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In your rather long post, you did not mention the fact that Russia refuses to sell oil to any country which applies the price cap. I wonder, is this really not

In your rather long post, you did not mention the fact that Russia refuses to sell oil to any country which applies the price cap. I wonder, is this really not relevant for your analysis?

kstenerud 3y ago
It doesn't help Russia. The end result is the same: A smaller pool of customers and an anchored price for the remaining customers. In fact, Russia had to reduce their output because they refuse to sell it to countries that participate in the price cap and there isn't enough demand otherwise (also most of their flow goes west through the now mostly idle pipelines to Europe - It's MUCH harder to move oil east or south because the infrastructure in that direction isn't big enough to handle such a surge). So Russia's losing even MORE profits by refusing to sell to them. AND they still have to maintain the now idle pipelines to the West or else they'll break down over time and become useless.
- yogthos 3y ago
  That's just factually wrong I'm afraid https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea-report/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea...
  - kstenerud 3y ago
    "That's just factually wrong I'm afraid" This kind of response is incredibly rude. So it looks like their production has since gone up, a lot (after dropping mid last year). Profits are still down because nobody's paying full price. https://www.euronews.com/2023/05/31/russian-oil-exports-are-at-a-post-invasion-high-but-which-countries-are-buying-it https://www.euronews.com/2023/05/31/russian-oil-exports-are-...
    - yogthos 3y ago
      I'm not sure what's rude about stating that the statement you made is factually wrong. Furthermore, the west doesn't really have good data on the volume of sales Russia is doing because these transactions are happening outside of SWIFT.
      - _kbh_ 3y ago
        > https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea-report/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports... >> The revenue is still down 43% from a year ago, the IEA said, as Russia is forced to sell its barrels to a more limited pool of customers who can negotiate greater discounts. >> Still, sanctions have made a significant dent in Russia’s coffers. Last week, the government said declining energy revenues had contributed to a budget deficit of 2.4 trillion rubles ($29 billion) in the first three months of this year. Its overall income plunged nearly 21% compared with the same period in 2022, Reuters reported. So is this article a lie or not? its your own source, you seem to want to very selectively quote it.
        yogthos 3y ago
        Caveat there is that the numbers are based on what US can observe through SWIFT trade, but Russia does most of its trade now in local currencies. So these numbers claiming revenue is down 43% aren't actually showing the whole picture. However, as the article admits, even that is still pretty significant.
        _kbh_ 3y ago
        > Caveat there is that the numbers are based on what US can observe through SWIFT trade, but Russia does most of its trade now in local currencies. So these numbers claiming revenue is down 43% aren't actually showing the whole picture. However, as the article admits, even that is still pretty significant. No it's not, the budget deficit information comes from Russia itself.
        yogthos 3y ago

In your rather long post, you did not mention the fact that Russia refuses to sell oil to any country which applies the price cap. I wonder, is this really not relevant for your analysis?

kstenerud 3y ago

It doesn't help Russia. The end result is the same: A smaller pool of customers and an anchored price for the remaining customers. In fact, Russia had to reduce their output because they refuse to sell it to countries that participate in the price cap and there isn't enough demand otherwise (also most of their flow goes west through the now mostly idle pipelines to Europe - It's MUCH harder to move oil east or south because the infrastructure in that direction isn't big enough to handle such a surge). So Russia's losing even MORE profits by refusing to sell to them. AND they still have to maintain the now idle pipelines to the West or else they'll break down over time and become useless.

yogthos 3y ago
That's just factually wrong I'm afraid https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea-report/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea...
- kstenerud 3y ago
  "That's just factually wrong I'm afraid" This kind of response is incredibly rude. So it looks like their production has since gone up, a lot (after dropping mid last year). Profits are still down because nobody's paying full price. https://www.euronews.com/2023/05/31/russian-oil-exports-are-at-a-post-invasion-high-but-which-countries-are-buying-it https://www.euronews.com/2023/05/31/russian-oil-exports-are-...
  - yogthos 3y ago
    I'm not sure what's rude about stating that the statement you made is factually wrong. Furthermore, the west doesn't really have good data on the volume of sales Russia is doing because these transactions are happening outside of SWIFT.
    - _kbh_ 3y ago
      > https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea-report/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports... >> The revenue is still down 43% from a year ago, the IEA said, as Russia is forced to sell its barrels to a more limited pool of customers who can negotiate greater discounts. >> Still, sanctions have made a significant dent in Russia’s coffers. Last week, the government said declining energy revenues had contributed to a budget deficit of 2.4 trillion rubles ($29 billion) in the first three months of this year. Its overall income plunged nearly 21% compared with the same period in 2022, Reuters reported. So is this article a lie or not? its your own source, you seem to want to very selectively quote it.
      - yogthos 3y ago
        Caveat there is that the numbers are based on what US can observe through SWIFT trade, but Russia does most of its trade now in local currencies. So these numbers claiming revenue is down 43% aren't actually showing the whole picture. However, as the article admits, even that is still pretty significant.
        _kbh_ 3y ago
        > Caveat there is that the numbers are based on what US can observe through SWIFT trade, but Russia does most of its trade now in local currencies. So these numbers claiming revenue is down 43% aren't actually showing the whole picture. However, as the article admits, even that is still pretty significant. No it's not, the budget deficit information comes from Russia itself.
        yogthos 3y ago