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I think it's very unlikely that any of those would lead to human extinction, especially since most of those take decades to unfold, and would still leave large
by duvenaud 3y ago
I think it's very unlikely that any of those would lead to human extinction, especially since most of those take decades to unfold, and would still leave large parts of the earth habitable.
Toby Ord wrote a book trying to estimate each of these risks, and put AI on top:
https://www.amazon.ca/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X/ https://www.amazon.ca/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Huma...
- cwkoss 3y agoWell, I think paperclip maximizers or 'kill all humans' skynet scenarios are extremely implausible. From the examples we have, intelligence is anticorrelated with sadism and avarice.
- duvenaud 3y agoSure, but think about how humans drove others extinct. We never decided to "kill all wooly mammoths", we just wanted to use their meat / habitats for other things. The correlation you mention seems noisy enough that I wouldn't want to bet my civilization on it.