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Why are doomsday scenarios are certainty then. What's the model to get to that that isn't just some sort of scary story that waves away or into existence a lot

Why are doomsday scenarios are certainty then. What's the model to get to that that isn't just some sort of scary story that waves away or into existence a lot of things we don't know if they can exist.

pixl97 3y ago
>What's the model to get to that Let's say I was a small furry mammal that tasted really good, but also for some reason understood the world as it is now. I would tell you that super intelligence had already happened. That super intelligence was humans. That humans happened to reach super intelligence by 1) having the proper hardware. 2) filtering noise from important information. 3) then sharing that information with others to amplify the power of intelligence 4) having a toolkit/tools to turn that information into useful things. 5) And with all that power humans can kill me off in mass, or farm me for my tasty meat at their leisure with little to nothing that I can do about it. There doesn't appear to be any more magic than that. All these things already exist in biological systems that elevated humans far above their warm blooded peers. When we look at digital systems we see they are designed to communicate. You don't have an ethernet jack as a person. You can't speak the protocol to directly drive a 3 axis mill to produce something. Writing computer code is a pain in the ass to most of us. We are developing a universal communication intelligence, that at least in theory can drive tools at a much higher efficiency than humans will ever be able to. Coming back to point 5. Cats/dogs are the real smart ones here when dealing with superintelligences. Get domesticated by the intelligence so they want to keep you around as a pet.
- RandomLensman 3y ago
  Do you think we could wipe out all furry mammals, for example? Could another intelligence have the same level of difference to us as in your story we to furry mammals? We don't even know if the mythical superintelligence could manifest the way you assume. It assumes that intelligence basically can overcome any obstacles - I'd say we actually see that seems not to be the case currently and claims that that is just a function of sufficient intelligence are unproven (setting aside physical limits to certain actions and results).
  - pixl97 3y ago
    >Do you think we could wipe out all furry mammals, for example? lets go with over a particular size. Lets say larger than the biggest rat. In that case yes, very easily. Once you get to rats it becomes far more difficult and you're pretty much just destroying the biosphere at that point. > It assumes that intelligence basically can overcome any obstacles In the case of human extinction, no, a super intelligence would not have to overcome any obstacles, it would just have to overcome obstacles better than we did.
    - RandomLensman 3y ago
      So that is a "no" on all furry mammals. Also, the superintelligence doesn't just have to overcome obstacles better than we did, it needs to overcome the right obstacles to succeed with human extinction.

pixl97 3y ago

>What's the model to get to that Let's say I was a small furry mammal that tasted really good, but also for some reason understood the world as it is now. I would tell you that super intelligence had already happened. That super intelligence was humans. That humans happened to reach super intelligence by 1) having the proper hardware. 2) filtering noise from important information. 3) then sharing that information with others to amplify the power of intelligence 4) having a toolkit/tools to turn that information into useful things. 5) And with all that power humans can kill me off in mass, or farm me for my tasty meat at their leisure with little to nothing that I can do about it. There doesn't appear to be any more magic than that. All these things already exist in biological systems that elevated humans far above their warm blooded peers. When we look at digital systems we see they are designed to communicate. You don't have an ethernet jack as a person. You can't speak the protocol to directly drive a 3 axis mill to produce something. Writing computer code is a pain in the ass to most of us. We are developing a universal communication intelligence, that at least in theory can drive tools at a much higher efficiency than humans will ever be able to. Coming back to point 5. Cats/dogs are the real smart ones here when dealing with superintelligences. Get domesticated by the intelligence so they want to keep you around as a pet.

RandomLensman 3y ago
Do you think we could wipe out all furry mammals, for example? Could another intelligence have the same level of difference to us as in your story we to furry mammals? We don't even know if the mythical superintelligence could manifest the way you assume. It assumes that intelligence basically can overcome any obstacles - I'd say we actually see that seems not to be the case currently and claims that that is just a function of sufficient intelligence are unproven (setting aside physical limits to certain actions and results).
- pixl97 3y ago
  >Do you think we could wipe out all furry mammals, for example? lets go with over a particular size. Lets say larger than the biggest rat. In that case yes, very easily. Once you get to rats it becomes far more difficult and you're pretty much just destroying the biosphere at that point. > It assumes that intelligence basically can overcome any obstacles In the case of human extinction, no, a super intelligence would not have to overcome any obstacles, it would just have to overcome obstacles better than we did.
  - RandomLensman 3y ago
    So that is a "no" on all furry mammals. Also, the superintelligence doesn't just have to overcome obstacles better than we did, it needs to overcome the right obstacles to succeed with human extinction.