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Frankly, if people got a magic crystal ball and after hearing that warning in 1965 they would be able to know that there would be a 1.1C temperature rise by 202

Frankly, if people got a magic crystal ball and after hearing that warning in 1965 they would be able to know that there would be a 1.1C temperature rise by 2023 - in 58 years - then it still would make all sense for them to do nothing. For these people, even if (a big if!) there would be a global consensus, then they would not approve significant cuts to the industry and consumption in order to prevent the limited effect that we're seeing now. The world was a much poorer place in absolute numbers, and wellbeing was directly linked to physical goods unlike the digital economy we have now, so even with perfect foresight, the big priorities of that era would still be increasing agriculture (through mass use of fossil fuels!) to feed people and increasing industry (through mass use of fossil fuels!) to reduce global poverty. The Green Revolution and economic changes of 1965-1985 were an enormous boon to humanity, and sacrificing THAT to slow down climate change would not be a good deal for us. And of course, unilateral sacrifices make even less sense. At the height of the Cold war, neither the west nor the USSR could agree to simply restrict their industry while the other would do nothing, because then you suffer all the drawbacks and climate change doesn't get prevented anyway.

beerpls 3y ago
Not to mention that developing tech faster can lead to subsequent tech that will help clean the mess. We don’t talk about climate change as an engineering project, but it absolutely could be. Think if we spent a fraction of what we spend on war every decade and instead dedicated that to tech to cleanse the atmosphere or oceans, or maybe even fusion.
gmuslera 3y ago
That 1.1°C is not your everyday weather temperature. Is the global average over a year. It’s not like the temperature at 13:58 on Monday will be 1.1°C higher than what it was exactly 60 years before. That kind of increase is making frequent enough 1 in a century extreme weather events, Canada got 2 years ago nearly 50°C in a town, floods in all continents, increased frequency and strength of hurricanes and so on. And to make it worse, it is not the end of the change, and enough of the current warming is fueled by the warming itself, due to positive feedback loops, so it will keep going on even if we stop emissions. Things will keep getting worse, and will keep worsening probably for centuries. And things will stop being, let’s say, pleasant, closer to today than to the end of that process.
geysersam 3y ago
There are still enormous savings that could have been made by taking climate action more seriously earlier. Prioritizing efficient public transportation and the cargo train network. Reducing meat production. Insulating houses. Etc, would have prevented many net-bad investments that were made and would've alleviated the need to now very rapidly transition the economy at enormous cost. Not to speak of the cost in the future if we don't fix this.

beerpls 3y ago

Not to mention that developing tech faster can lead to subsequent tech that will help clean the mess. We don’t talk about climate change as an engineering project, but it absolutely could be. Think if we spent a fraction of what we spend on war every decade and instead dedicated that to tech to cleanse the atmosphere or oceans, or maybe even fusion.

gmuslera 3y ago

That 1.1°C is not your everyday weather temperature. Is the global average over a year. It’s not like the temperature at 13:58 on Monday will be 1.1°C higher than what it was exactly 60 years before. That kind of increase is making frequent enough 1 in a century extreme weather events, Canada got 2 years ago nearly 50°C in a town, floods in all continents, increased frequency and strength of hurricanes and so on. And to make it worse, it is not the end of the change, and enough of the current warming is fueled by the warming itself, due to positive feedback loops, so it will keep going on even if we stop emissions. Things will keep getting worse, and will keep worsening probably for centuries. And things will stop being, let’s say, pleasant, closer to today than to the end of that process.

geysersam 3y ago

There are still enormous savings that could have been made by taking climate action more seriously earlier. Prioritizing efficient public transportation and the cargo train network. Reducing meat production. Insulating houses. Etc, would have prevented many net-bad investments that were made and would've alleviated the need to now very rapidly transition the economy at enormous cost. Not to speak of the cost in the future if we don't fix this.