Correction: you perceive it to be a fallacy when others assign high probabilities to things you believe are low probability. Unfortunately, this cuts both ways

Correction: you perceive it to be a fallacy when others assign high probabilities to things you believe are low probability. Unfortunately, this cuts both ways. Many people believe your 1% estimate is unreasonably high. Are you therefore promoting a fallacy? Too many ridiculous arguments can be justified on the backs of probability estimates pulled from nether regions.