7 ms·

Sure, but before that gas was funding a self professed foe. It's much better to not fund your enemies.

yogthos 3y ago
That logic only works if Europe was the only trading partner available to Russia. What happened in practice is that Russia simply redirected trade to other countries while Europe now pays a huge markup buying from resellers.
- DaedPsyker 3y ago
  But they aren't selling at their original price, Russia is now selling to those partners at a reduced price. At the very least it reduces the amount of funds Russia has at its disposal for the war.
  - yogthos 3y ago
    The discounts Russia offers to its partners are minimal, and as CNN reports, Russia's revenues are back to pre-war levels. So, not sure what you're going on about there. https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea-report/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea...
    - DaedPsyker 3y ago
      That appears to show that the volume has returned but not its price. "The revenue is still down 43% from a year ago, the IEA said, as Russia is forced to sell its barrels to a more limited pool of customers who can negotiate greater discounts."
      - yogthos 3y ago
        That doesn't actually follow. Had the west not got into a sanctions war with Russia, then they might've never increased their output. The end result is that the profits have not been affected. More importantly, what actually counts is the relative damage. It's pretty clear that EU economy has been affected far more severely than Russian economy. IMF projects Russia to actually have growth this year, while there is a recession projected across EU states.
        The_Colonel 3y ago
        > IMF projects Russia to actually have growth this year, while there is a recession projected across EU states. IMF bases their projection on data provided by Russian government agencies. So this works only if you trust Russian government to not fumble data.
        yogthos 3y ago
        I guess we'll see won't we. However, it's pretty obvious that Russia is doing massive amounts of trade with China and India. Trade between China and Russia has already reached over 200 billion this year. So, not really sure what this notion that Russian economy is collapsing is based on to be honest.
        The_Colonel 3y ago
        > However, it's pretty obvious that Russia is doing massive amounts of trade with China and India. For sure India and China are eager to exploit the very unequal relationship where Russia now needs India and China much more than the opposite. The Russian economy is not collapsing, but I'm pretty sure it's hurting. Even if we had real GDP figures, they'd be misleading as now a significant part of the GDP is coming from production of military gear which is literally being burned and does not generate income or feed into other parts of the economy.
        yogthos 3y ago
        This is just wild speculation that's completely baseless I'm afraid. We've literally been hearing this story for nearly two years now, and there is zero substantive evidence to support any of these assertions.
        The_Colonel 3y ago
        It's just basic economics. India and China have a bigger leverage, it would be stupid of them to not use it. I mean, what's the alternative explanation of why India increased the Russian oil imports tenfold? It's not because of good will, it's because India can suddenly import Russian oil much cheaper than before. Why does Russia sell oil cheaper to India? Because it won't find another such big customer.
    - actionfromafar 3y ago
      It doesn’t matter. The margins for the Russians would have been higher without middlemen. Now they are lower. (Partial) success!
    - lisasays 3y ago
      That's not what the article says. In fact, in terms or revenue levels that's the opposite of what it says.
- The_Colonel 3y ago
  There's no other customer for the gas Russia used to sell to Europe. There are no pipelines from western gas fields to the east.
  - yogthos 3y ago
    CNN article I linked in another disagrees with you.
    - The_Colonel 3y ago
      The CNN article doesn't mention natural gas at all.
      - yogthos 3y ago
        Russia's April gas exports to Europe up 7.5% from March, and as statistica link shows, Europe is nowhere close to cutting off Russian gas. The whole narrative that EU is independent from Russian fossil fuels is just fake news. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-april-gas-exports-europe-up-75-march-calculations-show-2023-05-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-april-gas-ex... https://www.statista.com/statistics/1306522/key-importers-of-russian-fossil-fuels-since-invasion-of-ukraine/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1306522/key-importers-of...
        The_Colonel 3y ago
        > The whole narrative that EU is independent from Russian fossil fuels is just fake news. I agree with you on that one. It's a longer project to become independent of Russian energy completely and we're not there yet. But the level of dependence dropped sharply since last year.
        yogthos 3y ago
        Not nearly as sharply as people claim, what's happening in practice is that Europe is just buying repackaged Russian fossil fuels through resellers. I find it amazing that people can't understand that you can't just make huge volumes of oil and gas appear out of thin air. Europe would have to drastically change its whole energy infrastructure to become actually independent of Russian energy. This will be a decades long project of creating alternative energy production.
- Kbelicius 3y ago
  Your logic only works if Russia could simply divert the flow of resources from Europe to somewhere else. They can't, not simply.
  - yogthos 3y ago
    This has already happened.
    - Kbelicius 3y ago
      No it did not. Neither by volume nor revenue.
      - yogthos 3y ago
        https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea-report/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea...
        deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
        Kbelicius 3y ago
        You weren't talking about crude oil only, were you? So what point are you trying to make with this article?
- onepointsixC 3y ago
  Russia isn't able to sell it to other customers for the same price as they are able to sell it to Europe. Transport, limited buyers all depress the price they can command. The Europeans aren't paying a huge markup - Oil is a commodity sold on an open market. Any oil that was originally from Russia had to been sold to an intermediary at a significant discount.
Gibbon1 3y ago
Long term investment is after Russia implodes the EU won't have to spend as much on weapons as they do now.
- yogthos 3y ago
  At the rate the things are going, it's looking far more likely that it's the EU that's going to implode.

That logic only works if Europe was the only trading partner available to Russia. What happened in practice is that Russia simply redirected trade to other countries while Europe now pays a huge markup buying from resellers.

DaedPsyker 3y ago
But they aren't selling at their original price, Russia is now selling to those partners at a reduced price. At the very least it reduces the amount of funds Russia has at its disposal for the war.
- yogthos 3y ago
  The discounts Russia offers to its partners are minimal, and as CNN reports, Russia's revenues are back to pre-war levels. So, not sure what you're going on about there. https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea-report/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea...
  - DaedPsyker 3y ago
    That appears to show that the volume has returned but not its price. "The revenue is still down 43% from a year ago, the IEA said, as Russia is forced to sell its barrels to a more limited pool of customers who can negotiate greater discounts."
    - yogthos 3y ago
      That doesn't actually follow. Had the west not got into a sanctions war with Russia, then they might've never increased their output. The end result is that the profits have not been affected. More importantly, what actually counts is the relative damage. It's pretty clear that EU economy has been affected far more severely than Russian economy. IMF projects Russia to actually have growth this year, while there is a recession projected across EU states.
      - The_Colonel 3y ago
        > IMF projects Russia to actually have growth this year, while there is a recession projected across EU states. IMF bases their projection on data provided by Russian government agencies. So this works only if you trust Russian government to not fumble data.
        yogthos 3y ago
        I guess we'll see won't we. However, it's pretty obvious that Russia is doing massive amounts of trade with China and India. Trade between China and Russia has already reached over 200 billion this year. So, not really sure what this notion that Russian economy is collapsing is based on to be honest.
        The_Colonel 3y ago
        > However, it's pretty obvious that Russia is doing massive amounts of trade with China and India. For sure India and China are eager to exploit the very unequal relationship where Russia now needs India and China much more than the opposite. The Russian economy is not collapsing, but I'm pretty sure it's hurting. Even if we had real GDP figures, they'd be misleading as now a significant part of the GDP is coming from production of military gear which is literally being burned and does not generate income or feed into other parts of the economy.
        yogthos 3y ago
        This is just wild speculation that's completely baseless I'm afraid. We've literally been hearing this story for nearly two years now, and there is zero substantive evidence to support any of these assertions.
        The_Colonel 3y ago
        It's just basic economics. India and China have a bigger leverage, it would be stupid of them to not use it. I mean, what's the alternative explanation of why India increased the Russian oil imports tenfold? It's not because of good will, it's because India can suddenly import Russian oil much cheaper than before. Why does Russia sell oil cheaper to India? Because it won't find another such big customer.
  - actionfromafar 3y ago
    It doesn’t matter. The margins for the Russians would have been higher without middlemen. Now they are lower. (Partial) success!
  - lisasays 3y ago
    That's not what the article says. In fact, in terms or revenue levels that's the opposite of what it says.
The_Colonel 3y ago
There's no other customer for the gas Russia used to sell to Europe. There are no pipelines from western gas fields to the east.
- yogthos 3y ago
  CNN article I linked in another disagrees with you.
  - The_Colonel 3y ago
    The CNN article doesn't mention natural gas at all.
    - yogthos 3y ago
      Russia's April gas exports to Europe up 7.5% from March, and as statistica link shows, Europe is nowhere close to cutting off Russian gas. The whole narrative that EU is independent from Russian fossil fuels is just fake news. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-april-gas-exports-europe-up-75-march-calculations-show-2023-05-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-april-gas-ex... https://www.statista.com/statistics/1306522/key-importers-of-russian-fossil-fuels-since-invasion-of-ukraine/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1306522/key-importers-of...
      - The_Colonel 3y ago
        > The whole narrative that EU is independent from Russian fossil fuels is just fake news. I agree with you on that one. It's a longer project to become independent of Russian energy completely and we're not there yet. But the level of dependence dropped sharply since last year.
        yogthos 3y ago
        Not nearly as sharply as people claim, what's happening in practice is that Europe is just buying repackaged Russian fossil fuels through resellers. I find it amazing that people can't understand that you can't just make huge volumes of oil and gas appear out of thin air. Europe would have to drastically change its whole energy infrastructure to become actually independent of Russian energy. This will be a decades long project of creating alternative energy production.
Kbelicius 3y ago
Your logic only works if Russia could simply divert the flow of resources from Europe to somewhere else. They can't, not simply.
- yogthos 3y ago
  This has already happened.
  - Kbelicius 3y ago
    No it did not. Neither by volume nor revenue.
    - yogthos 3y ago
      https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea-report/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/14/energy/russia-oil-exports-iea...
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - Kbelicius 3y ago
        You weren't talking about crude oil only, were you? So what point are you trying to make with this article?
onepointsixC 3y ago
Russia isn't able to sell it to other customers for the same price as they are able to sell it to Europe. Transport, limited buyers all depress the price they can command. The Europeans aren't paying a huge markup - Oil is a commodity sold on an open market. Any oil that was originally from Russia had to been sold to an intermediary at a significant discount.

Gibbon1 3y ago

Long term investment is after Russia implodes the EU won't have to spend as much on weapons as they do now.

yogthos 3y ago
At the rate the things are going, it's looking far more likely that it's the EU that's going to implode.