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I can't tell if this is just a matter of different assumptions. I think superintelligence is obvious even in principle. I would analogize with some technology
by nh23423fefe 3y ago
I can't tell if this is just a matter of different assumptions.
I think superintelligence is obvious even in principle. I would analogize with some technology like nano-tech. The tech-tree starts with fire, metallurgy, chemistry, atomic physics, solid-state electronics and will eventually get to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomically_precise_manufacturing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomically_precise_manufacturi...
There is nothing "in principle" to stop this trend, and even more than that, there is no limitation when constructing arrangements of matter outside physics and knowledge. You could accuse me of technological determinism if you wanted.
superintelligence isnt something different than intelligence to me. Its just a transition in the substrate. Intelligence is the emergent capacity of a system to alter its environment to achieve goals. superintelligent systems are those with more capability. the main difference is the magnitude of the ability to correlate the system's internal model with external reality and then act on that model to produce low error predictions of the world state. the act-perceive-optimize loop of synthetic minds is unbounded in ways that biological minds are. artificial minds will build larger models of the world that correlate better with reality and they will search-think-tinker with their internal models to better achieve their goals.
What could stop this? Sure you can posit an asymphtote. But what if i said the singularity creates minds that are 300 IQ? Smarter than any person would ever be even if trillions of humans were born. What if the number is 3000 IQ?
I do think of it as evolution but faster because evolution isn't directed, its just global search optimization. AI will be driven toward capability, not optimal fitness.
- golol 3y agoYou know I agree that superintelligence is totally possible, but what I disagree with is that it follows immediately after AGI. Suppose you reach the level of AGI. Then your AGI can not just write down the weights for a smarter AI. It has roughly the intelligence of humans, so to build a better AI it would have to do something similar to what humans do: Large scale training on large computers . This takes time and is easily supervisable. I don't see a risk of rapid singularity like intelligence blow up. There is a risk of the AGI escaping but since it needs aignificant amounts of compute, and does mot have the intelligence to just rewrite itself into a decentralized abstract form, I again don't see a big danger. When we are at this stage we can start worrying about superintelligence, as well as AI rights and digital citzenship obviously.