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I guess we'll see won't we. However, it's pretty obvious that Russia is doing massive amounts of trade with China and India. Trade between China and Russia has

I guess we'll see won't we. However, it's pretty obvious that Russia is doing massive amounts of trade with China and India. Trade between China and Russia has already reached over 200 billion this year. So, not really sure what this notion that Russian economy is collapsing is based on to be honest.

The_Colonel 3y ago
> However, it's pretty obvious that Russia is doing massive amounts of trade with China and India. For sure India and China are eager to exploit the very unequal relationship where Russia now needs India and China much more than the opposite. The Russian economy is not collapsing, but I'm pretty sure it's hurting. Even if we had real GDP figures, they'd be misleading as now a significant part of the GDP is coming from production of military gear which is literally being burned and does not generate income or feed into other parts of the economy.
- yogthos 3y ago
  This is just wild speculation that's completely baseless I'm afraid. We've literally been hearing this story for nearly two years now, and there is zero substantive evidence to support any of these assertions.
  - The_Colonel 3y ago
    It's just basic economics. India and China have a bigger leverage, it would be stupid of them to not use it. I mean, what's the alternative explanation of why India increased the Russian oil imports tenfold? It's not because of good will, it's because India can suddenly import Russian oil much cheaper than before. Why does Russia sell oil cheaper to India? Because it won't find another such big customer.
    - yogthos 3y ago
      Basic economics say that Russia is a major commodity exporter and that as long as there is global demand for these commodities then Russia will have no problem selling them. It's like you don't understand how basic supply and demand works. India gets a great deal because it can buy oil from Russia at a slight discount and then resell it to Europe at a large markup. The loser here isn't Russia but Europe.
      - The_Colonel 3y ago
        > India gets a great deal because it can buy oil from Russia at a slight discount and then resell it to Europe at a large markup. The loser here isn't Russia but Europe. You're contradicting yourself. India is selling at a market rate, so if there's a profit to make, it's coming from the Russian side. Pick one - either India has a big markup or Russia sells with only small discount. Both can't be true.
        yogthos 3y ago
        You're the one who said that India can suddenly import Russian oil much cheaper than before. So, using your logic India is selling oil to Europe at a markup. If Russia is selling to India at a small discount, then India is still making money directly at the expense of Europe.
        The_Colonel 3y ago
        I'm happy to admit that India is making money as middlemen, that's exactly how the price cap was supposed to work. But given India is selling at market price, it's cutting into Russian profits. Indian profit is the same as Russian loss, so it's really silly to claim that Russian discount is "small" while India makes "big" markups.
        yogthos 3y ago
        That's absolutely not how the price cap was supposed to work since India is buying at a higher price than the cap and we've seen repeated complaints from western officials regarding this fact. Again, as many articles I've linked show, there is no sign that this is cutting into Russian profits in any significant way/ However, it absolutely is devastating European economy. I'll reiterate my point since it clearly escaped you. The question is which economy is being hurt more relatively speaking. There is clear evidence that European economy is suffering and countries like Germany are now in recession. There is no such evidence regarding Russian economy.

The_Colonel 3y ago

> However, it's pretty obvious that Russia is doing massive amounts of trade with China and India. For sure India and China are eager to exploit the very unequal relationship where Russia now needs India and China much more than the opposite. The Russian economy is not collapsing, but I'm pretty sure it's hurting. Even if we had real GDP figures, they'd be misleading as now a significant part of the GDP is coming from production of military gear which is literally being burned and does not generate income or feed into other parts of the economy.

yogthos 3y ago
This is just wild speculation that's completely baseless I'm afraid. We've literally been hearing this story for nearly two years now, and there is zero substantive evidence to support any of these assertions.
- The_Colonel 3y ago
  It's just basic economics. India and China have a bigger leverage, it would be stupid of them to not use it. I mean, what's the alternative explanation of why India increased the Russian oil imports tenfold? It's not because of good will, it's because India can suddenly import Russian oil much cheaper than before. Why does Russia sell oil cheaper to India? Because it won't find another such big customer.
  - yogthos 3y ago
    Basic economics say that Russia is a major commodity exporter and that as long as there is global demand for these commodities then Russia will have no problem selling them. It's like you don't understand how basic supply and demand works. India gets a great deal because it can buy oil from Russia at a slight discount and then resell it to Europe at a large markup. The loser here isn't Russia but Europe.
    - The_Colonel 3y ago
      > India gets a great deal because it can buy oil from Russia at a slight discount and then resell it to Europe at a large markup. The loser here isn't Russia but Europe. You're contradicting yourself. India is selling at a market rate, so if there's a profit to make, it's coming from the Russian side. Pick one - either India has a big markup or Russia sells with only small discount. Both can't be true.
      - yogthos 3y ago
        You're the one who said that India can suddenly import Russian oil much cheaper than before. So, using your logic India is selling oil to Europe at a markup. If Russia is selling to India at a small discount, then India is still making money directly at the expense of Europe.
        The_Colonel 3y ago
        I'm happy to admit that India is making money as middlemen, that's exactly how the price cap was supposed to work. But given India is selling at market price, it's cutting into Russian profits. Indian profit is the same as Russian loss, so it's really silly to claim that Russian discount is "small" while India makes "big" markups.
        yogthos 3y ago
        That's absolutely not how the price cap was supposed to work since India is buying at a higher price than the cap and we've seen repeated complaints from western officials regarding this fact. Again, as many articles I've linked show, there is no sign that this is cutting into Russian profits in any significant way/ However, it absolutely is devastating European economy. I'll reiterate my point since it clearly escaped you. The question is which economy is being hurt more relatively speaking. There is clear evidence that European economy is suffering and countries like Germany are now in recession. There is no such evidence regarding Russian economy.