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It's pretty weird to claim that providing articles with the information that supports the points I'm making is an agenda. The problem with the claims in the art

It's pretty weird to claim that providing articles with the information that supports the points I'm making is an agenda. The problem with the claims in the articles you linked make is that they're at odds with the reality we're currently observing. There has been no evidence that Russia's war in Ukraine has been negatively impacted by the sanctions, and the predictions we hear every month that Russia is going to run out of weapons are not coming true either. Meanwhile, economy in Russia appears to be doing just fine because the void that western companies left is being filled by companies from China and India. The whole premise of your argument seems to be based on the notion that countries can't have an economy that's independent from the west. This is an absurd idea given that the west accounts for only 20% of world's population. Majority of the world sharply disagrees with the west as studies commissioned by EU and US clearly show: https://ecfr.eu/publication/united-west-divided-from-the-rest-global-public-opinion-one-year-into-russias-war-on-ukraine/ https://ecfr.eu/publication/united-west-divided-from-the-res... https://usrussiaaccord.org/acura-viewpoint-krishen-mehta-the-ukraine-war-viewed-from-the-global-south/ https://usrussiaaccord.org/acura-viewpoint-krishen-mehta-the... And here's how NYT puts it: > A year on, it’s becoming clearer: While the West’s core coalition remains remarkably solid, it never convinced the rest of the world to isolate Russia. https://archive.is/2023.02.23-211202/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/23/world/russia-ukraine-geopolitics.html https://archive.is/2023.02.23-211202/https://www.nytimes.com... What ultimately matters is the relative damage the sanctions are causing to Russia and Europe. There is clear evidence that there has been sever economic impact on Europe as a result of the sanctions, and there is no evidence that there's a greater crisis in Russia than in Europe right now. It's also important to note that Russia has already made it through two major crises in the 90s and in 2014 while Europe has not experienced anything similar in recent history. What remains to be seen is whether Europe or Russia will be able to handle the decoupling better.

The_Colonel 3y ago
> It's pretty weird to claim that providing articles with the information that supports the points I'm making is an agenda. The problem is that you're presenting the problem as very one sided while it's clearly contested at minimum. This + the fact you're Russian is making it easy to guess whose agenda you're pushing. > There has been no evidence that Russia's war in Ukraine has been negatively impacted by the sanctions It's difficult to get neutral data. We have data from Kremlin, but it would be dumb to take their word as true. An unconvential data measuring emissions suggest that Russian industry is in decline: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-economy-suffering-industrial-decline-024945565.html https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-economy-suffering-... > This is an absurd idea given that the west accounts for only 20% of world's population I guess you're intentionally "forgetting" that the west amounts to 50% of world's economy. Being sanctioned by half the world's economy has likely negative consequences. > and there is no evidence that there's a greater crisis in Russia than in Europe right now. We have only little evidence unfortunately, since as stated above, we simply lack reliable data. There are a few tidbits which might suggest that the economic picture is not that rosy - the emission study above, the Russian state deficits, dropping oil/gas revenues and even Putin admitting that sanctions can hurt Russian economy. But to repeat myself, I'm ready to admit that the sanctions regime is not perfect. It's a reminder to work harder on new sanctions and to plug holes.
- yogthos 3y ago
  > The problem is that you're presenting the problem as very one sided while it's clearly contested at minimum. This + the fact you're Russian is making it easy to guess whose agenda you're pushing. You're literally doing what you're accusing me of in this thread. The fact that you continue to use ad hominem as a form of argument really shows which one of us has an agenda here. > It's difficult to get neutral data. We have data from Kremlin, but it would be dumb to take their word as true. We don't have to take their word as true, we can look at the fact that western media is now increasingly skeptical about the direction of the war.' > An unconvential data measuring emissions suggest that Russian industry is in decline That's really not showing much of anything, the graphs in the actual report show minor fluctuations, and don't even show longer term trends https://archive.ph/2XS6C https://archive.ph/2XS6C > I guess you're intentionally "forgetting" that the west amounts to 50% of world's economy. Being sanctioned by half the world's economy has likely negative consequences. I guess you're forgetting that this cuts both ways. Being cut off from a major commodity exporter is currently hurting western countries. That's why Germany is in a recession right now. Meanwhile, your argument doesn't actually hold because Russia just needs to have enough trade partners to replace the trade with the west, and the west still needs the things it was getting from Russia. So, all that happens in practice is that Russia sells to other countries, and they resell to the west. This is how supply and demand works. > We have only little evidence unfortunately, since as stated above, we simply lack reliable data. There are a few tidbits which might suggest that the economic picture is not that rosy - the emission study above, the Russian state deficits, dropping oil/gas revenues and even Putin admitting that sanctions can hurt Russian economy. There are plenty of tidbits that suggest western economies are in a terrible shape and that western countries are experiencing an unprecedented cost of living crisis right now. As I've pointed out before, Russia has made it through much bigger crises in 1990s and in 2014. On the other hand, the west has not had a comparable crisis to what we're seeing now in recent history. We'll just have to see how the west copes with it. > But to repeat myself, I'm ready to admit that the sanctions regime is not perfect. It's a reminder to work harder on new sanctions and to plug holes. What the sanctions are actually achieving is creating a whole separate economy around BRICS that will be decoupled from the west. The whole scheme can only work when the west is at the centre of the world economy. That's no longer the case, and we're seeing countries moving off the dollar now at an accelerating rate.

The_Colonel 3y ago

> It's pretty weird to claim that providing articles with the information that supports the points I'm making is an agenda. The problem is that you're presenting the problem as very one sided while it's clearly contested at minimum. This + the fact you're Russian is making it easy to guess whose agenda you're pushing. > There has been no evidence that Russia's war in Ukraine has been negatively impacted by the sanctions It's difficult to get neutral data. We have data from Kremlin, but it would be dumb to take their word as true. An unconvential data measuring emissions suggest that Russian industry is in decline: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-economy-suffering-industrial-decline-024945565.html https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-economy-suffering-... > This is an absurd idea given that the west accounts for only 20% of world's population I guess you're intentionally "forgetting" that the west amounts to 50% of world's economy. Being sanctioned by half the world's economy has likely negative consequences. > and there is no evidence that there's a greater crisis in Russia than in Europe right now. We have only little evidence unfortunately, since as stated above, we simply lack reliable data. There are a few tidbits which might suggest that the economic picture is not that rosy - the emission study above, the Russian state deficits, dropping oil/gas revenues and even Putin admitting that sanctions can hurt Russian economy. But to repeat myself, I'm ready to admit that the sanctions regime is not perfect. It's a reminder to work harder on new sanctions and to plug holes.

yogthos 3y ago
> The problem is that you're presenting the problem as very one sided while it's clearly contested at minimum. This + the fact you're Russian is making it easy to guess whose agenda you're pushing. You're literally doing what you're accusing me of in this thread. The fact that you continue to use ad hominem as a form of argument really shows which one of us has an agenda here. > It's difficult to get neutral data. We have data from Kremlin, but it would be dumb to take their word as true. We don't have to take their word as true, we can look at the fact that western media is now increasingly skeptical about the direction of the war.' > An unconvential data measuring emissions suggest that Russian industry is in decline That's really not showing much of anything, the graphs in the actual report show minor fluctuations, and don't even show longer term trends https://archive.ph/2XS6C https://archive.ph/2XS6C > I guess you're intentionally "forgetting" that the west amounts to 50% of world's economy. Being sanctioned by half the world's economy has likely negative consequences. I guess you're forgetting that this cuts both ways. Being cut off from a major commodity exporter is currently hurting western countries. That's why Germany is in a recession right now. Meanwhile, your argument doesn't actually hold because Russia just needs to have enough trade partners to replace the trade with the west, and the west still needs the things it was getting from Russia. So, all that happens in practice is that Russia sells to other countries, and they resell to the west. This is how supply and demand works. > We have only little evidence unfortunately, since as stated above, we simply lack reliable data. There are a few tidbits which might suggest that the economic picture is not that rosy - the emission study above, the Russian state deficits, dropping oil/gas revenues and even Putin admitting that sanctions can hurt Russian economy. There are plenty of tidbits that suggest western economies are in a terrible shape and that western countries are experiencing an unprecedented cost of living crisis right now. As I've pointed out before, Russia has made it through much bigger crises in 1990s and in 2014. On the other hand, the west has not had a comparable crisis to what we're seeing now in recent history. We'll just have to see how the west copes with it. > But to repeat myself, I'm ready to admit that the sanctions regime is not perfect. It's a reminder to work harder on new sanctions and to plug holes. What the sanctions are actually achieving is creating a whole separate economy around BRICS that will be decoupled from the west. The whole scheme can only work when the west is at the centre of the world economy. That's no longer the case, and we're seeing countries moving off the dollar now at an accelerating rate.