russia-to-invest-al... So, by the time Europe actually manages to wean itself off from Russian gas, there will be infrastructure for Russia to direct gas to China and other countries. I certainly agree that Europe has no other choice at this point. How Europe manages its energy transition is a big question though since energy is needed to build out the alternative infrastructure.
- The_Colonel 3y ago
  First, China has always paid significantly less than Europe for Russian gas. Now, it looks like Russia is going to spend $100 billion on the pipeline to sell its gas cheaply. But wait, China isn't that eager to commit to the project: https://www.ft.com/content/541f8bcb-118a-419e-869f-3273fcc9ce92 https://www.ft.com/content/541f8bcb-118a-419e-869f-3273fcc9c... Maybe China is trying to bargain even better price? China can, after all, buy energy from other sellers, but Russia has nowhere else to sell its gas.
  - yogthos 3y ago
    The simple fact here is that China will want to secure resources from Russia that will not be affected by western sanctions going forward. Russia will sell gas and oil to China at a discount, but at the end of the day Russia gets to offload its resources and China secures its energy. Meanwhile, Europe is stuck buying LNG on the spot market at a far higher rate than it was getting via pipelines from Russia. I wonder who the bigger loser in all this is... The whole context here is whether Russia is suffering economically as a result more than Europe. Given that Germany is already in a recession, it's pretty clear what the answer is.
    - The_Colonel 3y ago
      > The simple fact here is that China will want to secure resources from Russia that will not be affected by western sanctions going forward. Now, that's not a simple fact. A simple fact is that China still didn't commit to the project. > but at the end of the day Russia gets to offload its resources Don't you think that the price is an important part here? If Russia "offloads" its resources at prices near break even, then the whole situation is a strategic loss. > The whole context here is whether Russia is suffering economically as a result more than Europe. Given that Germany is already in a recession, it's pretty clear what the answer is. Even the poor data we have points to Russia being the bigger loser.
      - yogthos 3y ago
        > Now, that's not a simple fact. A simple fact is that China still didn't commit to the project. Large scale projects take time to negotiate, the fact that you're desperate to make something more out of it says volumes. > Don't you think that the price is an important part here? If Russia "offloads" its resources at prices near break even, then the whole situation is a strategic loss. Except they're not selling at break even prices, this is just the fairy tale you keep repeating here. > Even the poor data we have points to Russia being the bigger loser. It doesn't show anything of the sort as numerous articles I've provided clearly state. However, you're clearly just going to repeat this like a broken record so I don't see any point continuing this discussion. We'll see who's right soon enough.