6 ms·

I recently raided my retirement accounts because we are at the end of a long term debt cycle and I do not believe in the future of the United States (government

by 29_29 3y ago

I recently raided my retirement accounts because we are at the end of a long term debt cycle and I do not believe in the future of the United States (government), the West or the dollar. I own gold, a farm and I raided the retirement accounts to buy a home. The only way out of 130% debt to GDP is default through inflation, high taxes, and bail ins.

pb7 3y ago
Are you planning on working (your farm) into your 80s?
- pstuart 3y ago
  That's what the kids are for.
  - tartuffe78 3y ago
    Assuming your kids enjoy living this exact lifestyle, and don't end up leaving, big assumption.
    - pstuart 3y ago
      I omitted the '/s'. In all seriousness, I could see the value of that in some idyllic context of a family farm but the days of having children for the sake of cheap labor are over (in the US at least).
    - baremetal 3y ago
      The way things are going, its possible that the farmstead lifestyle will be one of the highest standards of living available to the common man. The alternative might be living in 800sf apartments in a 15 minute city eating whatever food is on offer. Living through screens all day. Perhaps their kids will enjoy that way of life more than the sun on their face on a May afternoon with birds chirping in a field of grass wet with dew petting their livestock.
- tivert 3y ago
  > Are you planning on working (your farm) into your 80s? If you're so pessimistic that you literally sell your conventional assets to buy a farm, your retirement plan must involve children or some community inheriting it and taking care of you in your old age. But even if it doesn't, you're still probably ahead in your pessimistic scenario (e.g. surviving relatively comfortably until retirement age, instead of dying earlier in some kind of collapse).
  - baremetal 3y ago
    >your retirement plan must involve children or some community inheriting it and taking care of you in your old age. My farmland pays a rent dividend on the order of 2-4%/yr and I don't even have to be there or even show up to collect it. I bought my farmland because I consider it doing my part to preserve the planet. I'm a big believer in the future of locally produced food and more local communities in reducing emissions and _corporate wastefulness_. As a side benefit it will preserve my standard of living. I thoroughly enjoy steak and so do a lot of other people. Livestock, land, and gold have preserved wealth since ancient times.
    - pb7 3y ago
      If your farmland continues to yield 2-4% when shit hits the fan, I will dump my inflated money into an ETF that holds farmland.
      - 29_29 3y ago
        Not a bad time to buy a farm. Prices are coming down; my yield is a little bit different 1/3 of it is wooded/water - but its probably close to 2% plus tax benefits.
- 29_29 3y ago
  I have gold, you have casino chips in a failing empire.
  - pb7 3y ago
    You have a yellow metal that's too soft to even make useful tools to tend to your farm. My casino chips are a stake in the future of the world. If they become worthless, I will take your farm by force because no one will be around to stop me.
    - 29_29 3y ago
      > I will take your farm by force because no one will be around to stop me. Ah, you hit on it. That is the attitude! Problem is everyone has that entitlement. Trillions and trillions of claims.
      - pb7 3y ago
        Someone "claims" their share of equities by selling but someone else buys. Today I'm buying to invest in my future, someone that's in retirement is selling to fund their remaining years. Are you suggesting we won't have new generations that buy?
      - ryandrake 3y ago
        I've always thought that the people most vocal about preparing for societal collapse seem to be the people least likely to thrive in anarchy. When there is no law and order, we will be ruled by gangs and warlords, not by bootstrapping libertarians hanging on to gold coins and grandpa's shotgun. Nobody is going to care that you have a deed that shows you "own" a farm or that you put a little fence around it. I have a few acquaintances who consider themselves "peppers". When social distancing and travel restrictions started at the beginning of COVID, they were pretty much the first ones to crack and start complaining on social media about how unfair it was that they couldn't go shopping for khakis. So much for rugged self-reliance!
      - amanaplanacanal 3y ago
        betting on the collapse of the social order is a bad bet. sure, it may happen eventually, but it is unlikely to happen within an average person's lifetime.
wbl 3y ago
Higher taxes is not a default: it's what balancing the budget means
- 29_29 3y ago
  It is impossible to balance a budget with 130% debt to GDP. We crossed the event horizon, every country that has ever crossed this (save Japan which is doing horrible now) has defaulted through very high inflation or out of control deflation [1]. https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_presentations/470/57470/original.pdf https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_presentations/470...
  - greatwave1 3y ago
    Are you aware that debt is a cumulative metric, and GDP is an annual metric? If you want to compare apples-to-apples, our budget deficit (an annual metric, which measures the delta in debt) was $1.4 trillion in 2022, which is 5.5% of GDP. It's not impossible to balance a budget with 130% debt to GDP.
    - 29_29 3y ago
      If we did it we would be the first country in history to do so [1] 1. https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_presentations/470/57470/original.pdf https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_presentations/470...
      - peteradio 3y ago
        We are a country of firsts! USA USA!
      - greatwave1 3y ago
        Do you have any source to this claim? The letter that you linked doesn't cite any sources, and doesn't come from a reputable fund (based on a quick SEC search, Hirschmann Capital seems to only managing ~$20m AUM, meaning it's likely a one-man operation)
    - 3y ago
downWidOutaFite 3y ago
What is a long term debt cycle?
- 29_29 3y ago
  Ray Dalio wrote a book on it [1]. But here is a short video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0 1. https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/dp/1982160276 https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/...
fuoqi 3y ago
>I raided the retirement accounts to buy a home. Buying home at the current prices does not sound wise to me. Even if you expect for printing press to go brrr again, it's likely that before that we will see substantial decline in asset prices.
- dangwhy 3y ago
  > it's likely that before that we will see substantial decline in asset prices. Amount of ppl waiting for this to pounce is astronomical . And for that reason this will never happen. FOMO is at all time high atm partly due to peer perssure and social media
  - 29_29 3y ago
    Could happen. Could not happen. I don't have a crystal ball.
- 29_29 3y ago
  I need a place to live man. I can't wait forever for prices to come down, I've owned a home before, and even though rates suck, now is a better time for sure. It feels like I can shop.
  - baremetal 3y ago
    Build your own home. Just do something simple like a gable roof 20x50 or something small to start you can always add to it. In the meantime pickup an RV and live on the land. Used RV's should be cheaper right now.
    - HWR_14 3y ago
      When people say "buy a home", the majority of people are far more concerned with affording the land underneath (or share of a condo building) than the structure itself.
    - 29_29 3y ago
      My grandpa built his home and it was a nightmare. Contractors kept going cheap, he had to watch over them, cost overruns, delays, etc. He probably has a better home than one could ever buy, but I don't have that kind of time or money.
mdorazio 3y ago
Curious how you see this playing out internationally and how you maintain this opinion in the face of Japan (double our debt raio, biggest issue is population decline). Globally, the US debt to GDP ratio is roughly in line with a good chunk of Europe [1]. It seems like for a collapse to happen, the US would have to be worse-positioned than competing countries. Otherwise everyone declines together, which doesn't make much sense. [1] https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-country https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/debt-to-g...
bombcar 3y ago
You may be interested in this book. https://johntreed.myshopify.com/collections/john-t-reed-s-book-on-hyperinflation-and-depression https://johntreed.myshopify.com/collections/john-t-reed-s-bo...

by 29_29 3y ago

pb7 3y ago

Are you planning on working (your farm) into your 80s?

pstuart 3y ago
That's what the kids are for.
- tartuffe78 3y ago
  Assuming your kids enjoy living this exact lifestyle, and don't end up leaving, big assumption.
  - pstuart 3y ago
    I omitted the '/s'. In all seriousness, I could see the value of that in some idyllic context of a family farm but the days of having children for the sake of cheap labor are over (in the US at least).
  - baremetal 3y ago
    The way things are going, its possible that the farmstead lifestyle will be one of the highest standards of living available to the common man. The alternative might be living in 800sf apartments in a 15 minute city eating whatever food is on offer. Living through screens all day. Perhaps their kids will enjoy that way of life more than the sun on their face on a May afternoon with birds chirping in a field of grass wet with dew petting their livestock.
tivert 3y ago
> Are you planning on working (your farm) into your 80s? If you're so pessimistic that you literally sell your conventional assets to buy a farm, your retirement plan must involve children or some community inheriting it and taking care of you in your old age. But even if it doesn't, you're still probably ahead in your pessimistic scenario (e.g. surviving relatively comfortably until retirement age, instead of dying earlier in some kind of collapse).
- baremetal 3y ago
  >your retirement plan must involve children or some community inheriting it and taking care of you in your old age. My farmland pays a rent dividend on the order of 2-4%/yr and I don't even have to be there or even show up to collect it. I bought my farmland because I consider it doing my part to preserve the planet. I'm a big believer in the future of locally produced food and more local communities in reducing emissions and _corporate wastefulness_. As a side benefit it will preserve my standard of living. I thoroughly enjoy steak and so do a lot of other people. Livestock, land, and gold have preserved wealth since ancient times.
  - pb7 3y ago
    If your farmland continues to yield 2-4% when shit hits the fan, I will dump my inflated money into an ETF that holds farmland.
    - 29_29 3y ago
      Not a bad time to buy a farm. Prices are coming down; my yield is a little bit different 1/3 of it is wooded/water - but its probably close to 2% plus tax benefits.
29_29 3y ago
I have gold, you have casino chips in a failing empire.
- pb7 3y ago
  You have a yellow metal that's too soft to even make useful tools to tend to your farm. My casino chips are a stake in the future of the world. If they become worthless, I will take your farm by force because no one will be around to stop me.
  - 29_29 3y ago
    > I will take your farm by force because no one will be around to stop me. Ah, you hit on it. That is the attitude! Problem is everyone has that entitlement. Trillions and trillions of claims.
    - pb7 3y ago
      Someone "claims" their share of equities by selling but someone else buys. Today I'm buying to invest in my future, someone that's in retirement is selling to fund their remaining years. Are you suggesting we won't have new generations that buy?
    - ryandrake 3y ago
      I've always thought that the people most vocal about preparing for societal collapse seem to be the people least likely to thrive in anarchy. When there is no law and order, we will be ruled by gangs and warlords, not by bootstrapping libertarians hanging on to gold coins and grandpa's shotgun. Nobody is going to care that you have a deed that shows you "own" a farm or that you put a little fence around it. I have a few acquaintances who consider themselves "peppers". When social distancing and travel restrictions started at the beginning of COVID, they were pretty much the first ones to crack and start complaining on social media about how unfair it was that they couldn't go shopping for khakis. So much for rugged self-reliance!
    - amanaplanacanal 3y ago
      betting on the collapse of the social order is a bad bet. sure, it may happen eventually, but it is unlikely to happen within an average person's lifetime.

wbl 3y ago

Higher taxes is not a default: it's what balancing the budget means

29_29 3y ago
It is impossible to balance a budget with 130% debt to GDP. We crossed the event horizon, every country that has ever crossed this (save Japan which is doing horrible now) has defaulted through very high inflation or out of control deflation [1]. https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_presentations/470/57470/original.pdf https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_presentations/470...
- greatwave1 3y ago
  Are you aware that debt is a cumulative metric, and GDP is an annual metric? If you want to compare apples-to-apples, our budget deficit (an annual metric, which measures the delta in debt) was $1.4 trillion in 2022, which is 5.5% of GDP. It's not impossible to balance a budget with 130% debt to GDP.
  - 29_29 3y ago
    If we did it we would be the first country in history to do so [1] 1. https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_presentations/470/57470/original.pdf https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_presentations/470...
    - peteradio 3y ago
      We are a country of firsts! USA USA!
    - greatwave1 3y ago
      Do you have any source to this claim? The letter that you linked doesn't cite any sources, and doesn't come from a reputable fund (based on a quick SEC search, Hirschmann Capital seems to only managing ~$20m AUM, meaning it's likely a one-man operation)
  - 3y ago

downWidOutaFite 3y ago

What is a long term debt cycle?

29_29 3y ago
Ray Dalio wrote a book on it [1]. But here is a short video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0 1. https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/dp/1982160276 https://www.amazon.com/Changing-World-Order-Nations-Succeed/...

fuoqi 3y ago

>I raided the retirement accounts to buy a home. Buying home at the current prices does not sound wise to me. Even if you expect for printing press to go brrr again, it's likely that before that we will see substantial decline in asset prices.

dangwhy 3y ago
> it's likely that before that we will see substantial decline in asset prices. Amount of ppl waiting for this to pounce is astronomical . And for that reason this will never happen. FOMO is at all time high atm partly due to peer perssure and social media
- 29_29 3y ago
  Could happen. Could not happen. I don't have a crystal ball.
29_29 3y ago
I need a place to live man. I can't wait forever for prices to come down, I've owned a home before, and even though rates suck, now is a better time for sure. It feels like I can shop.
- baremetal 3y ago
  Build your own home. Just do something simple like a gable roof 20x50 or something small to start you can always add to it. In the meantime pickup an RV and live on the land. Used RV's should be cheaper right now.
  - HWR_14 3y ago
    When people say "buy a home", the majority of people are far more concerned with affording the land underneath (or share of a condo building) than the structure itself.
  - 29_29 3y ago
    My grandpa built his home and it was a nightmare. Contractors kept going cheap, he had to watch over them, cost overruns, delays, etc. He probably has a better home than one could ever buy, but I don't have that kind of time or money.

mdorazio 3y ago

Curious how you see this playing out internationally and how you maintain this opinion in the face of Japan (double our debt raio, biggest issue is population decline). Globally, the US debt to GDP ratio is roughly in line with a good chunk of Europe [1]. It seems like for a collapse to happen, the US would have to be worse-positioned than competing countries. Otherwise everyone declines together, which doesn't make much sense. [1] https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-country https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/debt-to-g...

bombcar 3y ago

You may be interested in this book. https://johntreed.myshopify.com/collections/john-t-reed-s-book-on-hyperinflation-and-depression https://johntreed.myshopify.com/collections/john-t-reed-s-bo...