Metaculus puts the odds much higher - around 3%/year. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/ https://www.metaculus.com/qu

Metaculus puts the odds much higher - around 3%/year. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-inv... https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-half-of-taiwan-by-2050/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-...