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I used to agree with what you're saying, but after reading this leaked Google memo I think maybe we're both wrong: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have

I used to agree with what you're saying, but after reading this leaked Google memo I think maybe we're both wrong: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-neither https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-ne... Experts who are both in a position to know, and seeking to maximize the commercial potential of their work are saying the cat is already out of the bag. They make a persuasive case that public, open-source models are closing the gap with private, commercial ones and admit bluntly, "We have no secret sauce."

twobitshifter 3y ago
Interesting, but Google has the worlds largest search index to use to build models, and billions of android phones and gmail accounts. An open source model may share the same algorithm but it’s possible training set will be dwarfed by Google. It even might have the same number of connections. The article is arguing that a few billion is enough, but what about 5 years from now and even for fewer connections data quality wouldn’t matter? Sure you can run a model slowly on a raspberry pi, but custom silicon can’t do more? There’s a linked “data doesn't do what you think” document in that post, which might counter this argument but the site is now down.
- philgoetz 3y ago
  The site isn't down. It's censored. Look at the link address.
Roritharr 3y ago
Having spoken to a bunch of people that either have just left Google or still work there, practically all of them think this was not so much a leak as a placed bit of news to support them in potential future anti-trust cases.
- cf141q5325 3y ago
  There is not much that could help them. The search engine monopoly times wont repeat, despite some people trying very hard to build a regulatory captured Alphapersude monopoly. For that you need to offer an actual edge over the competition. Treating the users worse isnt one. Which brings us back to OP, progress will luckily eat anyone attempting that.
censor_me 3y ago
[dead]

twobitshifter 3y ago

Interesting, but Google has the worlds largest search index to use to build models, and billions of android phones and gmail accounts. An open source model may share the same algorithm but it’s possible training set will be dwarfed by Google. It even might have the same number of connections. The article is arguing that a few billion is enough, but what about 5 years from now and even for fewer connections data quality wouldn’t matter? Sure you can run a model slowly on a raspberry pi, but custom silicon can’t do more? There’s a linked “data doesn't do what you think” document in that post, which might counter this argument but the site is now down.

philgoetz 3y ago
The site isn't down. It's censored. Look at the link address.

Roritharr 3y ago

Having spoken to a bunch of people that either have just left Google or still work there, practically all of them think this was not so much a leak as a placed bit of news to support them in potential future anti-trust cases.

cf141q5325 3y ago
There is not much that could help them. The search engine monopoly times wont repeat, despite some people trying very hard to build a regulatory captured Alphapersude monopoly. For that you need to offer an actual edge over the competition. Treating the users worse isnt one. Which brings us back to OP, progress will luckily eat anyone attempting that.

censor_me 3y ago

[dead]