> Just based on vibes yeah? Not even remotely. > Because the evidence I've looked at evidence on and off for over 20 years. I've asked for disconfirming evid

> Just based on vibes yeah? Not even remotely. > Because the evidence I've looked at evidence on and off for over 20 years. I've asked for disconfirming evidence. I've never seen it. Housing costs do not fall from market-driven buildouts. They may rise more slowly but even the evidence there is inconsistent (no surprise given supply is never the only factor). They don't fall except with at least regional macroeconomic changes of fortune. If you believe you're in possession of evidence to the contrary, by all means, surprise me. If you merely expect the evidence to be there because supply-and-demand, by all means, attempt to surprise me. > theory You may want to re-read my comment and note that I articulated a basis in economic theory regarding why market incentives alone don't cause housing costs to fall. Feel free to criticize that specifically if you're sure my position isn't substantiated theoretically. > Southern cities are building more and growing rent at much lower rates Yes, if you have substantial underutilized and geographically convenient land due to historical timing and HVAC advances, it turns out additional supply is cheap enough to build out (out being a key word) that developers aren't as strongly incentivized to maximize returns by chasing the higher end (and if they try, they face more competition from individuals or smaller hungrier teams). Once you've left easy mode where building out is difficult (or has diminishing returns of its own) and are left with building up & redevelopment and regional demand is still sustained, the incentives change and so does how/what developers build & price. > These policies just raise rents. Even if they did raise rents, they would certainly not just do that, they'd provide a revenue stream and reshape incentives. But I'm not sure they do. Explain how diversified vs consolidated ownership changes rent prices and why the latter might leave rents lower. Or hey, don't, and ask why I'd think the reverse is true. High-rent taxes might get passed on to the market, but the owner keeps less and depending on how you construct them may also make the point of diminishing marginal returns lower, making increasing unit count on a property a better strategy.